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Mon Apr 16, 2012, 02:48 PM

 

Gallup tracking publishes first Obama vs. Romney poll today



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Reply Gallup tracking publishes first Obama vs. Romney poll today (Original post)
Slamdrive Apr 2012 OP
LiberalLoner Apr 2012 #1
Joe the Revelator Apr 2012 #2
GusFring Apr 2012 #3
Proud Liberal Dem Apr 2012 #4
otohara Apr 2012 #9
Proud Liberal Dem Apr 2012 #12
coalition_unwilling Apr 2012 #44
otohara Apr 2012 #45
coalition_unwilling Apr 2012 #46
PotatoChip Apr 2012 #49
otohara Apr 2012 #57
nadinbrzezinski Apr 2012 #27
Proud Liberal Dem Apr 2012 #39
nadinbrzezinski Apr 2012 #47
MADem Apr 2012 #5
former9thward Apr 2012 #17
MADem Apr 2012 #51
former9thward Apr 2012 #53
MADem Apr 2012 #56
sadbear Apr 2012 #6
Moostache Apr 2012 #7
Marzupialis Apr 2012 #18
Blaukraut Apr 2012 #8
HughBeaumont Apr 2012 #10
boxman15 Apr 2012 #11
flamingdem Apr 2012 #13
FrenchieCat Apr 2012 #14
Proud Liberal Dem Apr 2012 #16
MineralMan Apr 2012 #15
gratuitous Apr 2012 #19
Junkdrawer Apr 2012 #26
amandabeech Apr 2012 #20
mac56 Apr 2012 #21
HughBeaumont Apr 2012 #23
Wait Wut Apr 2012 #22
Mosby Apr 2012 #24
Avon Barksdale Apr 2012 #25
CaliforniaPeggy Apr 2012 #40
Proud Liberal Dem Apr 2012 #43
warrior1 Apr 2012 #28
SpencerShay Apr 2012 #29
Marzupialis Apr 2012 #30
SpencerShay Apr 2012 #31
SpencerShay Apr 2012 #32
riderinthestorm Apr 2012 #33
SpencerShay Apr 2012 #37
Mr.Turnip Apr 2012 #34
AtomicKitten Apr 2012 #35
NYC Liberal Apr 2012 #38
Kingofalldems Apr 2012 #36
npk Apr 2012 #41
Mr.Turnip Apr 2012 #42
SidDithers Apr 2012 #48
Rosa Luxemburg Apr 2012 #50
book_worm Apr 2012 #52
Marzupialis Apr 2012 #58
warrior1 Apr 2012 #54
TNLib Apr 2012 #55
Karmadillo Apr 2012 #59

Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 02:53 PM

1. Yikes :(

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 02:53 PM

2. Well...that's not what you'd like to see.....

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 02:54 PM

3. wow. This is my least favorite time. Just a reminder that stupidity makes up the majority

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 02:55 PM

4. Damned indies

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #4)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:02 PM

9. Unaffiliated

they are in no way "independent", just wishy washy, swing back and forth, clueless, most uninformed voters.

I've talked to many, as I'm sure many of us have.

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Response to otohara (Reply #9)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:37 PM

12. Yeah

"Independents" is what they're called but what they really mean is that they are "independent" of facts and information. Thankfully, this is a national poll and there is still plenty of time to improve on these numbers. President Obama is AFAIK still doing well in state matchups, which is what will decide the election. I believe Politico (yes, Politico) had an article over the weekend that President Obama is projected to win the EC vote under current circumstances. That being said, we need to be prepared for a tough campaign, not because Romney is necessarily a good candidate but because there are a lot of ignorant "low-information" voters out there whom might easily come to believe that Romney would be "better" for the economy than Obama, the right-wing hates Obama with the fury of a thousand suns, the right-wing has implemented voter suppression and disenfranchisement tactics, and we're probably not going to be able to match the financial edge of right-wing Super PACs.

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Response to otohara (Reply #9)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:48 PM

44. "Independent" is what people call themselves who are smart enough to know how

 

skanky the 'right wing' brand has become after 30 years of Reagan-Bushism but who are still basically right wing.

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Response to coalition_unwilling (Reply #44)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 05:09 PM

45. If They're So Smart

why do they let the rest of us choose the candidates?

To me that's the height of stupidity - claim to be independent, but sit out the primaries.

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Response to otohara (Reply #45)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 05:17 PM

46. I said they were only smart enough to understand that the Repuke brand

 

is little better than John Birch Nazi-ism these days. But secretly they harbor the middle class and upper middle class petty resentments the right wing mobilizes and exploits.

Most people I've met who call themselves 'independents' are actually really stupid, constantly trotting out the latest rightwing talking points at the drop of a hat.

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Response to otohara (Reply #45)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 05:42 PM

49. A co-worker once proudly announced

(in a break-room full of people) that he was an independent so that he could "vote either way."

I kid you not.

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Response to PotatoChip (Reply #49)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 08:54 PM

57. Did YOu Burst Into Laughter

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #4)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:18 PM

27. As I pointed to a California Democratic Party official

Which is a huge secret...indies are not necessarily the center. I am one, and like many others I am way to the left (I know what it means too) than the dominant wing of the DNC.

Many indies are that on principles and are not in the mythical center.

Being a newsie being indie makes even more sense.

Anecdotally a few of my neighbors are either to the right of the RNC, yes, scary, or like me on the other side. Anectdotally I have yet to meet an indie who is a centrist

There is also another factor you shoud consider. We no longer answer pollsters.

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Response to nadinbrzezinski (Reply #27)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:45 PM

39. Still not very reassuring

that indies- wherever they fall on the spectrum- seem to be breaking for Mitt, at least at the moment but I imagine that, with enough time and exposure to the "hollow man", they may well reconsider. Maybe once they understand that Mitt is Norquist's ultimate "cart blanche" candidate whom will gladly sign whatever a Republican Congress sends to him, they'll think twice. The debates will probably help Obama against Mitt as well.

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #39)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 05:26 PM

47. Right now you only have political junkies

why polls this early matter really little... beyond entertaining.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 02:55 PM

5. Aaaaaaaand.....how many cell phones did they call?

Most of my younger friends do not have land lines.

If they didn't call cells, subtract Five GOP points, for starters...

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/11/22/republican-bias-landlineonly-polls-study-confirms/

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Response to MADem (Reply #5)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:55 PM

17. Gallup has been doing cell phones for years.

Go to their website if you want to know the history.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #17)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 06:51 PM

51. Really? I don't know a soul who has ever been polled on a cell--not one.

I know a lot of folks, too.

One has to wonder where they're getting their numbers.

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Response to MADem (Reply #51)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 07:34 PM

53. I only have a cell and I have been phoned twice.

Both times I have just hung up because I don't participate in polls. They likely get their numbers from the voter registration lists. Most of the time they ask for a phone number when you register to vote.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #53)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 07:50 PM

56. That must be a new thing. I never had to give a number to register, but that was

a loooooooong time ago.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:01 PM

6. But are they going to bring themselves to actually vote for Mitt?

It's all about the enthusiasm.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:01 PM

7. What were the numbers for Obama-McCain at the same time?

The initial polls are not what matters at all.
Get out the vote, make the margin beyond a recall and four more years!

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Response to Moostache (Reply #7)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:57 PM

18. Gallup initially had McCain on top

 

by 1%:

which suggests that polls don't matter this early in the year.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:02 PM

8. Judging by this poll, Romney appears to have benefitted from their primary fight

And comes out looking like the reasonable moderate republican indies can safely vote for. Once the general election battle is well underway, Romney won't seem so moderate anymore compared to President Obama.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:05 PM

10. He's dead, Jim.

As is the rhetoric.

Mitt the Twit ain't winning 2012, much as you want it to be so.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:35 PM

11. Fuck Gallup

They Always have the president down a few points more than almost all other polls. Most show him beating Romney relatively easily with around 50% approving of his job as president.

Gallup always has him down 2-3 points to R-Money and around a 45% approval rating.

Gallup is no better than Rassmussen anymore.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:38 PM

13. Well, it's true we cannot afford overconfidence

The repukes are evil, we know we need a landslide.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:46 PM

14. Whoo-hoo.....

The media will have a field day with this!

I'm sure they will say that Women are in Romney's corner,
because of Ann.

This shit must have had a script written for it,
and looks like the media and Gallup will play!

That's what we are up against.....
lying ass media
lying ass manipulated polls.

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Response to FrenchieCat (Reply #14)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:53 PM

16. I agree Frenchie

I rather suspect that we will get some other national polls during the course of the this week that show Obama leading Romney. Wait for them....... No use getting worked up over a single (national) poll. Politico (yes, Politico) published an analysis showing Obama leading the EV count by a wide margin right now and that's where it counts.

But yeah, I know, the corporate media...........

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:46 PM

15. Those are fighting numbers!

GOTV, everyone! Start today! Let's get every last Democrat to the polls in November. Every one.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 03:59 PM

19. Well, Gallup is vox dei around here

At least, whenever Gallup comes out with another one of its "liberal democrats approve of the Obama administration by 141%" polls.

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Response to gratuitous (Reply #19)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:16 PM

26. That's Saint Gallup to you, pal....

And don't forget it.

Saint Gallup now sez Obama needs to move to the Right, so what's the problem?

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:00 PM

20. A lot can happen in this country and in the world between now and then.

That's why I'm someone who takes the early polls with a grain of salt.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:01 PM

21. Gallup is the phonus bolonus.

But thank you ever so much for bringing this to our attention. I hope your DU stay is enlightening.

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Response to mac56 (Reply #21)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:11 PM

23. Was.

PPR'd.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:08 PM

22. Get back to me after the first debate.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:14 PM

24. cnn poll released just now has Obama up 9 points

Over romney.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:15 PM

25. That's funny...

...because CNN/ORC just did a poll having Obama up 9 points on Rmoney.

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Response to Avon Barksdale (Reply #25)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:45 PM

40. Welcome to DU, Avon Barksdale!

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Response to Avon Barksdale (Reply #25)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:48 PM

43. This is why

we need to avoid a massive freakout over a single poll, particularly from Gallup, which has never seemed to be very Obama-friendly. If a lot of polls start to say one thing the other way, THEN we should probably be getting worried.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:20 PM

28. why don't

the factor how much Romney is hated by his own party.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:21 PM

29. Calm Down! It's a DAILY tracking poll!

 

This is not surprising since the three-day rolling average has the president’s job approval ratings back in negative territory, after being at 49% approval last week. It’s a DAILY tracking poll! Sometimes President Obama will be up, and sometimes he will be down. It's going to go up, and down, like his job approval ratings. Plus, some pollsters have been under the assumption that 2012 turnout, is going to be the same as the turnout in 2010. In 2008, before $arah Palin, the Gallup poll even had John McCain ahead of Barack Obama, but we know who still won in the end. Of course, once President Obama re-takes the lead in the Gallup tracking poll, you won't hear about it in the media.

Plus this from the Gallup poll:

“History shows that the candidates' positioning in the spring of an election year is not necessarily good at forecasting the election outcomes. For example, in an April 20-22, 1992, Gallup poll, incumbent President George H.W. Bush was ahead with 41% of the vote, compared with 26% for Bill Clinton and 25% for Ross Perot. And in an April 11-14, 1980, poll, incumbent President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 42% to 34%, with John Anderson receiving 18% support. Both Bush and Carter, of course, ultimately lost their re-election bids.”

And, the Gallup poll may have a good reputation, but it’s not like the Gallup poll has never been wrong, or is above gaming their polls:

In 2010, the Gallup poll’s final midterm election poll gave the republicans a 15 point lead. The republicans won “big,” in 2010, but not that big. In reality, the republicans had like a 6 point lead in the polls. The Gallup poll was so screwed up in 2010, other pollsters started to take notice. That same year, Gallup also said blacks were going to turnout in huge “historic” numbers to vote for the G.O.P., which of course, never happened.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/144125/republicans-appear-poised-win-big-tuesday.aspx

Final Gallup 2010 midterm election poll:

Republicans: 55%

Democrats: 40%

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Response to SpencerShay (Reply #29)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:23 PM

30. Midterms have been historically harder to predict...

 

than Presidential elections.

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Response to Marzupialis (Reply #30)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:34 PM

31. But...

 

Most of the other polls in 2010 (Washington Post, PPP, CNN, NBC, CBS/New York Times) got it right. It was also the first time in decades the Gallup poll got it so completely wrong. Plus, Gallup's calculation that blacks blacks were going to vote for the G.O.P. in "historic" numbers in 2010 was wrong. Gallup messed up in 2010.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:36 PM

32. CNN

 

CNN released another poll today, with President Obama leading Mitt Romney by like several points. And, then there's this from the new CNN poll:



"Trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win in November?"

Obama 61% / Romney 35% (CNN/ORC Poll)

Mitt Romney is a loser.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:36 PM

33. Translation: Obama can't afford to be complacent and he has to stop pissing on progressives nt

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Response to riderinthestorm (Reply #33)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:40 PM

37. News Flash:

 

It's a DAILY tracking poll. President Obama could be in the lead, by the end of the week. The other polls, like the new CNN poll have President Obama in the LEAD.

Progressives need to stop PISSING on themselves: 2010 ring a bell?

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:38 PM

34. What the hell caused Romney to get a bounce in a bunch of polls recently?

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:38 PM

35. Farewell Slamdrive -- See you next reincarnation. nt

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Response to AtomicKitten (Reply #35)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:41 PM

38. "Repeat troll, banned multiple times"

Yep, it'll be back.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:39 PM

36. Looks like the OP was PPRed.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:46 PM

41. The first gallup usually give a slight edge to the challenger

When you factor in the bad economy, high energy prices and everything else, it not uncommon for independent voters to give their initial opinion to the challenger rather than the incumbent. Quite honestly I am surprised Romney doesn't have a larger edge in this first poll. I expect that Obama's numbers will climb once Obama can debate Romney one on one.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 04:47 PM

42. looking at the numbers that we have from Gallup (which are limited)

It looks like Gallup is using a turnout model similar to 2010, which is of course absurd for a Presidential year, if we went by the 2008 model with these same numbers Obama would be ahead by around 4 or 5.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 05:29 PM

48. Byeeeee....



Wonder if the MIRT and Admins feel like they're playing Whack-A-Mole sometimes.

Sid

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 05:48 PM

50. People like their services to be cut

they are like lemmings. The GOP cuts all their services, education etc. and they say yes please.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 06:54 PM

52. Why is Gallup the only pollster showing Obama behind Romney nationally?

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Response to book_worm (Reply #52)

Tue Apr 17, 2012, 08:50 AM

58. Well, Callup plus Republican pollsters

 

Fox and Rasmussen, which makes your statement still accurate.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 07:35 PM

54. always remember

that McCain beat Romney in 08, and Obama beat McCain.

Obama going to clean his clock in November.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Mon Apr 16, 2012, 07:39 PM

55. Odd most other polls have Obama ahead

Maybe it's an out lier. Or gallup just sucks.

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Response to Slamdrive (Original post)

Tue Apr 17, 2012, 09:52 PM

59. Obama shouldn't have let the liberals pull him so far to the left.

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