Wed May 30, 2012, 01:54 PM
WI_DEM (33,395 posts)
New WI Recall Poll has Walker & Barrett tied at 49%
A new poll taken by pollster Celinda Lake — who is a Democrat but is well respected by polling professionals — has found that the battle between Scott Walker and challenger Tom Barrett is now deadlocked, at 49 percent each.
The poll — which will be released later today and was comissioned by the pro-labor Greater Wisconsin Committee’s political fund — also finds that independents are breaking towards Barrett, 49-44.
The poll is an automated one (which means it doesn’t include cell phones) that surveyed 600 likely Wisconsin voters from May 24-28, which means it was in the field until Monday of this week. Its sample: 43 percent Democrats and Dem-leaners; 43 percent Republican and GOP-leaners; and 13 percent non-leaning independents.
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New WI Recall Poll has Walker & Barrett tied at 49% (Original post)
|Jackpine Radical||May 2012||#1|
|yortsed snacilbuper||May 2012||#4|
Response to movonne (Reply #7)
Wed May 30, 2012, 10:14 PM
Poiuyt (12,261 posts)
10. The Marquette poll oversamples conservatives
Once Again Marquette Poll's Sample Grossly Oversamples Conservatives, Undersamples Moderates
Polls are only relevent if their sample is reflective of the electorate. As the graph demonstrates, compared to exit poll data (averaged from 2010, 2008 and 2006) the recently released Marquette poll grossly oversamples conservatives and undersamples moderates.
This is, of course, quite significant considering that the same poll shows Barrett beating Walker 50 to 42% among moderates.
Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
Wed May 30, 2012, 04:21 PM
gratuitous (52,895 posts)
9. Turnout = Everything
Get to the polls, get your friends to the polls. Get your relatives, neighbors, hell, even your enemies to the polls. The more votes, the more better.