Democrats Now Have A 51 Percent Chance Of Holding The Senate - WaPo

[WillyT]

Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
By Chris Cillizza - WaPo
September 16, 2014



<snip>

Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.

Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University's John Sides — warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling — as opposed to historical projections — played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans' defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)

So, what exactly has changed to move the Election Lab projection? Three big things:

<snip>

More: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/16/democrats-now-have-a-51-percent-chance-of-holding-the-senate/

[BillZBubb]

1. The trend is our friend!

Hope it continues going our way.

[WillyT]

2. Social Media Is Our Friend As Well... Just Like Domestic Abusers In The NFL...

The GOP "Domestic Abusers" need to be outed and denounced.

Let EVERYBODY know what's at stake.

[yeoman6987]

4. It is so embarrassing to hoot and hollar about losing seats

We are going to lose seats and everyone is applauding. We should want to gain seats. So weird how we have lowered our standards of what winning is now a days. Used to be we would hope tha Republicans lost seats. Strange times indeed.

[BillZBubb]

5. It is the reality of the times. We are going to lose seats.

Every Democrat wants us to win seats, but the public is in a right wing funk apparently and most of the seats up for election are in red states. Limiting the damage is a good thing. So, I'm not embarrassed at all about hooting and hollering about maintaining a majority in a midterm election.

[Fred Sanders]

3. I aughed when I read no one talked about the 80% likelihood seriously....except like everyone.

Now that Kansas is going Democrat, it upsets the whole propaganda cart.

Kansas the mass media does not want to talk out, the Ayn Rand dream exploding in massive failure and rejection by a deep red state....the model for all America, it was.

[BillZBubb]

6. The Kansas senate seat may go to an independent, but not a Democrat.

Still, that is progress.

[madville]

7. An independent who won't say

Who he will caucus with if he wins, says he voted for Romney in 2012 and Obama in 2008, straddling the fence publicly at least. I believe I read that he was previously a registered Democrat though.

[Fred Sanders]

8. I think the hatred they have for him tells me all I need to know about who he will caucus with.