Why I'm pessimistic about US politics 2016-2020.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

Let's run through the branches of government one by one:


Congress:
This, I'm told, is essentially a write-off until 2020 at the earliest due to gerrymandering - the best the Democrats can hope for is to win the popular vote and point out that the GOP don't have a mandate. Even then, it will only come back into play if there is significant Democratic influence in the redistricting.


Senate:
This is where things look least dire -the GOP have 24 senators up for reelection in 2016, and another 30 who aren't, while the Democrats have 10 up, and effectively 36 safe. Given the advantages of encumbancy, the odds may still favour the GOP slightly, but Democrats tend to do better in presidential years, and for what little it's worth (very little) polling seems currently to tilt some of those seats slightly there way so it's still very much in play. In 2018, things tilt the other way - there are 23 Democrats and 8 Republicans up for election, and it will be an off year, so the odds on the GOP regaining control are higher, unfortunately. But, of course, a lot can change between now and then.


Presidency:
With the single exception of Reagan's defeat of Carter in 1980, Presidential elections postwar in the USA have followed a very predictable pattern: one party has held the presidency for eight years, and then the other party has. The American electorate tends to operate on the assumption that the president Runs The Country (TM); they give one party two terms to Clean Up The Mess the other party created, and then they decide that it's their fault that we're in a mess, and bring in the other party to clean it up. Obviously, such patterns may hold - I've seen it argued that demographic trends are swinging in the Democrat's favour, although that spectacularly failed to materialise in the last senate election. But, even so, eight-year incumbency is a big handicap to overcome, and the GOP will, again, definitely go into the next presidential race as favourites.


SCOTUS

Here's a list of Supreme court judges by age and political leanings:

Ruth Bader Ginsburg (age 82) - Liberal
Antonin Scalia (age 79) - Conservative
Anthony Kennedy (age 78) - Swing vote
Stephen Breyer (age 76) - Liberal
Clarence Thomas (age 66) - Conservative
Samuel Alito (age 64) - Conservative
John Roberts (age 60) - Conservative
Sonia Sotomayor (age 60) - Liberal
Elena Kagan (age 54) - Liberal

The next president is very likely to get to replace Bader Ginsburg, and may well get to replace Kennedy or Breyer too (plus possibly Scalia, but he's already on the debit side of the ledger). If any of those is replaced by a Conservative, the court will have a consistent hard-right majority, at which point Roe vs Wade will probably be overturned.

Putting those four pictures together doesn't quite mean that the sky is falling, but it really doesn't look good - the odds on the GOP controlling all three branches of government between 2018 and 2020 are depressingly high.

[Bluenorthwest]

1. That White House pattern has some flaws to it....

Ford, Carter and HW Bush were all elected to single terms and that string of administrations also includes the Kennedy assassination and Johnson Presidency, and the Nixon resignation and Ford administration which are two big glitches in a series of 12. Two of the twelve ended in an unusual manner, and after Carter's one term, Republicans had three, two for St Ronnie of the Trickle and one for George HW Bush, who was then defeated after a single term.
Hard to call that 'two terms for one, then two terms for the other' without lots of asterisks and detailed footnotes.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

2. I think all the footnotes are only relevant if you look at individuals.

If you restrict yourself to looking at parties, it's only 1980 that needs to be mentioned.

[cali]

3. Just a note; Where you wrote Congress, I think you meant "House"

Congress is the House and Senate combined.


Aside from that, I tend to agree.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

4. Technically yes, but my impression is that it's a standard usage. N.T.