538: Obamacare’s Chances Of Survival Are Looking Better And Better

[brooklynite]

FiveThirtyEight:

Solicitor General Donald Verrilli won Wednesday’s oral arguments in King v. Burwell, the latest challenge to the Affordable Care Act. Or at least that’s what the wisdom of the crowd is telling us.

When we previewed the case, the predictors at FantasySCOTUS saw it as a 5-4 reversal, with Chief Justice John Roberts essentially sitting on the fence. (A reversal could result in the loss of billions of dollars in federal subsidies that are helping millions of Americans in more than 30 states purchase health insurance.) Now, they see it as a 6-3 affirm — in support of the government. (Note, though, that Roberts and Justice Anthony Kennedy are still seen as on or near the fence.)

Here are the shifts in the predictions over the course of the past few days. The plot represents a rolling average of the last 200 predictions entered by FantasySCOTUS players. The proportion of predicted votes to strike a blow to the ACA fell sharply Wednesday.

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[sharp_stick]

1. From Nate's Lips To Gods Ears n/t

[msongs]

2. that's all very well but what are the poll results of game of thrones users? nt

[spinbaby]

3. I hope so

We're depending on it to take us through to Medicare.

[Nye Bevan]

4. John Roberts would look like an absolute, utter fool if he chose to wreck the ACA now,

having bent over backwards to figure out a way to uphold it in 2012.

Also, Kennedy seemed to be strongly leaning towards not allowing subsidies to be withheld from states using federal exchanges even if one assumes that the wording in the act was intended (because this would mean that the federal government was coercing the states too strongly).

I will be utterly, jaw-droppingly gobsmacked if the justices rule in June to halt the subsidies in federal exchange states.

[bigdarryl]

5. This is so stupid because you can't predict what this crazy court is going to do

And who the fuck is 538 to be making predictions on the Supreme Court

[DisgustipatedinCA]

6. I don't think the USSC can afford to gut ACA

and I think all 9 justices are aware of that.

[Doctor_J]

7. Sorry. Did anyone really think it was going to be taken away?

C'mon people. It was never in any danger. It is so discouraging to see DUers seemingly fall for this charade. They will never let us have another crack at healthcare. For-profit insurance mandates are here to stay.