CNN reporting Russia pivots 180, now says it supports the Free Syrian forces.

[99th_Monkey]

Is Putin blinking to oust Assad, or doing a 3-dyminsional chess fake-out?

[riversedge]

1. Well. best wait and see.

[UncleTomsEvilBrother]

2. I think it's chess

Methinks we'll see the USA pull back on pressuring Russia to leave Crimea.

[4139]

3. May support the free Syrian army against isis. It's the FYA that may shift direction

[HereSince1628]

4. Russia and the CIS desire Mediterranean ports for naval forces

They have much invested in Syria to realize that. Whatever move they make will be to protect and realize return on their investment in that enterprise.

Don't expect Putin's decisions to go beyond the interests of the CIS

[CJCRANE]

11. IIIRC the Russian base has been there since 1971.

The Russians are just protecting their existing interests.

Put the shoe on the other foot and see how it feels: the Pentagon probably wouldn't take too kindly to a foreign-backed uprising in Bahrain, for example.

[HereSince1628]

12. Yes. And we've got some obligation not to forget how we/they got to this

because it's not some -NEW- provocation, but rather, perhaps, an old "provocation"/response set against a number of NATO bases across the eastern mediterranean intended to 'bottle up' the Soviet fleet in their little pond of the Black Sea.

[backscatter712]

14. Obama may have made an offer to Putin:

"Play ball with us, and we'll help you secure your naval base."

[mwrguy]

5. Obama bent him to his will

It was only a matter of time.

[karynnj]

6. Two possibilities not mentioned that I have seen yet

1) CNN is confused
2) Russia has - probably to a limited degree - bought the Obama/Kerry argument that given the Sunni population in that country, there can't be a long term solution that does not include Sunnis. (They are the majority population in Syria and the majority of all Muslims.) Russia has always spoken of including Sunnis, who are not overtly fighting Assad who are critical of him. This would expand the group to those who would accept the goal of a unified country.

It may be that Lavrov and Kerry are trying to get a critical mass of Sunnis - excluding AL Nusra (which both the US and Russia attacked) and ISIS - united with the Syrian government. If this is the case, there might be some real hope. From the US side, it positions a (fractured now but possibily unified) Syria that can INCLUDING BOTH SHIA AND SUNNI target regaining their land from ISIS. (Note that US pushed Iraq to create a more inclusive government that included the Sunni minority - to better fight ISIS.

For the US, in addition to being a factor that would be very helpful in getting a political solution for a transition government, it offers some FSA a future in a new Syrian government.

If 2) is basically the case, I really hope that it can hold - and that the Russia and the US can get their clients to accept it.

[CJCRANE]

7. He said he will support them against ISIS. nt

[99th_Monkey]

9. This Syrian mess is so convoluted

Russia attacking Anti-Assad forces and 'supporting Anti-Assad forces' against ISIS at the same time.

makes my poor head hurt.

[CJCRANE]

10. I think Putin's trying to flush out the so-called "moderate" rebels.

So far he hasn't had a straight answer about who, what or where they are.

Obviously the real moderates will be the ones they can negotiate with, rather than the barbarians who just want to wipe out all other groups.

[CJCRANE]

8. BTW the Syrian Army just got the leader of Al Nusra.

Plugging my own thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027286171

[Bradical79]

13. What did he say?

Not seeing anything on the website.

[99th_Monkey]

15. It was one CNN report hours ago, basically just saying what I said

on their banner line. I didn't hear the whole report, and just tuned into the last part of it,
but that was the jest of it. Sorry for not having more details or a link or anything.

Something like "Russia says it's helping the Free Syrian forces, to fight ISIS"

[MisterP]

16. same approach as his oligarchs: play nice and get a little cut, or get cut out

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinatra_doctrine

[pampango]

17. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia ready to provide air support for moderate opposition.

Lavrov also stressed that Russia was ready to provide aerial support to Syrian moderate opposition.

“We are ready to include the patriotic opposition, including the so-called Free Syrian Army, to provide it with aerial support, although we were declined information on where, according to US data, terrorists are located, and where is the patriotic opposition,” Lavrov added.

According to the foreign minister, the fact that US Secretary of State John Kerry proposed to hold a meeting on the ministerial level in Vienna indicates that Washington has an understanding of the necessity of Russia’s participation in the settlement of the Syrian crisis.

Lavrov also said Russia is willing to provide air support to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in its fight against terrorism in Syria.

"We are ready to back the patriotic opposition, including the so-called Free Syrian Army, with our air support.

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151024/1029045104/Russia-US-Coordination-Syria.html