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Fri Apr 13, 2012, 10:49 AM

October Surprise

Why Israel may feel pressure to attack Iran before the U.S. presidential election.

Excerpt from the end of the piece:

In fact, if the Israelis really are intent on attacking the Iranian nuclear facilities, they’re likely to do so before this November’s American presidential elections. If they started an attack and needed U.S. firepower to help them complete the task, Barack Obama might open himself up to perilous political attacks—for being indecisive, weak, appeasing, anti-Israel, you name it—if he didn’t follow through. It could cost him the votes of crucial constituencies. If the Israelis tried to pressure the United States into joining an attack after the election, Obama would have (to borrow a phrase from another context) more flexibility. So, to the extent the Israeli leaders have decided to attack (and it’s not at all clear they have), they are probably thinking: much better sooner than later.

One thought worth considering is that the Iranians have probably contemplated this scenario as well. They certainly do worry about an Israeli attack, and for good reason. The fact that they’ve buried some of their facilities so deeply underground, at great cost, attests to this. If they think the Israelis are serious, maybe they will come up with a deal to avert a strike, at least for the next several months. The question, then, is whether their offer—whatever it is—seems authentic and sufficiently tempting for the Israelis to accept.

Maybe the negotiations will be worth following, after all.


http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2012/04/nuclear_iran_why_israel_may_want_to_attack_before_the_presidential_election_.2.html

10 replies, 1316 views

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Arrow 10 replies Author Time Post
Reply October Surprise (Original post)
oberliner Apr 2012 OP
no_hypocrisy Apr 2012 #1
leftynyc Apr 2012 #2
bananas Apr 2012 #3
bongbong Apr 2012 #5
oberliner Apr 2012 #7
bongbong Apr 2012 #8
oberliner Apr 2012 #9
lastlib Apr 2012 #10
sadbear Apr 2012 #4
BlueIris Apr 2012 #6

Response to oberliner (Original post)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 11:05 AM

1. Two reason why I can see this:

1) Netanyahu doesn't like or trust Obama.
2) Netanyahu and Mitt Romney are old friends.

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Response to oberliner (Original post)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 11:06 AM

2. Another fucking article about the same fucking

thing I've been reading here for the last 3-1/2 years. Israel is going to attack!!! Hide under your desks!!! How pathetic. You'd think the people writing these would be embarassed by now.

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Response to oberliner (Original post)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 11:08 AM

3. The October Surprise of 1980

The Republicans were worried that Carter would cut a deal with Iran to release the hostages in October,
so the Republicans went and cut their own deal to keep the hostages until Reagan was in office.

So will the Republicans try to cut a deal with Iran now?

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Response to bananas (Reply #3)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 12:46 PM

5. The other 1980 surprise

 

John Anderson, a repig, running to steal votes from Carter. He stole millions of votes. After the election, he was literally never heard from again.

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Response to bongbong (Reply #5)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 01:15 PM

7. How did Anderson steal votes from Carter?

If he was a Republican, wouldn't he have stolen votes from Reagan?

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Response to oberliner (Reply #7)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 03:20 PM

8. It seems you weren't there

 

Even though he was a repig, Anderson ran as a super-liberal to the left of Carter. He got votes from the folks who were miffed at Carter for not being Liberal enough.

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Response to bongbong (Reply #8)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 05:04 PM

9. A Republican super-liberal?

Interesting assessment.

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Response to oberliner (Reply #9)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 05:10 PM

10. they actually had 'em in those days....

they're extinct now. Olympia Snowe was probably the closest living relative to one.....

Yes, Anderson did siphon votes away from Carter, but IIRC, not enough to have made a diff in the outcome. He took a few away from Reagan from the few repubs who thought Ronnie was just too nutso.

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Response to oberliner (Original post)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 11:10 AM

4. Bush Doctrine redux, Israeli-style.

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Response to oberliner (Original post)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 12:57 PM

6. My guess is that the surprise happens, er...a lot earlier.

A lot earlier than planned.

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