General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHouse vs Senate: Do I have this about right?
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(60,332 posts)Yes, it's class warfare.
SixthSense
(829 posts)look at the party split of who is up for re-election in the Senate next year. The GOP is virtually guaranteed to control the chamber in the next session.
AlinPA
(15,071 posts)that will show the House republicans as a group in disfavor will not mean a thing in the elections.
TheWraith
(24,331 posts)There is absolutely no such guarantee.
SixthSense
(829 posts)Democrats have 23 Senate seats in play for 2012.
Republicans have 10 Senate seats in play for 2012.
We have to win better than 2-1 just to stay even.
More likely those seats will split closer to 50/50 and we'll lose 6-7 Senate seats.
As we are presently up 53-47 (or 52-48, depending on which side you perceive Lieberman to be on), the most likely outcome is for the Republicans to walk into the next session with 53 or 54 seats.
If you have information that would lead to a different conclusion I'd love to see it.
TheWraith
(24,331 posts)But it's not random. For starters, incumbents usually win reelection. There are 16 Democratic incumbents running for reelection, 12 of which in solidly blue states. There are another 3 retiring Senators in solidly blue states that shouldn't be difficult at all to win. That brings us up to 15 seats held out of 21 we need.
Now, there's 8 Republicans up for reelection, of which 5 will likely win without problem. One, Scott Brown, will likely lose, Snowe is a question mark, and Heller is potentially competitive. That means we've got 16 of 21, and two maybes. One open Republican seat that will likely go Republican again, in Texas.
We've got four Dems running for reelection in competitive states: FL, MO, MT, and WV. All of said Dems are fairly strong campaigners, and have no particular reasons for their constituents to vote them out.
That leaves us with contested open seats in AZ (formerly Republican), VA, ND, and NM (formerly Democratic). Chances are good that if we hold any given one of those three open Dem seats, we hold the Senate.
Add to that the sinking popularity of the Republicans, the rising popularity of the POTUS, and the high likelihood that next year is not going to go well for them at the top of the ticket, which always affects downticket races.
SixthSense
(829 posts)(reordered slightly so it is more pertinent to our discussion)
My analysis is a little different. I do not think incumbents are as well-situated today as they had been in the pre-economic-crisis era (pre-2007). I believe the electorate is more aware and pissed off than at any time in modern history.
4.3 Democrats/Independents seeking re-election (15 seats)
4.3.1 Tom Carper of Delaware
4.3.2 Bill Nelson of Florida
4.3.3 Ben Cardin of Maryland
4.3.4 Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
4.3.5 Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
4.3.6 Claire McCaskill of Missouri
4.3.7 Jon Tester of Montana
4.3.8 Bob Menendez of New Jersey
4.3.9 Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
4.3.10 Sherrod Brown of Ohio
4.3.11 Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
4.3.12 Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
4.3.13 Bernie Sanders of Vermont (Independent)
4.3.14 Maria Cantwell of Washington
4.3.15 Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Of these I think we keep for sure: DE, MD, VT, WA
Will probably keep: MN, NY
Could go either way: FL, MO, OH, PA, WV, NJ
Will probably lose: MI, MT
Where you count 12 solidly blue states out of this mix beats me. I see six solid blue states, a couple of red, and a whole lot of purple. If you thought Michigan was still a blue state, I have bad news for you.
4.5 Republicans seeking re-election (8 seats)
4.5.1 Richard Lugar of Indiana
4.5.2 Olympia Snowe of Maine
4.5.3 Scott Brown of Massachusetts
4.5.4 Roger Wicker of Mississippi
4.5.5 Dean Heller of Nevada
4.5.6 Bob Corker of Tennessee
4.5.7 Orrin Hatch of Utah
4.5.8 John Barrasso of Wyoming
Of these I think we capture for sure: MA
Probably capture: none
Could go either way: ME, NV
Have an outside shot at: IN
Will probably lose: MS, TN, UT, WY
4.1 Democrats/Independents retiring (6 seats)
4.1.1 Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Independent)
4.1.2 Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
4.1.3 Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
4.1.4 Kent Conrad of North Dakota
4.1.5 Jim Webb of Virginia
4.1.6 Herb Kohl of Wisconsin
Of these I think we keep for sure: HI
Will probably keep: NM, WI
Could go either way: CT
Have an outside shot at keeping: VA
Will probably lose: ND
4.4 Republicans retiring (2 seats)
4.4.1 Jon Kyl of Arizona
4.4.2 Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
Of these I think we capture for sure: none
Probably capture: none
Could go either way: none
Have an outside shot at: AZ
Will probably lose: TX
4.2 Democrats who have not announced intentions
4.2.1 Dianne Feinstein of California
4.2.2 Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Of these I think we keep for sure: none
Will probably keep: CA
Could go either way: none
Will probably lose: NE
adding up my numbers I see
6 seats that we are certain to win
5 more seats that are likely to keep or capture
9 seats that could go either way
3 seats we might win but are not likely to
9 seats we can write off as losses
So the best case scenario is to win one seat.
The worst case scenario is to lose 17(!) seats.
I view those scenarios as about equally likely to happen, based on the terrain.
The median result is going to be ~ 7 losses, unless I have wildly misconstrued our chances in a number of races here.
Johnny2X2X
(18,967 posts)What if this was a tax cut for the rich on the chopping block? Do you think Boehner and company would still be holding it hostage? Heck no, they rubber stamp this with no conditions fast than Boehner could apply some self tanner.