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Fri Apr 13, 2012, 05:42 AM

Charts: It's Starting To Look Like The Notorious 1972 Book On The End Of Growth Was Right

Last edited Fri Apr 13, 2012, 06:14 AM - Edit history (1)

http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-the-limits-to-growth-2012-4?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Money%20Game%20Select&utm_campaign=MoneyGame%20Select%202012-04-14

CHARTS: It's Starting To Look Like This Notorious Book On The End Of Growth Was Right

Ashley Lutz and Gus Lubin | Apr. 12, 2012, 5:28 PM | 4,769 | 7

On the 40-year anniversary of The Limits Of Growth, Smithsonian magazine finds that this apocalyptic tale of resource depletion may be coming true.

We did some digging on the subject and turned up a report by physicist Graham Turner, who came to the same conclusion in 2008.

On the following charts, the green line shows the book's baseline scenario, which sees resource depletion leading to a cataclysmic crash in 2030. The red line shows a scenario involving only technological solutions. The blue line shows a scenario involving technological and social solutions. As you can see from the purple line, we are within range of the book's baseline scenario.



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Reply Charts: It's Starting To Look Like The Notorious 1972 Book On The End Of Growth Was Right (Original post)
Hissyspit Apr 2012 OP
geckosfeet Apr 2012 #1
bananas Apr 2012 #3
bananas Apr 2012 #2
On the Road Apr 2012 #4

Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 06:35 AM

1. It looks like there are two sets of observed data -

one overlays the red line and overlays the green line. (Not the Boston T system red and green lines...)

Must be observed data for non-renewables and observed data for the aggregate (red).

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Response to geckosfeet (Reply #1)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 06:41 AM

3. The red and green lines are for different scenarios (different models)

what the two purple lines indicate isn't clear,
there should only be one purple line.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 06:38 AM

2. There's two purple lines following different tracks. nt

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Fri Apr 13, 2012, 10:20 AM

4. Actually, the Scenario in That Chart

depends on the trend accelerating beginning the past twenty years and continuing in the next twenty. So far the observed data shows no sign of that.

Nonrenewable resources are by definition declining, and no one knows how fast how fast other materials will be substituted. You can say the jury is still out, but it certainly doesn't confirm the 'standard run' in the chart.

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