Exclusive: Walkout at Taliban leadership meeting raises specter of split

[rug]

Fri Jul 31, 2015 3:44pm EDT
PESHAWAR, Pakistan | By Jibran Ahmad

At the Taliban meeting this week where Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour was named as the Islamist militant group's new head, several senior figures in the movement, including the son and brother of late leader Mullah Omar, walked out in protest.

The display of dissent within the group's secretive core is the clearest sign yet of the challenge Mansour faces in uniting a group already split over whether to pursue peace talks with the Afghan government and facing a new, external threat, Islamic State.

Rifts in the Taliban leadership could widen after confirmation this week of the death of elusive founder Omar.

Mansour, Omar's longtime deputy who has been effectively in charge for years, favors talks to bring an end to more than 13 years of war. He recently sent a delegation to inaugural meetings with Afghan officials hosted by Pakistan, hailed as a breakthrough.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/31/us-afghanistan-taliban-exclusive-idUSKCN0Q51GK20150731

[Igel]

1. That's how these things typically end, historically.

A figure arises, declares himself emir, gets a following, creates a mess for a decade or three.

Then he dies, and either there's a dynasty or a power struggle immediately between a son or the appointed heir and those who actually ran things. Usually the power struggle allows foes to regroup or the territory splits into little pieces and the status quo ante is restored.

If there's a dynasty, then it goes on for a generation or two until there are enough potential heirs that when the khalif or ruler dies they can't decide who's going to be in charge and that allows foes to regroup or the territory splits into little pieces.

Sometimes there's a strong leader who comes out of it and the cycle's extended by a generation or two. Tribal and communal conflicts are annoying.