Wed May 30, 2012, 01:54 PM

WI_DEM (32,522 posts)

New WI Recall Poll has Walker & Barrett tied at 49%

A new poll taken by pollster Celinda Lake — who is a Democrat but is well respected by polling professionals — has found that the battle between Scott Walker and challenger Tom Barrett is now deadlocked, at 49 percent each.

The poll — which will be released later today and was comissioned by the pro-labor Greater Wisconsin Committee’s political fund — also finds that independents are breaking towards Barrett, 49-44.

The poll is an automated one (which means it doesn’t include cell phones) that surveyed 600 likely Wisconsin voters from May 24-28, which means it was in the field until Monday of this week. Its sample: 43 percent Democrats and Dem-leaners; 43 percent Republican and GOP-leaners; and 13 percent non-leaning independents.

http://www.uppitywis.org/blogarticle/new-celinda-lake-poll-has-race-neck-and-neck-barrett-49-walker-4

11 replies, 1853 views

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11 replies	Author	Time	Post
New WI Recall Poll has Walker & Barrett tied at 49% (Original post)	WI_DEM	May 2012	OP
--and that's before my weekend stint on the phones.	Jackpine Radical	May 2012	#1
mine too...	WI_DEM	May 2012	#2
"dems who sat out the 2010 election are going to vote this time. "	yortsed snacilbuper	May 2012	#4
Doesn't include cell phones,	elleng	May 2012	#3
Re cell phones.	ananda	May 2012	#5
Wouldn't be surprised about that,	elleng	May 2012	#6
Why is the Marquette poll saying that walker is ahead????	movonne	May 2012	#7
Dunno. Maybe comments will shed some light,	elleng	May 2012	#8
The Marquette poll oversamples conservatives	Poiuyt	May 2012	#10
Turnout = Everything	gratuitous	May 2012	#9
+1, GOTV! I believe WI Dems and Indy's can do it!	joshcryer	May 2012	#11

Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed May 30, 2012, 02:01 PM

Jackpine Radical (36,575 posts)

1. --and that's before my weekend stint on the phones.

It's in the bag, people.

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Response to Jackpine Radical (Reply #1)

Wed May 30, 2012, 02:02 PM

WI_DEM (32,522 posts)

2. mine too...

I found great enthusiasm last weekend on calls--also lots of dems who sat out the 2010 election are going to vote this time.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #2)

Wed May 30, 2012, 02:07 PM

yortsed snacilbuper (1,019 posts)

4. "dems who sat out the 2010 election are going to vote this time. "

I guess they learned their lesson?

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed May 30, 2012, 02:05 PM

elleng (40,543 posts)

3. Doesn't include cell phones,

so what's that mean, y'all???

:fingerscrossed:

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Response to elleng (Reply #3)

Wed May 30, 2012, 02:07 PM

ananda (12,540 posts)

5. Re cell phones.

Didn't I recently read an article claiming that more Dems use cell phones than Reeps?

Hope so!

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Response to ananda (Reply #5)

Wed May 30, 2012, 02:12 PM

elleng (40,543 posts)

6. Wouldn't be surprised about that,

and surely younger people, so IF younger Badgers were NOT polled, what's THAT mean???

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed May 30, 2012, 02:39 PM

movonne (9,467 posts)

7. Why is the Marquette poll saying that walker is ahead????

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Response to movonne (Reply #7)

Wed May 30, 2012, 04:13 PM

elleng (40,543 posts)

8. Dunno. Maybe comments will shed some light,

or not.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014131593

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Response to movonne (Reply #7)

Wed May 30, 2012, 10:14 PM

Poiuyt (12,228 posts)

10. The Marquette poll oversamples conservatives

Once Again Marquette Poll's Sample Grossly Oversamples Conservatives, Undersamples Moderates

Polls are only relevent if their sample is reflective of the electorate. As the graph demonstrates, compared to exit poll data (averaged from 2010, 2008 and 2006) the recently released Marquette poll grossly oversamples conservatives and undersamples moderates.

This is, of course, quite significant considering that the same poll shows Barrett beating Walker 50 to 42% among moderates.

http://www.uppitywis.org/blogarticle/once-again-marquette-polls-sample-grossly-oversamples-conservati

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed May 30, 2012, 04:21 PM

gratuitous (49,292 posts)

9. Turnout = Everything

Get to the polls, get your friends to the polls. Get your relatives, neighbors, hell, even your enemies to the polls. The more votes, the more better.

New WI Recall Poll has Walker & Barrett tied at 49%

1. --and that's before my weekend stint on the phones.

2. mine too...

4. "dems who sat out the 2010 election are going to vote this time. "

3. Doesn't include cell phones,

5. Re cell phones.

6. Wouldn't be surprised about that,

7. Why is the Marquette poll saying that walker is ahead????

8. Dunno. Maybe comments will shed some light,

10. The Marquette poll oversamples conservatives

9. Turnout = Everything

11. +1, GOTV! I believe WI Dems and Indy's can do it!