The Emerging Republican Advantage

[4dog]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-emerging-republican-advantage-20150130

The article discusses longer-term voting trends. It is supported by polling data and enlivened by real examples. It suggests that Democratic optimism about an emerging majority may be short sighted. And that selection of a progressive, liberal presidential candidate may not be a winning strategy.

What do you think of this analysis? And the implications for a Democratic candidate? Who would you pick? (if you read the whole article)

Some excerpts:

Obama and the Democrats appeared to have captured the youngest generation of voters, whereas Republicans were relying disproportionately on an aging coalition. The electorate's growing ethnic diversity also seemed likely to help the Democrats going forward. . . . These advantages remain partially in place for Democrats today, but they are being severely undermined by two trends that have emerged in the past few elections—one surprising, the other less so. The less surprising trend is that Democrats have continued to hemorrhage support among white working-class voters—a group that generally works in blue-collar and lower-income service jobs and that is roughly identifiable in exit polls as those whites who have not graduated from a four-year college. These voters, and particularly those well above the poverty line, began to shift toward the GOP decades ago, but in recent years that shift has become progressively more pronounced.

The more surprising trend is that Republicans are gaining dramatically among a group that had tilted toward Democrats in 2006 and 2008: Call them middle-class Americans. These are voters who generally work in what economist Stephen Rose has called "the office economy." In exit polling, they can roughly be identified as those who have college—but not postgraduate—degrees and those whose household incomes are between $50,000 and $100,000. (Obviously, the overlap here is imperfect, but there is a broad congruence between these polling categories.)

. . .

Jerry, Connie, and James are, I would argue, very typical of the middle-class voters who are moving toward the Republicans. They are not driven by any racial animus. They are socially liberal, and would probably not vote for a Republican who was openly allied with the Religious Right, but they were willing to support an antiabortion Republican who didn't make a fuss about the issue. They are not unbendingly opposed to government, like some libertarians or tea-party activists; but they are worried about overspending and taxes.

. . .

It now appears that, in some form, the Republican era which began in 1980 is still with us. Reagan Republicanism—rooted in the long-standing American distrust of government, but perhaps with its roughest theocratic and insurrectionary edges sanded off for a national audience—is still the default position of many of those Americans who regularly go to the polls.

[Populist_Prole]

1. What about the dynamic of the democratic party moving rightward?

The political center ( such as it is ) has certainly shifted right. With the democratic party moving right, there's less and less opportunity to use economics as a wedge to separate the base, and so the elections are affected more by social issues than they should be.

[upaloopa]

2. I work for a county government. In my department

you have to have a MBA to get a job. Even if you are "extra help." It isn't a real necessity to do the work but my observation is that the managers are young MBA's and want the same kind of people around them. Even though we have a union and are government many of these folks are conservative. Again just my opinion but I feel they see themselves as "better" than the ordinary worker. They drive expensive foreign cars or the top of the line American autos. They marry within their "class" and have two high paid incomes over $100,000 and they are just starting out as a family.
They are not affected by many of the issues we discuss here.
These types use to be Dems but not now.

I saw something similar in Costs Rica some years ago. The society was definately stratified. There were the wealthy that lived in gated communities with security guard houses. Then there were the educated working class that spoke English and worked for foreign companies. And then the average working class and then the poor. I see us becoming like that.
I don't see a resergance of "New Deal" type popularism.

[4dog]

3. Thanks for your observations (and Prole's)

"Moving up" is associated with going Republican. Reminds me how my hairdresser once told me that an old friend/acquaintance would no longer associate with her (and was rather plainspoken about it) after joining the Republican Party.

[geek tragedy]

4. Americans want the government to do more when Republicans are in the White House

and want the government to do less when Democrats are in the White House.

The two things Americans hate are:

1) When the government doesn't do anything;
2) when the government does something

People can make fun of the Third Way crowd--lord knows they deserve it--but swing voters are not latent socialists.

What we're seeing is primarily a reaction to a big-government Democrat being in the White House.

2016 is about which structural advantage is more meaningful--Democrats and demographic shifts, or Republicans because the public wants a change in party in the White House.

There's no guarantee of losing future elections like winning the next one.

[BillZBubb]

5. The republican's emerging advantage is one thing:

Unlimited money. Citizen's United and other court decisions have made it possible for the republicans to amass huge war chests and build an unrivaled propaganda network. The Democrats, in order to stay competitive, have to find ways to appeal to the big money interests. That forces them more and more to morph into a business friendly republican-lite party.

[winter is coming]

6. The Republicans seem unaware that they're supposedly "gaining" among the middle class

since they're doing their best to destroy it.

[ieoeja]

7. Propery taxes are a huge burden on the middle class.

Every time we cut the income tax, we increase property tax. Not a problem for the poor. They don't have any property. Not a problem for the wealthy. They can afford it.

But for the middle class it is a huge part of their budget. I paid off my mortgage which was great. But it did not cut my housing cost in half because taxes and insurance (mostly taxes) were larger than my mortgage.

Republicans lower income taxes forcing a property tax increase. Middle class sees taxes increasing, so vote for the anti-tax candidate which just happens to be Republican. Then the Republican lowers income taxes resulting in a property tax increase. Middle class sees taxes increasing, so vote for the anti-tax candidate which just happens to be Republican. Then the Republican lowers income taxes....

When I say, "we have to stop lowering the income tax," people get confused expressions on their faces, eyes glaze over, and nobody hears the remainder of my sentence. "Stop 'lowering' taxes" doesn't make any sense when all they see is the property tax increase.



I'm so sick of people. Emanuel has an ad featuring a retired police officer complaining about Chuy raising taxes -- one time 29 years ago! -- then saying "we need more police." Complain about taxes, then ask the government to give us more services in the same fucking sentence. And this from a guy who spent his entire life being paid out of our taxes.

And you know half the people seeing that commercial thinks it is just fucking 100% correct.