Dallas Ebola infection/incubation timeline 10.23.14

[morningfog]

Duncan's family and pre-isolation contacts have been cleared and are no longer on the timeline.

Days since Duncan's death (Oct. 8)......15 days -- 76 people provided care to Duncan before his death. As of today, two nurses, Nina Pham and Amber Vinson, have shown symptoms and infection has been confirmed. No new infections have been reported.

Days since Pham showed symptoms (Oct. 10).....13 days -- One person is being observed as having direct contact with Pham after she showed symptoms. She's being treated at NIH in Maryland and is in good condition. No new infections have been reported.

Days since Vinson showed symptoms (Oct. 14)......9 days -- Vinson flew on a commercial flight (with some 100 other passengers) from Cleveland to Dallas with a temperature of 99.4 degrees. She was quarantined and transferred to Emory. Her family reports she is now Ebola-free. No new infections have been reported.

______________________________________________________

Although the incubation period is up to 21 days, the incubation period of this strain is 7-10 days in most people who become infected.

Both Pham and Vinson were isolated when they had no symptoms other than a low-grade fever. Their viral load was low and it is unlikely they infected anyone prior to isolation.

The 74 other people in the same class/timeline as Pham and Vinson have passed through the most critical period, now at 15 days since exposure to Duncan. If more post-isolation workers had been infected, they would most likely have shown symptoms already. However, they do have another 6 days before the 21 day incubation watch period expires.

Pham's one pre-isolation contact is on their 13th day. They too are exiting the point were they would be most likely to show symptoms if infected. However, they do have 8 days before the 21 day incubation watch period expires.

Vinson's pre-isolation contacts are nearing the end of the most critical period at 9 days now.

Pham and Vinson are being treated in centers who know what they are doing. It is unlikely any workers there will be infected, even if their current conditions deteriorate.

[sharp_stick]

1. I've noticed a reduction in paranoia

since some people finally started to push back against the tide of idiocy that was spewing out of CNN and other outlets.

[morningfog]

2. That plus the lack of widespread Ebola infections.

[sharp_stick]

3. True

it's hard to maintain a panic about an outbreak when nobody is infected. I will give them credit for the effort though, they really put a lot of work into getting a mindless fear going.

[Cal Carpenter]

4. Just a quick thank you for compiling these posts

and keeping us up-to-date.

And for the patience needed to deal with folks who want to argue about the weirdest semantic shit or attribute all sort of things to you that you haven't said. You've done a great job.