Car Dealers Are Terrified of Tesla’s Plan to Eliminate Oil Changes
BY MARCUS WOHLSEN
Car dealers fear Tesla. In states across the country, powerful car dealer associations have lobbied to ensure the electric car maker and its direct-sales model are kept out. This movement claimed another victory this week when New Jersey banned Tesla stores in the state.
On the surface, the fear is hard to fathom. In New Jersey, for instance, sales of Tesla’s $70,000 Model S reportedly number in the hundreds. But if you dig a little deeper, it becomes obvious why dealers are worried. They don’t just fear Tesla’s cars. They fear Tesla’s plan to create a world where you never have to bring your car into the shop again.
The first and most striking way Tesla kills the dealer service department cash cow is downloads. As part of its sales pitch, Tesla says you should think of its Model S sedan as “an app on four wheels.” That may sound like vacuous Silicon Valley marketing copy, but the company isn’t just being metaphorical. Software is at the heart of what keeps Teslas running. These internet-connected cars are designed to self-diagnose their problems. The vehicles can also download software fixes or updates — even new features — much like an iPhone when Apple puts out a new version of iOS. When fixes happen over the air, there’s no need for a shop in the first place.
The ability to repair a car via software is especially important when the vehicle itself consists of so much new technology that traditional mechanics don’t know how to fix. The flip side is that without an internal combustion engine, there’s not as much to fix. I’ve written before that a Tesla without its outer shell looks like a cell phone on wheels. It’s basically just a big battery. That means no spark plugs, no air filters, no fuel pumps, no timing belts. In short, Teslas don’t have any of the parts that force you to take your car in for “regularly scheduled maintenance” — services that can cost dearly at the dealer. But it’s hard to charge for an oil change when there’s no oil to be changed.
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http://www.wired.com/business/2014/03/car-dealers-fear-teslas-plan-end-oil-changes-forever/
= new reply since forum marked as read
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"Oooog Want Smash. Smash Machine."
If you "break even" on selling a new car a dealership is considered doing really good-
It's rare for a dealer to make money on the sale of a car.
Money is made on LOANS-
(that's why they hate if you buy a new car cash. Negotiate the price down, say you are paying cash and watch the salesdudes head explode 
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But because you think this is important, here are the details. I am not shorting. I purchased puts a couple of weeks ago as part of a straddle that is heavily biased on the downside. The dealership spat had nothing to do with that decision. The dealership thing is a non-event. Musk may just be using that to try to get more free publicity. Nothing wrong with that. It is smart.
I bought the puts after I became convinced that European S-series orders are practically non-existent other than a couple of countries that have huge government incentives for EVs. Germany has done a couple hundred cars total. Most other countries a lot less than that. They are cutting prices in Europe to try to get some orders. There is still hope for China, and we shall see about that. But it is evident that the US backlog has dropped from 12 weeks to about 4 weeks now, which suggests the S series has basically run its course. And there is a pretty long wait for another model that will appeal to a wider swath of the marketplace.
I expect the stock to be up and down, but mostly down over the next 6 months. My puts are for January 2015. At this point, I intend to hold those options at least through the next quarterly report. I expect the numbers from 50,000 feet to look about the same as other recent quarters. But when people dig deeper they will see a significant change in the momentum that should take the stock down below 200 before the end of the year. If that happens, even I could afford an S car.
