Four charts: GDP, employment, industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments.

Recovery Measures

by CalculatedRisk

By request, here is an update to four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments.

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This graph is for real GDP through Q1 2012. Real GDP returned to the pre-recession peak in Q3 2011, and has been at new post recession highs for three consecutive quarters.

At the worst point, real GDP was off 5.1% from the 2007 peak.

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This measure was off 10.7% at the trough.

Real personal income less transfer payments is still 4.2% below the previous peak.

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Industrial production was off over 17% at the trough, and has been one of the stronger performing sectors during the recovery.

However industrial production is still 4.1% below the pre-recession peak.

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Payroll employment is still 3.8% below the pre-recession peak.

All of these indicators collapsed in 2008 and early 2009, and only real GDP is back to the pre-recession peak. It is possible that industrial production will be back to the pre-recession peak in early 2013, but employment and personal income less transfer payments have a long way to go.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/recovery-measures.html