Sanders surge is becoming a bigger problem for Clinton

[Scuba]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/245496-sanders-surge-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-for-clinton

One of the problems that the Sanders surge poses for Clinton is that Democrats say there’s a risk in taking him head on. Doing so could rally his supporters, alienate liberals the Democratic nominee will need in the fall of 2016 and elevate Sanders as a challenger.

“They’re not going to go after him publicly, and it’d be wrong to do so,” said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf, who worked on then-President Clinton’s 1996 reelection bid. “She needs to keep slogging along and make the kinds of policy arguments that will eventually make some of the uniqueness around Sanders dissipate.”

...

The Vermont senator has been able to raise money. His campaign brought in $1.5 million in the first 24 hours of its launch, a total surpassing the amounts raised by GOP Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.), Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Ted Cruz (Texas), who are all running for president. He's said he received 200,000 small dollar donations since announcing, with the amounts averaging $40.

Still, he won't have the cash that the Clinton juggernaut will have. And Sanders does not have Clinton's name recognition. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, she leads Sanders by 47 percentage points.

Policy differences get little attention here, but interesting regardless.

[morningfog]

1. Until Hillary takes him head on, which she will,

her campaign will do the opposition research and spread the smears and hit pieces through insulated dissemination.

It has already been happening. As this article points out, when she feels enough hear from him, which she will, she'll go after him directly. But she will have to be careful in that.

[Le Taz Hot]

3. ". . . insulated dissemination."

What a great term!

It also explains the recent charges of racism, pro-NRA, etc., that has, quite miraculously, come out of the blue with many a Clinton loyalist posting exactly the same talking points all at the same time.

[morningfog]

9. Exactly. It shows that Hillary is feeling the heat and has

gotten to work via her surrogates. When she takes him on directly, we'll know team Hillary's expensive internal polling have her very worried.

She would prefer he get knocked out sooner rather than later. She does not want to debate him. It would only hurt her.

[Divernan]

27. Lots of "insulated dissemination" of pure crap postings to be found for sure.

Lately, these posters have been making up distorted "factual" claims out of thin air. When asked for links, of course, they cannot provide them. Here's one incredible example (and note this rally was 15 years ago and wasn't "her" rally - she was one of 5 speakers (Other speakers at the demonstration included Gov. Pataki, Nobel laureate and Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel and Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert) - and she was the only one booed.

Poster w/Hillary icon: I guess you missed her 10K attendance rally?

And by the way, Hillary supports strong gun control.

My response (which the poster never replied to, of course!)

Star Member Divernan (12,347 posts)
154. Was that this "10K attendance rally?" where she was booed and jeered

Now I thought that her largest turnout was her Roosevelt Island gathering which her own campaign estimated as having a 5,500 attendance. How could I have missed what you describe as "her 10K attendance rally?" So I googled Hillary Clinton and 10,000 and rally and this is what I came up with:

http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/news/hillary-takes-hits-10-000-rally-israel-article-1.887732 So what and where was this rally you referred to, if not this one?

HILLARY TAKES HITS AS 10,000 RALLY FOR ISRAEL
BY William Goldschlag
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
Friday, October 13, 2000, 12:00 AM

Shouting over jeers from many of the 10,000 at a pro-Israel rally, Hillary Rodham Clinton urged support yesterday for her husband's efforts "to end the violence" as well as for the embattled Jewish state. But her Senate opponent, Rep. Rick Lazio, ripped the Clinton administration for not placing the blame for the current conflict solely on Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Blasting the U. S. decision to abstain and not veto a UN Security Council resolution that slammed Israel, Lazio asked, "Is this any way to treat a friend?

" "There must be no equivocation," said Lazio, who won cheers and shook hands in the crowd jamming Second Ave. from 42nd to 48th Sts. Mayor Giuliani also bashed the Clinton administration for being too soft on Arafat and the Palestinians. Other speakers at the demonstration included Gov. Pataki, Nobel laureate and Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel and Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert. The Mideast turmoil has created an October surprise in the Senate race. It is an opportunity for Lazio and a danger for the First Lady in the battle for Jewish votes, because she and President Clinton long treated Arafat as a credible partner for peace. Clinton's poll numbers among Jews are at an all-time high. But she got there only after arduous fence-mending following her infamous kiss of Arafat's wife in Ramallah last year. The hard-liners who booed her yesterday likely would oppose her no matter what, though. "A zebra doesn't change her stripes, and I don't trust her," said Tobie Newman, 75, of Freeport, L.I.

But with each escalation of the violence, her campaign grows more anxious that her support among a broader spectrum of Jews could be shaken. "She needs to be extremely supportive of Israel," said Dr. Peggy Wurm, 43, of Manhattan, a Clinton supporter at the rally. "The old baggage from the past is there. It's hard for people to get it out of their minds," said Assemblyman Dov Hikind (D-Brooklyn) from Israel, where he was caught up in a battle at a funeral procession for a slain rabbi Wednesday. Hikind, a political conservative, said the turmoil he witnessed will influence his decision on whom to support. The First Lady broke with her husband Sunday over the UN abstention and has refused to join administration critics of some Israeli actions. Since White House-sponsored peace talks broke down in July, her criticism of Arafat has grown harsher. Yet when she called yesterday on Arafat to end the violence and denounced the "shameful" and "one-sided" UN resolution, some in the crowd chanted, "Tell your husband.
" Another person yelled, "Go kiss Arafat's wife.

[Betty Karlson]

78. I've noticed that trend too.

It betrays an ugly streak of character on the part of who-ever tries to support Mrs. Clinton that way.

[merrily]

5. That was the M.O. in 2008. Leaks to the press, campaign surrogates, then BOOM.

[jwirr]

18. They learned that from the campaign against Kerry regarding his military service. It worked then

but a lot of people have gotten a lot smarter. I hope.

[upaloopa]

23. So how many months will it take for Bernie to make

up a 47 point deficit? I guess Hillary will be real afraid then. I think it will take an eternity so I doubt this OP has any relevance.

[A Simple Game]

34. You do realize he only needs to take 24 points away from her and she is in second place?

Not quite as high a mountain now is it? But other than that national polls are meaningless a fact you should know.

Presidential elections are fifty state elections not one national elections. Latest New Hampshire poll has Hillary at 41% and Bernie at 31%. Bernie gets 10% more of the undecided or takes 6% more away from Hillary or a combination of both and he has the lead in the New Hampshire primary. Does it sound doable now? Do you think Hillary is afraid yet? I would bet she is.

[madokie]

39. The math is in our corner

[A Simple Game]

45. Funny thing about math,

if I take one from you I'm not one closer, I'm now two closer.
Example: Hillary 41% - Bernie 31%, Hillary 40% - Bernie 32%. See how that works? 1% move = 2% change, the difference is not what you think it is. A 10% lead is actually only a 5% lead, hardly insurmountable.

Also for consideration, Hillary has been running for years and Bernie has only been in for a month, who do you think the undecided are going to end up supporting? If they wanted Hillary they would already be supporting her, they are just waiting to see who is the best of the rest. Yes, they may end up supporting someone other than Bernie, but it should be obvious they don't want Hillary either.

How did that math thing work out in '08? Maybe you should look for a new corner man.

[madokie]

47. Don't forget I agree with you

I'm in the same corner as you are

[A Simple Game]

48. Please forgive me, yes you are. I do this all the time,

forget to look at the name of the poster and assume it was the poster I originally responded to.

If the first poster I responded to said the same thing you said would have the opposite meaning.

Again my apologies and not such a bad corner after all.

[madokie]

49. No problem

Its a good corner we have here, you and I

[A Simple Game]

52. Not a good corner for long. It's way too small, soon we're going to need a bigger one.

But even at this size it has a nice atmosphere.

[upaloopa]

51. Ever since Bernie announced there have

been all kinds of Hail Mary ideas on how and why he is going to win. Come the day he drops out I wish there could be a thread listing them all.

[A Simple Game]

61. You mean like President Obama is dropping out next year?

That's not dropping out, he just can't run again. Think you can remember to start a thread for Bernie in 2024?

Get some help if you can, you don't seem to be that good at math.

[A Simple Game]

69. I seem to remember one of those threads from 2008... now who was that about? n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. Afraid???

Hillary enjoys 80% favorability ratings among all Democrats and 90% favorability among African American Democrats and 81% favorability among Latino Democrats... She has been in the public eye for twenty five years...We know all her foibles, real or imagined. She is a fixed quantity.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_61615.pdf

pg. 37

I was looking at data from the 08 primaries. HRC garnered nearly two thirds of the vote among Latino and glbtq Democrats...





http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2008/02/examining_why_baracks_mojo_wit.html







Bernie's supporters love to bring up the O8 campaign and the fact she lost to Barack Obama. That analogy is facile. Barack Obama was young, vibrant, good looking, charismatic, and was one of our party's rising stars as evidenced by him being given the keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention...

And even with this if Hillary was even able to mitigate her losses among African Americans in the primaries she would have won the nomination. She lost them by staggering amounts. Once Barack defeated Hillary in the IA primary and demonstrated he had crossover appeal African Americans began to support him by staggering margins which is completely understandable.

There is no Barack Obama in this race...


The money shot:

Clinton continues to be dominant nationally with every segment of the Democratic electorate- she's over 60% with liberals, moderates, women, men, Hispanics, whites, and voters in every age group and she's polling at 83% with African Americans. The lack of racial diversity in New Hampshire is one reason Sanders is coming closer to her there
given her dominance with black voters nationally.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_61615.pdf

She is likely as afraid of Bernie Sanders as Floyd Mayweather was of Manny Pacquiao and the results proved he had every reason not to be afraid.

[OhZone]

44. Funny how the odds of Hillary winning seem to be rising not diminishing -

Predictwise has her going up from 78 to 84 the last couple of days. Oh well.

[morningfog]

55. One primary at a time. He's closed the gap in NH.

Iowa next. NV, SC and CO to follow. Some will be much harder than others. Until Super Tuesday, he does not have to catch her in the national (read name brand) polls.

[rock]

2. Sounds right to me

For this time around it appears that this is going to mainly be a battle of ideas. Neither Hillary nor Bernie should personally attack the other or for that matter their ideas except by proposing better alternatives. I believe the voting populace (at least the Dems) is not in a mood for shit-slinging when we have so very many serious problems that need to be addressed.

[Motown_Johnny]

4. What policy arguments is he talking about?

Is he suggesting that Hillary fight on Bernie's terms? If she wants to dissipate his uniqueness then she will need to try and sound like him on these policies.

I don't see that working. He comes off as authentic and she... well... not so much.

If she thinks she can parrot him to defeat him then she is doomed.

[merrily]

6. Parroting (sort of) Warren, Sanders and Obama's more populist initatives

does indeed seem to be her strategy so far. She sure isn't running on the DLC philosophies.

It seems to be working with some people. Probably mostly with those who don't know the history.

I say (sort of) because there is always a bit of a shift. For example, Bernie talks about wealth inequality, where she mentions only income inequality. Most people would not even notice the change, but it's very significant. Obama said free junior college, she said "to the extent possible," or some qualifier of that kind. "If possible," sounds so reasonable, yet it's an "out" the size of Texas. Size of infinity, actually.

[99Forever]

8. Senator Al calls them weasel words.

Pretty sounding, but actually almost meaningless.

Bernie doesn't use them, it's honesty and integrity. Neoliberals spew them as easily as they breath.

[merrily]

10. I try to watch out for them these days.

[99Forever]

11. Me too.

Something I suppose I should thank Barack Obama for, if I could get over the feeling of betrayal.

[Plucketeer]

33. Exactly!

I hate calling a (D) prez a "liar", but it's getting easier with provoked practice.

[Dustlawyer]

20. As the Bernie threat grows, I suspect her Donors will give her a few bones to offer up

to us. They don't want to give us ANYTHING, but they will to stop him if he continues gaining strength. I hope he has Katrina type force when we hit the polls!

[upaloopa]

25. Bernie threat?

[donf]

26. First they ignore you,

then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

-MK Gandhi

[DisgustipatedinCA]

29. ...and they also keep posting in a thread they claim not to care about.

That poster is burning a lot of ink trying to explain to us how Sanders is of no consequence. His actions belie his words.

[A Simple Game]

42. We are up to the second stage, I say the fight comes shortly after July 4. n/t

[AtomicKitten]

7. The debates will move the dial for Bernie.

He just needs face time with America and his message will resonate.

[jwirr]

21. Face time and good questions. We have seen all too many debates that totally scewed the point.

That again is up to the DNC.

[AtomicKitten]

31. Good point.

The DNC isn't exactly an unbiased entity.

[jwirr]

32. No they are not and that makes me more angry than anything Hillary supporters can do.

[Plucketeer]

35. I thought "DNC"

was Dems Need Clinton?

[jwirr]

73. Pretty close now a days.

[KingCharlemagne]

72. While I'm not an expert in every facet of Sanders' career, what I have seen is that he has

an amazing talent (ability) to turn a non sequitur back on topic in an instant and does so with a graciousness that never insults the interlocutor's bona fides but instead folds him or her back into the question at hand.

It is an amazing rhetorical strength and one I hope more Americans soon get to witness. God knows, Sanders will need it once the corporate whore media really starts in full throttle.

[jwirr]

74. That is so true. I think that is one of the reasons people hear him talk about one subject and want

more.

[DCBob]

12. I dont think its a problem for her at all.

She can play the "elder" statesman as compared to the "elder" socialist. She will win with that every time.

[marmar]

13. Using "socialist" as a perjorative is losing its efficacy.

[RiverNoord]

24. Strangely enough, it finally seems to be.

It's fascinating to me that 'socialist' is a description that applies very substantially to virtually every modern state. Having any kind of government unemployment insurance program is socialist. So is nutrition assistance for people who are in a position where they need it. Assisting the elderly and disabled financially, e.g., Social Security, is socialist.

Individual bankruptcy protection is socialist, and that's in the Constitution. So is the power to regulate interstate commerce. Indeed, the power to spend for the general welfare of the Union is utterly socialist on its face.

Having a large agency of government dedicated to the exploration of space, for the benefit of all? Very socialist. Here's a big one: prohibition of hereditary titles and the guarantee of a Republican form of government for the citizens of each state? Absolutely no monarchies in this country - a great many nations of Europe never made it that far. Socialist. Equal protection of the laws for all? Fundamentally socialist.

However, it seems to have taken a decent, smart, popular and forthright kind of guy who openly embraces the term to wipe out years of propaganda demonizing the term for many.

I've been arguing the same thing about the term 'liberal' for years...

[redstateblues]

28. Wearing the tag "Socialist" in the General

Would be toxic. I keep seeing long explanations about how it won't matter once people understand that it's really great thing. Calling himself Socialist is Bernie's biggest mistake so far.

[RiverNoord]

36. I don't know that that is the case any more.

He seems to be filling venues with every campaign stop, and it appears that some long-term Republicans are actually finding his stated policy aims to be appealing. I suspect that there are a great many Republicans who are tired of buying into the right-wing propaganda machine's assertions that its party's candidates are populist.

Also, Vermont was a Republican-leaning state before he began winning elections there. Now it's really, really not. Whether his activities while in office have much to do with that or not is something I don't know, but it's hard to imagine that his long-term service as the state's only representative to the House has had no effect on that at all.

[RiverNoord]

37. Additionally, if his proposed policies are popular,

the right-wing propaganda machine will get absolutely nowhere by screaming 'Socialist!' at every turn. If he is pushing policy proposals that turn out to have wide popular support, and then those voters get hammered with 'Socialist!' left and right, it would probably backfire massively.

[svpadgham]

38. It makes no difference.

Whoever wins the primary is going to be called Socialist, Communist, Anti-business, unpatriotic, and any number of things by the right regardless of what their record shows. I just hope the less informed voters are not swayed by that type of language, and hearing it said about our current President ad nauseum will kind of jade them against it. That said, I'm all in for Bernie.

[Plucketeer]

40. Yeah, but see....

He understands that. And he knows he can't hide from it - pretend he never said such. And I don't think I've seen any of the earlier news interviews that didn't start with: "So - you say your a socialist. What's up with that???" Sanders answers and that's it. It's gonna look funny for those questioners to keep dredging up that same, tired question, over and over as time goes on.

Now if they'd just start asking Clinton about her Corporotoctic leanings. "Senator Clinton, would you like to share about your 10 most generous donors? Did they give you that money to facilitate you leaning things in favor of this country's disenfranchised?"

[jwirr]

75. Can you name one thing he has been talking about that is not in the Democratic platform? If

anyone listens to him he comes off as pure FDR Democrat. He caucuses with the Democratic caucus and supports the same things they do. He has never run as a socialist even though ballots in most states have a Socialist Party and candidates on them in every general election. And most important what he is saying is resonating with the people. He is saying he knows what our problems are and has for 40 years. And he does not give canned empty answers when it comes to what should be done about them. He has answers.

Socialist today is much more about social/economic justice than it is about government owned industry. In fact the countries he cites are the Scandinavian countries of Europe. They are all Capitalist with good people programs. The big difference is that they have universal health care and other people programs.

Yes, there will be states that are still living in the cold war era but we were not going to win them anyhow. I know Hillary thinks she can but I think she forgets how those states hated her and Bill when they were in office.

[OhZone]

41. True - but -

not enough to allow him to win much.

[R B Garr]

43. *socialist draft dodger* would have been worse.

Thankfully, Bill Clinton had the chiclets to take on that draft dodger pejorative when he ran 20-something years when he faced that issue head-on.

I'm wondering if Bernie never ran nationally before because of how he would have been labeled and dismissed immediately. The Clintons have cleared the path for socialist draft dodgers to run now. There was a time that military service was an unspoken requirement and, even with stellar military service, democrats were swift-boated by the right. Of course, then Bush-son came along and his limited service wasn't a problem for the hypocritical rightwing, so it's kind of dropped off now since they have no decent military service candidates.

[jwirr]

79. Bernie has never been that interested in running nationally. He is not a climber. But what he did

do is see the need for a long term progressive today. He told us point blank that he would run if a no one else on the progressive left ran against centrist Hillary. And do not forget - it is people like me and his other supporters on DU and across the country who pushed for him to get in the race so that there would not be a coronation which would not have been good for either him or Hillary.

[DCBob]

59. Who said it was "pejorative"?

I have no problem with the term.. its the vast majority of American voters who probably wont like it.

[RiverNoord]

15. Except that her period as Secretary of State was

characterized by more prominent perceived failures than successes, and she personally played a substantial part in the negotiation of the TPP. No, I don't think she will be able to effectively use that experience against Sanders.

Her record as U.S. Senator is unremarkable, and she lost the 2008 Democratic Party nomination to Barack Obama, who became President.

Realistically, she has a cult of personality aura to run on, and little else, against Sanders.

[jwirr]

22. An elder statesman who has never run on a socialist ticket even though we do have one on our

ballots. Your surrogate message has been heard and rejected.

[madokie]

14. When you have bodies and souls

you don't need money so much. at an rate that figures out to be 8 million bucks in 24 hours. sounds like a lot of good can come from that. I know its growing because I've seen him a few bucks twice since then.

#feelthebern

[jwirr]

16. She also has to be careful how she attacks him behind the scenes. The DNC is doing her no

favors if they take sides. I get more angry at that than I do an outright attack on policies. So they are caught between playing a level playing field (to coin a popular phrase) and not being far enough left.

[abelenkpe]

17. He won't have the cash or the recognizable brand name

Because cynically that's what's perceived as necessary to win. Thanks Citizens United. Great system.

[Hoppy]

19. Then she announces support for ending Citizens United. We all agree with that. But

as president, she would have no legal control over ending C.U. So its just meaningless.

[Divernan]

30. Re: Citizens United & HRC's potential USSC nominations:

If I had a dollar for every time I've seen: "But, but, but . . . the Supreme Court appointments! ! !"

How incredibly gullible, naive, blind to political realities and/or lacking in worldly experience can someone be who does not recognize that corporate/Wall Street donations/quid pro quos will come home to roost with a profiteering vengeance on any presidential candidate who has accepted tens of millions of dollars from them in a combination of campaign donations, personal payments for speeches to said candidate and spouse, and "gifts" to said candidate's family non-profit organization. Nowhere is this more vital to said corporate interests than in appointments to the Supreme Court.

Here's the script, kiddos!

Corporate input on Supreme Court appointments:

"Here's the deal. Your supreme court nominations can be soft on social issues. We don't give a fuck if gays marry or women can get abortions. Makes no difference to our profiteering. But by god they better leave Citizens United in place and not approve prosecution of war crimes."

[kath]

53. Boom! great post.

You should seriously consider making it an OP at some point.

[Hoppy]

54. Don't encourage him. He may be some kinda pinko commie.

Yes, Martha, its sarcasm.

[Divernan]

60. FYI, DiverNAN is another progressive female for Sanders!

[L0oniX]

67. ...and make sure TPP finally passes ...in paybacks for all that money given to Hillary.

[ucrdem]

50. NH demographics favor Clinton and that's not going to change:

Sanders and Clinton are essentially tied among men in New Hampshire, according to the Suffolk University poll, but Clinton holds a 19-percentage-point lead among women. Clinton also has a nearly 2-to-1 advantage among seniors in the state, who are more likely to vote in a Democratic primary.


http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/245496-sanders-surge-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-for-clinton

[zappaman]

56. I expect her to drop out any day now.

I heard they are in panic mode at Clinton headquarters and people are terrified.

[Autumn]

63. Of course the people at Clinton headquarters aren't terrified and in panic mode over Bernie.

Yet, but they will get there... real soon.

[SaranchaIsWaiting]

57. Speaking the truth makes Bernie very appealing.

He is more a messenger than a politician and more and more people will be seeing that in the coming months.

[HappyMe]

58. By all the stupid smear posts

against Sanders I'm seeing, I would say some are worried.

[AzDar]

62. Bernie!!

[DesmondFoster]

64. This is nice but

In this game, money is the most important thing, and Hillary likely has more than she needs - and can get a whole lot more if she needs it.

The Clintons know their way around this game. Sanders is going to need a minor miracle to truly get within shouting distance.

And while I have concerns about his overall electability if he WAS the candidate, those concerns extend to Hillary as well. I just feel rather uneasy about the upcoming election but I guess time will tell.

[Chickaletta]

66. Since Hillary Clinton is depending on nationwide polls, and since she forgot one key detail...

that it's a 50 state election, and one has to work on each state, and not go by the nationwide polls.

Bernie is closing in the gap in NH, and I'm sure the next Iowa numbers will show a huge shift towards Bernie, gaining rapidly.

South Carolina will be interesting, Bernie hasn't had the chance to meet with the South Carolina folks.... and I'm pretty sure that they'll connect to Bernie too.

[brooklynite]

76. You mean like the polls in IA, PA, FL and SC...

...that show her with 50-60% of the Primary vote?

I would argue that it's the Sanders' supporters who have ignored the fact that it's a 50-State Primary, and that after IA and NH, Sanders is going to need the resources to campaign in multiple States where retail politicking isn't practical.

[L0oniX]

68. K & R The truth is her real problem.

[sabrina 1]

70. I disagree with the Hill. Every candidate for the WH needs to be willing to debate other candidates,

not hide behind handlers and advisers.

They are right that if Hillary did debate Bernie it would be a disaster for her, because it would simply highlight the vast differences between her record and his on some of the most important decisions they had to make over the past decades.

HIS record shows good judgement, excellent foresight, predicting the results of a vote eg, on the Iraq War which he voted against.

But the people have a RIGHT to see candidates without their scripts so they can make informed decisions.

And if they don't, then they will go with the person who is not hiding from them. In this case, Bernie.

[Scuba]

71. As well as good judgement, excellent foresight, Bernie's record demonstrates a moral ...

... and ethical basis for his actions. I see that as the key differentiator between Bernie and others running for POTUS.

[peacebird]

77. She can make all the policy statements she wants, it can't differentiate the fact Bernie is constant

And she twists whichever way the polls do. Bernie has an honest, authentic appeal. Hillary not so much.