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cthulu2016

(10,960 posts)
Wed Jun 6, 2012, 12:32 AM Jun 2012

A lot of incumbents would lose to nobody, but

beat somebody.

Example:

Do you think somebody other than Jim Smith should be governor? 60% yes.

Do you think Joe Johnson should be governor? 40% yes.

It's a simple dynamic.

A "generic Democrat" was doing pretty well against Reagan a year out from the 1984 election, but the "generic Democrat" isn't a real person. Walter Mondale lost the votes of everyone who loved Reagan and also everyone who disliked Walter Mondale.

Obama would probably lose to a generic opponant but there isn't such a thing. Romney is weaker than a "generic republican."

And so on.

Throw in a 7.5 to 1 money advantage for the incumbent and there's nothing to explain.

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