Hem and Haw all you want

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Our country is going to elect the first female president of the United States of America. Hillary.

Period. Paragraph.

It's destiny.

And the Republicans can put up anyone in their clown car they want. They are all assholes and they might as well throw their money down the big drain.

Conversely, we have many who could rise to the occasion!

Next time.

[Scuba]

1. This would be very sad for all of us who love America and Americans.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. I hear you...but the fact is that you have

someone who has huge popularity, huge name recognition, deep experience, and has viability as the first
female candidate ever (by viable, I mean would have an excellent chance to win based on polls).

It is just not possible to ignore these realities is it? Doesn't everyone enter the election process
with some degree of notoriety? Some more than less.

How would you change that to make the process more democratic? The press may be just reacting to the obvious - she's ticks all the boxes for success.

[jeff47]

2. Let me regale you with a story

There once was a Democratic candidate who was stomping all of his potential Republican opponents two years out from the next election. He was the obvious heir to the presidency, and reasonably popular. Unfortunately, instead of running as himself, he only ran with focus-group tested slogans and was most concerned with seeming bipartisan.

As a result, that stomping two years out didn't hold up. In the end, Al Gore made the race close enough for the Republicans to steal Florida.

Meanwhile....

Clinton's stomping all of her potential Republican opponents two years out from the next election. She's the obvious heir to the presidency. However, she's not really that popular - her popularity tanked during her book tour, a bad sign for her campaign. And instead of running as herself, she's running with focus-group tested slogans and most concerned with seeming bipartisan.

Golly, I wonder if we have to worry about the same result. When the Republican candidate will be the former governor of Florida.

If "New Hampshire 2008" Clinton was running, I wouldn't be concerned. Unfortunately, we're getting "everywhere else 2008" Clinton. Which will not attract the "marginally attached" voters that Obama brought out. Leaving us with a base versus base election. Their base is thrilled to show a woman her place, hate on Clinton, and think W was a fantastic ass-kicker.

If you think Clinton can't pull a Coakley on this, you will find election night 2016 very surprising.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Nothing is inevitable

But it is more likely than not Hillary Clinton will be the next president

[jeff47]

6. If she doesn't change strategy

then it is far from a foregone conclusion.

There'll be a huge number of posts pointing out where the media was unfair to her. There'll be a huge number of posts pointing out that the Republican base are morons. There'll be a huge number of posts saying "the kids were too busy with their iPhones to vote, that's why we lost" instead of thinking about why they gave "the kids" no reason to vote.

I don't see any signs she thinks her current strategy is a bad idea. Which means it's very unlikely to change. And what should have been a blow-out will be close. We'll see if it's going to be close enough to steal, but I'd prefer a blow-out instead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. It's not dispositive but the oddsmakers make her a prohibitive favorite

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president


http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=791149


And actually Gore wasn't in as commanding position as you suggest. In the 1998 exit polls he was running ten points behind Bush*. That being said if it was a 2016 electorate that was more black, more brown, and less white he wins handily.

Romney won the greatest share of the white vote since Reagan's historic 1984 landslide and still had his ass handed to him. I will continue to believe demography is destiny in high turnout presidential elections until that belief is disproven.

P.S. We have no idea what kind of campaign she will run. I am kind of curious.

[jeff47]

8. Golly, if only there was a similar example from about 16 years ago.

In the 1998 exit polls he was running ten points behind Bush*.

Link?

Very few polls included W in 1998.

I will continue to believe demography is destiny in high turnout presidential elections until that belief is disproven.

Only works if you get those demographics to show up. 2010 and 2014 should dissuade you of the belief that you are entitled to them showing up, and can ignore what they actually want.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. It is from my photogenic memory.

Oh, and here is a link rebutting the suggestion that Gore was the presumptive favorite who lost his way:

Personal image problems and fallout from Clinton administration scandals are contributing to Al Gore’s declining favorability ratings and his poor showing in early horse race polls. As the vice president has inched closer to the Democratic presidential nomination, his favorability ratings have fallen and he has slipped further behind GOP frontrunner George W. Bush in the horse race polls.

http://www.people-press.org/1999/04/17/other-important-findings-and-analyses-31/

2010 and 2014 were mid term elections. The turnout for mid term elections have always been substantially lower than the turnout for general elections:

[jeff47]

15. Except 2010 and 2014 were especially low in the demographics you speak of.

You're counting on people who showed up even less when presented with DLC-style candidates. And then talking about how a DLC-style candidate can count on them showing up.

Also, the poll you cite as W being 10 points ahead was actually Elizabeth Dole 10 points ahead.

It's also hilarious that you're citing Clinton's current polling and backing it up with an article that says

A review of polls conducted in the first quarter of the year preceding the election, found many of them forecasting the wrong winner — often by substantial margins.

They go on to show Gallup was right twice since 1959. And since Gallup says Clinton is leading, we can assume Clinton will win. There's no reason whatsoever to be concerned.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I cited a trend that goes back at least sixty years and likely further if such data exists.

If you believe there is no difference in turnout between mid terms and general elections there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.


I stand by my recollection that one of the questions asked in the 1998 mid term exit polls was who would you vote for in a Bush-Gore matchup and that Bush led by ten points. Since you are questioning my veracity the burden is on you to impeach my claim.

I never based my observation that HRC will be elected president in 2016 on this or that poll. I based it on history, the potential field, the political landscape, demographics, current odds, and polling data.

[99Forever]

3. Wudeva.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026133742

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Another one in a litany of Clinton sex scandals that will end up nowhere.

But hope springs eternal in the hearts of the young.

[NightWatcher]

9. What makes it "destiny"?

That eventually a woman would hold the office?
That Hillary is the most qualified?
That somehow it is just her turn?

I'm not making any judgements about her, but the idea that she is owed the office because of some reason aside from being the best candidate, is just silly.

I'd rather elect the best candidate for a job who, look at that, just happens to be a female.

[Tuesday Afternoon]

11. Holy Shit. Talk about rolling over and dying. Has the woman even announced that she is seeking

the nomination?

Fuck me running.

I want to throw up.

[Marr]

12. Yeah, I'm rooting for Warren, too. /nt

[magical thyme]

13. hem and haw?

more like puke until I dry heave.

Otoh, it seems to me Hillary was inevitable back in '08 as well.

[Avalux]

14. It's destiny? I'm so relieved that I don't have a choice! n/t

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. The two are not mutually exclusive are they?