Six Numbers That Show Why Clinton Is Still the Favorite in 2016 by CARRIE DANN
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But a deep analysis of data from the poll shows that Clinton is still currently the more likely of the two candidates to emerge as the winner when the voting's all over on Nov. 8, 2016.
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The advantage for a generic Democratic candidate over a generic Republican is 4 percentage points
One of the most basic questions we ask in every NBC/WSJ poll is whether or not voters want to see a Republican or a Democrat elected president, no matter who the nominees of each party may be. And as recently as last fall, the generic Republican option edged out the Democratic one. Not so anymore, with 47 percent of voters favoring a Democratic president and 43 percent choosing a Republican one. If the advantage holds, it would defy the notion that Americans are reluctant to grant a party the presidency after it's held the White House for eight years. (The last time that happened? George H.W. Bush in 1988.) Nothing about the unpopular Clinton or the even-less-popular Trump is "generic," but Dems have the advantage on this fundamental measure of party strength.
The Democratic Party is nearly breaking even on favorability, while the GOP is under water.
Barack Obama's approval rating is 51 percent.
Trump is under-performing with white women by 10 points.
Trump's showing a nine-point drop in the suburbs.
Clinton has a 10-point advantage on the commander-in-chief test.
This poll showed that Trump has very significant advantages when it comes to questions about economic issues. He handily beats Clinton when voters are asked which candidate would better on trade, dealing with Wall Street or managing the economy. But Clinton has a ten point advantage (43 percent to 33 percent) when voters are asked who would be the best commander-in-chief. Yes, Clinton's disadvantage on the economy is a big deal, particularly for the significant portion of voters who still aren't feeling any impact from the economic recovery. But an advantage on the commander-in-chief test is something any candidate covets, particularly in courting late deciders and swing voters.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/six-numbers-show-why-clinton-still-favorite-2016-n581691
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