Lets be serious. Do the Republicans really have a chance of winning in 2016?

[AZ Progressive]

I'm talking about the presidency.

We (the Democrats) win if two things happen:

1) The blue wall stays up (266 electoral votes, including the pacific west states, great lakes states, northeastern states, as well as Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico)

2) We snag at least one of the battleground states: Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Virginia

No. 1 is possible if Democrats come out and vote. Both Hillary and Bernie seem to be strong candidates, and outrage against the Republican candidate may also drive Democrats.

No. 2 is easier for the Democratic candidate because all the money can be concentrated into just one state (or two states to be safe.) Republicans have to win all of the battleground states. Republicans can bring out the base, but if Democrats bring out the base it nullifies the Republicans in that area. Independents may be turned off by the extremism of the Republican candidate. Of all the candidates, it seems that Marco Rubio is the least threatening of the higher polling candidates, but he seems to be a weak candidate. Trump, Carson, Cruz, and Jeb Bush may inspire enough fear in Democrats to go out and vote.

Of course, Super PACs can carpet bomb the election with negative ad after negative ad, but that may have a diminishing effect and may actually aggravate Democrats to actually motivate them to vote against the Republicans. Hillary for one has been so relentlessly attacked that the sympathy she generates can motivate Democrats to go out and vote. Also, Obama was called so many different things, including Socialist, and that had no effect on voters.

The Terrorism card is perhaps their best chance, but current elections are not won by swing voters as much as in the past.

[LonePirate]

1. IA and VA are solidly blue in presidential elections. They are not battlegrounds.

VA is no longer battleground despite what the media would have people believe. The DC suburbs are far too populous and far too Democratic for the state to turn red in a presidential election.

[underpants]

16. Correct if the work is done

Yes NoVA ("occupied Virginia" I heard it called by a Repub here in Richmond) dominates with help from the City of Richmond and Eastern Henrico (really Western Henrico too) holding ground with the other Richmond area counties which are red. Hampton and Norfolk do well in Tidewater against some really red areas. College towns from C'ville to the ones in the Valley have great turn outs to weaken the deep red voting in the other parts of those areas.

NoVA is the key though.

[NV Whino]

2. You forgot the other element

Election fraud: unreliable or tampered machines; voter elimination by various means; moving or removing voting sites; changing voting hours…. Well you get the idea.

[yuiyoshida]

5. This!

And it could happen again.

[AZ Progressive]

6. Yup, that may be a big one, with Republicans controlling Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada

in their state governments.

Election fraud in those states may threaten a Democratic win.

[MrBig]

3. Yes they do

The biggest mistake a party can make is believing they've got some sort of impenetrable wall in the electoral college. It was 10 years ago when people wondered if and how a Democrat could ever win the White House again.

No state is a lock at this point. Things can change quickly.

[onehandle]

4. Who was wondering that? Bush only got re-elected because of 9/11.

Before 9/11 he was on course to be the least popular one-termer in history.

Kerry came within a few thousand votes of beating him.

[Art_from_Ark]

7. Kerry came within a few *electoral votes* of beating Bush

However, Bush had 3 million more popular votes than Kerry.

[SoCalMusicLover]

9. The '04 Election Was A Fraud

Dim Son NEVER legitimately won an election, including 2004.

Kerry was too much of wimp to pursue anything, although it probably wouldn't have mattered since Dimwit and his henchmen were never going to give up the oval office.

Their whole fucking family have skeletons in their closet that we'll never know about, and I will go to my grave with the belief that voting machines gave IDIOT the '04 election.

[Art_from_Ark]

11. Florida 2000 was very obviously rigged

Ohio 2004 was less obvious, but yeah, it was probably rigged as well.

[Sherman A1]

13. I disagree

The GOP has really no chance of winning. The Democrats on the other hand do have a chance of losing the election and it is theirs to lose not the GOP's to win. At this point I believe the Democrats could run a cardboard box and win the election.

[Mojorabbit]

28. One terrorist attack here and we lose the election

Look at what happened partly because of the ebola scare.

[AZ Progressive]

8. With election fraud though, if Trump wins the nomination the establishment may not be as eager...

to help him. They would be more likely to do so for an establishment candidate.

Of course, if Trump goes rogue and third party, then its pretty much certain that the Democratic candidate will win.

[akbacchus_BC]

10. No, I have never seen such a line up of assholes for the republican nominee.

It's a bus full of clowns, who on earth will vote for them, even if Trump gets the nod. He cannot win even if the Evangelicals and die hard racists vote for him. I am so glad they are running a bunch of idiots. Talk about dumbing down America, that is what those idiots are!

[1939]

14. Heard stuff like that in 1980 NT

[Rex]

12. No.

[Douglas Carpenter]

15. of course, there is always a chance. If the economy is having problems or the fear of terrorism

rises for some reason it is especially possible.

Yes, the Republican slate is a particularly bizarre clown car this season. Well, that just means that there is the possibility of seeing a real kook win.

[underpants]

17. Always remember 78-3

Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii equal 78 E votes
Alaska is 3

That alone is about 22% of all the votes you need to win.

[madville]

18. A major factor will be the outcome

Of the current FBI investigation into Hillary's email. A few aides get charged for mishandling information or lying to federal investigators and that changes things a bit. I seriously doubt Hillary gets in any legal trouble herself, she comes across as oblivious and inept when it comes to the technology and information classification issues but that may all be by design to insulate her.

If nothing comes from that investigation though I think she has a pretty good shot at winning it all. I'm thinking it's going to be a Rubio/Cruz ticket.

[ileus]

19. No matter who they run or who we run, they don't have the numbers to win.

The GOP will never win the top office ever again....we have them out numbered where it counts, and will only make gains as we turn all new minorities and hispanic voters into Democratic majorities over the next decade or so.

9 years from now there won't be but 3 or 4 red states on the map.

[madville]

20. They are one terror attack away from sweeping

2016 elections. A Muslim and/or refugee linked major terror attack happens on US soil and the Republicans get an instant 10 point bump(mainly from independents) and heavier turnout from their side.

[tavernier]

21. No.

[dawg]

22. I know you are talking about the Presidential election, but ...

the Republicans will almost certainly retain control of the House. They will also most likely retain control of most state legislatures.

So they will certainly "win" the election - even if Hillary wins in a landslide.

The Presidency is important, but we really need to work at becoming a national party again.

[FlatBaroque]

23. Guaranteed GOP victory if Hillary is the nominee

Bookmark this.

[dembotoz]

24. still up in the air.....we need to fight like it is to the death

cause they will work very hard to

[Donald Ian Rankin]

25. I think they're probably the favourites to win.

It's very rare for a party to hold the presidency for more than 8 years in a row.

[abelenkpe]

26. No

The real race is the democratic primary. Pick accordingly.

The GE is for congress.

[TeddyR]

27. Depends on who the Republicans nominate

I doubt Trump has any chance in a general election. Rubio is probably the best Republican candidate, but he would likely lose to Clinton unless there was some intervening factor like another scandal late next year. I don't believe there's any real chance that Sanders will be the nominee. Republicans will keep the House and majority of state legislatures. Unsure about where the senate ends up. And I think states like Virginia and Colorado will be in play for Republicans. The idea that Dems are going to dominate going forward is a silly one. Politics is a game of ebbs and flows.