Fri May 4, 2012, 07:26 PM
WillyT (52,766 posts)
Battleground Virginia: Trouble for Mitt - WashingtonMonthly
By Ed Kilgore - WashingtonMonthly
May 03, 2012 5:44 PM
When Barack Obama won Virginia in 2008 (by a healthy six percentage points, nearly his national margin), alarm bells went off in many Republican strategic circles. After all, the Old Dominion had not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, spurning southerners like Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton even in good years for the Donkey Party. Since Democrats also held both U.S. Senate seats and had won the previous two gubernatorial races, it was obviously time to revisit the assumption the state was part of a Solid Republican South (except, of course, for Florida and also North Carolina, where Obama’s victory was even more of a shock).
So there were many sighs of Republican relief when Bob McDonnell handily won the governorship back for the GOP easily in 2009, and then Republicans picked off three U.S. House seats in 2010. Things, it seemed were returning to normal.
Or maybe not. The RealClearPolitics average of recent general election polls in Virginia shows Obama with a 2.4% lead in the state; the most recent survey, by PPP, has Obama up by eight points. The Senate race between former Gov. and DNC chairman Tim Kaine and former Sen. George Allen is, and has been, dead even. And looking ahead, an early PPP poll of the 2013 governor’s race in Virginia shows Democratic Sen. Mark Warner stomping everyone in sight if he chooses to return to Richmond.
If Mark Warner wants to be the next Governor of Virginia…he’s probably going to be the next Governor of Virginia. PPP’s newest poll finds him blowing away the Republican field of candidates with a 53-33 lead over Ken Cuccinelli, a 53-32 advantage over Bill Bolling, and a 58-19 edge over Tareq Salahi.
Warner continues to be the state’s most popular politician with a 52% approval rating to only 26% of voters who disapprove of him. He takes 13-29% of the Republican vote in these three match ups while losing only 2-4% of the Democratic vote, and he has a persistent double digit lead with independents as well. At this point the office looks to be Warner’s for the taking.
Even more worrisome for the GOP...
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Battleground Virginia: Trouble for Mitt - WashingtonMonthly (Original post)
Response to WillyT (Original post)
Fri May 4, 2012, 07:45 PM
WillyT (52,766 posts)
1. And... 'Obama Leads by Seven in Virginia' - FDL
Obama Leads by Seven in Virginia
By: Jon Walker - FDL
Friday May 4, 2012 10:55 am
President Obama holds a solid seven point lead over Mitt Romney in Virginia, according to a new Washington Post poll.
Washington Post 4/28 – 5/2 (among registered voters): http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/05/03/National-Politics/Polling/release_69.xml?uuid=edr5sJVlEeGQmYYrIBRwlQ
Barack Obama 51%
Mitt Romney 44%
Other, no opinion 5%
The poll also found that a majority of Virginians approve of how he is handling his job as president. Obama’s job approval rating is 53% approve to 44% disapprove. The state of Virginia is quickly shaping up to be one of the best swing states for the Obama campaign and a likely bulwark against potential loses in more traditional swing states like Florida and Ohio.
The one big advantage for Obama in Virginia is that its economy has done relatively well. The unemployment rate in the state is only 5.6%, partly because the federal government-based employment in the DC suburbs has been less affected by the downturn. While signs of a weakening economy will likely cause problems for the Obama campaign everywhere, the damage is probably going to be less serious in Virginia.