The Next National Nightmare: A Republican Majority Congress in 2015

[madokie]

The Washington Post predicts the Republicans will win big this fall.

The right-leaning Washington Post’s 2014 election experts are now predicting that Republicans have an 86 percent chance of taking over the U.S. Senate. The New York Times puts it at 58 percent. Other top pollsters agree with the Times, saying the GOP’s odds of a Senate majority are strong but slimmer. Only Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball strongly disagrees, saying that many Democratic incumbents will not be beaten.

What would it look like if Republicans controlled Congress under President Obama? In the short term, there is no evidence that they would govern with restraint. The specter of veto wars from one end of Pennsylvania Avenue to the other looms large. In the long term, the makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court hangs in the balance. And today’s younger voters, who helped elect Obama, will keep seeing a government that can’t solve problems, which pollsters are saying has pushed some millennials to embrace Libertarian values.

The results could be even worse for the country than Rupert Murdoch's latest corporate takeover attempt, in which his Fox News media empire is seeking to buy Time Warner, Inc. If successful, that merger could mean that right-wing propaganda would creep into much of the media content fed to Americans. That’s discouraging enough. But a government held hostage by Republicans ideologues only benefits the GOP. Too many of today’s Republicans have run for office pledging to obstruct government and to cut public services.

Let’s start with the federal budget.

http://www.alternet.org/election-2014/next-national-nightmare-republican-majority-congress-2015

This scares the holy hell out of me. Short of stealing, cheating and outright lying I don't see how the republiCONs can pull this off so I may be scared for no reason. Better to be scared for no reason than to not be scared when I should be. dm

[DeSwiss]

1. !

"Every nation gets the government it deserves." ~Joseph de Maistre - 1811

[sendero]

8. Exactly..

..... and this is why I'm losing my concern about this. If folks want Republican rule, by god let them have it.

[BlueMTexpat]

10. The rule will also apply to YOU and those you love.

Is that what you really want?

If not, fight it with everything you've got!

Because once they get in, that's all she wrote. Today's GOP doed not believe that the laws of the land apply to them in any way.

[randys1]

26. WE will fight it, but maybe righty needs to get what he wants

when he is working for $2 an hour, 12 hours a day, 6 days a week and is hungry all the time

maybe then...maybe then

[JDPriestly]

2. Had Democrats not caved on regulating the banks, the entire country would be better off.

And the communications act that has such horrendous effects on our elections was signed by Clinton.

Democrats voted for electronic vote-counting.

The Republicans controlling Congress would be a disaster, but we have ourselves to blame if they get that control. I can't do anything. Here in California, in the area of California in which I live, I am represented at all levels by Democrats.

It's frustrating that Democrats don't get out and win in other areas of the country.

[Rod Beauvex]

30. I've pointed this out a couple of times.

There is very little the Republicans have accomplished without help from Democrats.


We've got to kick the Republicans out of our party.

[Cha]

3. The Washington Post is doing everything they can to make that prediction come true.

[Savannahmann]

4. I've been blowing this warning horn for a while

Nobody believes it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

Don't worry they tell me, the Dems are hugely popular, in the group of friends that they hang out with. Oh, and their families are hugely democratic too.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/2014_elections_house_map.html

Damn it don't you understand that the realclearpolitics is a RW site is another complaint that I get. Then they tell me about internal polling, which as near as I can tell is internal to their houses. In which 100% of the people polled are hugely Democratic.

I've been saying for months that the Senate is at risk. Those who admit it is possible, talk about how we will turn such a disaster into a victory. It's like saying that the Titanic sinking was a huge victory for those who manufacture lifeboats. Because after that, all the ships had to carry them. Perhaps those people think that the majority of folks in the country who would have voted for the Rethugs in that scenario just don't realize how crazy they are. I think they know, and don't care.

Or they tell you that GOTV is the key. Because more people voted in 2010 than in 2006, which somehow helped us or something.

Soon, you'll feel the love. The love of the party before principle folks, the love you never thought to embrace. People who accuse you of being a defeatist, or my favorite, of secretly hoping this happens. Because the guy shouting that the dam is about to break is just asking for that disaster to happen so he can go to the five survivors of the townsfolk and say, see I told you so.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025082703

The only posts that get much attention in a positive way, is posts where you announce we are going to win big. If we don't win big, then you have to start immediately posting the rewrite of history.

[asjr]

5. I used to read the WAPO. I stopped about 2 years

ago. Republican oratory kept popping up. I feel we will retain the Democrats we have and add one or two more. We all have to believe it.

[Scuba]

6. If only our side had some of those "policy" things to run on.

"Not the Republican" just ain't going to carry the day.

[NC_Nurse]

7. It is scary. Damn scary.

I hate to say it, but I don't feel like the Dems have helped themselves much. They are just "sucks light" compared to the Repubs. That's not enough to motivate most people to get to the polls....so the angry old white men will win again.

Maybe people will be mad enough by 2016 to elect someone worth getting behind, like Warren or Sanders. Otherwise it'll just be more of the same center/right to right-wing bullshit.

[BlueMTexpat]

9. Sorry - waiting until 2016 won't work at all.

Any Dem who sits out this election by not voting and who is not now actively doing something - volunteering, campaigning, contributing, writing LTEs - whatever that person can do - must acknowledge his/her responsibility in any GOP takeover. Sitting out this elections sounds like that is what you are planning to do. ??

If THIS GOP ever controls both Houses of Congress, IMO, it will be curtains for the US as a united country in any respect.

But if that's what you think you can live with ... just go ahead and keep lamenting how Dems haven't helped themselves much. You should be doing everything you can, even if that means voting for a "sucks light" candidate because your ideal candidate is not in the running - or indeed may never exist - because, believe me "sucks light" and "sucks beyond anything you can currently imagine" are VERY different.

And yes, as several here have noted, the WaPo has become primarily another RW rag, except for a couple of good OpEd writers.

[Freddie]

12. ^^^this^^^

A vote for 3rd party, or staying home, is the exact same thing as voting Republican. Sorry about your ponies.

[BlueMTexpat]

13. Not quite sure how

that was responsive to my post. ??

[NC_Nurse]

25. Oh, I always vote. But I'm not excited about getting anyone else

to vote anymore. I can't hide my disappointment and I'm out of enthusiasm.

[TheKentuckian]

29. The folks that think hollering "GOTV! GOTV!! GOTV!!!" love to ignore and poo poo

Is that "embrace the suck", "eat your peas", and partisan horror stories that the politicians will not collaborate in their campaigns, instead opting for "bipartisanship", "closer than you might think", and "meeting in the middle" creating a mismatch between any urgency to get to the polls and the message of the participants in what we are trying to sell as a matter of life and death is muddied, at best.

They also seem to not have a firm grasp that this isn't a national election but rather a mix of local and statewide races which means that no matter what the numbers are in strongholds and safe seats are that those margins are meaningless in overcoming gerrymandering halfway across the country where just flogging the base to get out isn't going to cut is and the message designed to supposedly attract independents isn't effective and even can be counterproductive, under the impression that the average voter is looking for the same thing as upperclassmen, east coast, limousine type liberals (aka solid conservatives who aren't big bigots, do not oppose abortion for those who can pay for it, and accept in theory that someone will have to pay some taxes)

There is this weird concept that the candidates, their policies, and what they do with power are virtually meaningless, we just need to show up and clap like Hell and all will be gravy for Tinkerbelle.

I think our strategy is pretty sucky, our message muddy and convoluted, and our politicians too compromised and mealy mouthed to sell as life and death different (even if it actually is).

Let's keep it real, after at least four years of unapologetically assaulting women, actively disenfranchised black folks for far longer, absolutely shitting on immigration, and a fucking nonsense shutdown we are having this conversation means we are not doing something right but the only answer seems to be to flog the voters harder, increase the mix of right wing policies (no matter how unpopular) and dump on the left in right wing fashion.

All I hear is that the brick quota will be raised but the straw ration will not increase from the DNC and the DNC Superfriends who I think are even more hard headed and goofy than the opposition who at least will admit they need to sell their bullshit differently (yes, far too stupid to admit it is their bullshit that is the problem) but we can't even go that far, our answer is do it harder.

[Kath1]

14. It really is scary!

I know the RW is absolutely giddy over this 2014 election.

"....so the angry old white men will win again." - And that means the rest of us lose!

[Katashi_itto]

11. Meh...we have been on that route ever since the President didn't put BushCo up on war crimes.

[ananda]

15. Oh please! This is from a rightwing rag!

Seriously...

[maced666]

16. Right?!

Don't be shocked when we increase in the Senate and take back Congress.

[Android3.14]

17. Only one way to avoid this

Find a candidate without baggage (Hint - it ain't Hillary)
Craft a real platform that includes
Living wage legislation
Public funding of free college
An Apollo style project to eliminate all dependence on foreign energy sources
Public works program to put anyone willing to work into a paying job that benefits the country
Taxing the wealthy
Protecting the people's privacy from the government AND corporations
Using the CIA to extract from foreign countries the internet scammers who prey on our elderly.

[Trust Buster]

18. I think the Dems will maintain a slim majority in the Senate.

But, between now and 2016, nothing of any significance will be achieved by Congress either way.

[OldRedneck]

19. 2016

What you say about the impact of a GOTP-controlled Congress for the period 2015 - 2017 is true -- veto wars that will sap our national energy.

HOWEVER -- let's look at the 2016 election where:

1. TWENTY-THREE (that's "23&quot GOP senators will face re-election. I read an analysis on Daily Kos that said only 6-7 of these are safe, 7-9 are probable Democratic pickups, and the rest are varying degrees of toss-up.

2. The Democratic presidential candidate in 2016 -- probably Hillary Clinton -- will have long, strong coattails.

3. The nation will have experienced another two years of The GOTP Crazy.

So -- 2014 and the ensuing period January 2015 - January 2017 may be very tough, but, Obama will hold the line against the craziest; the GOTP will cut their own throats; and we'll be in the driver's seat after 2016 and for a LONG time after that.

[Jim Lane]

24. Another scenario: yet more veto wars, and don't forget the confirmation wars

I'm not predicting this, but it's not implausible:

* Aided by the math of 2014, where many more Democratic Senators are up for re-election, Republicans take the Senate.
* Without a Democratic Senate to restrain them, the House Republicans pass even more crazy stuff, much of which gets approved in the Senate and then vetoed.
* Frustrated at the vetoes, Republicans attach RWNJ riders to must-pass bills. Expect another shutdown.
* With a Senate majority, Republicans basically stop confirming any Obama nominees, except a few judges approved by their home-state Republican Senators. They certainly won't confirm a Supreme Court nominee who's anywhere to the left of Scalia.
* In 2016, as you point out, the Senate math is reversed. Democrats regain control.
* BUT the Democrats, who haven't taken the electoral vote three times in a row since FDR/Truman, are perceived as ineffective because Obama couldn't get anything done. A Republican wins the Presidency.
* The Senate Democrats, remembering how Obama was treated, respond in kind. President Huckabee (or whoever) can scarcely get any of his nominees approved. The Democrats certainly won't approve any Supreme Court nominees for vacancies that arose during the Obama administration.

A lot of those people on the Supreme Court are old. In this scenario the Court might have only five or six judges by the 2020 election.

[newfie11]

20. If they take control of the senate

We will be in a war
In a heartbeat! God help the world!

[randys1]

27. Nah, Americans are too stupid to see what is happening to them, they will just

take it

do nothing about it

[kentuck]

21. As we can see today and as we have seen in the past...

Conservative Democrats do not inspire the Democratic Party to get to the polls.

[spanone]

22. so being fucking looney tunes gets you elected? i ain't buying the media's take.

[PowerToThePeople]

23. Time to start that political refugee paperwork

and gtfo of this shithole.

(if Repukes take over completely)

[JEFF9K]

28. Anyone who plans to vote Republican should be asked to make a list ...

... of things that Republicans have ever been right about.

[TheKentuckian]

31. You forget these folks believe in a delusional ideology that has a long track record of failure.

and that on a lot of shit they are most wrong about, we have also accepted into "the big tent" and offer no solution for or if there is a solution buried in their that it is so nuanced and diluted that many will gloss right over it.

They'll just tell you they are right on low taxes, free trade, foreign policy, immigration, abortion, gays, guns, and small government.

You will be stuck agreeing but with some nuance some of which will be on faith and essentially arguing with their distorted interpretation of their "religion".

[L0oniX]

32. Just it time for the complete Third Way take over of the Democratic Party.

[conservaphobe]

33. The same Washington Post that published this?