On the campaign front, are we looking at losing the Senate?

[hfojvt]

According to Dick Morris, via the Daily Howler, we are losing in Florida, in Missouri, and in Ohio, where we have Democratic incumbents. We are losing in Wisconsin, where a Democratic incumbent is "retiring". We are almost certain to lose in North Dakota and don't have good odds in Nebraska, were we currently have two Democratic Senators.

Shouldn't we be trying to do something to prevent this catastrophe?

[Dawson Leery]

1. First, do not trust Dick(less) Morris.

Second, we are leading in Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin is a tie. Missouri is the only state where we trail.

[Proud Public Servant]

7. "Wisconsin is a tie"?

Every poll I've seen (with one exception) has Thompson beating Baldwin, sometimes quite handily.

[sadbear]

2. When has Dick Morris ever been right about anything?

[Kalidurga]

3. Freepers like Dick Morris nuff said

Last edited Fri Mar 23, 2012, 08:28 PM - Edit history (1)

[leveymg]

4. I'd like another opinion.

[PoliticAverse]

5. "Reid says he feels confident about Democratic prospects of controlling the Senate"

From: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/reid-says-he-feels-confident-about-democratic-prospects-of-controlling-the-senate/2012/03/11/gIQApRJA5R_story.html

"Reid also said he was okay with the decision by President Barack Obama’s campaign team not to help finance Democratic congressional campaigns."

[DavidDvorkin]

11. Before the last election, Nancy Pelosi

expressed confidence that the Democrats would hold the House.

Currently, Intrade has the odds at 59% for the Republicans gaining control of the Senate. I think that's an improvement over the last couple of months, though.

[Proud Public Servant]

6. I wouldn't listen to Dick Morris -- sort of

We're quite likely to retain OH and Florida. But, as you point out, ND, and NE are probably gone, and WI doesn't look good. MO looks pretty bad too, as does MT. If we lost all 5, the only way to retain control would be to pick up MA (doable) and ME (hard to tell, given King's squirrelly pronouncements on caucusing). NV is the wild card, but it's hard to see us doing much better than a 50-50 split -- which would make our blue dogs and Susan Collins the most powerful people in the Senate.

[hfojvt]

9. thanks for the info

although it does not make me feel any better.

I think we ought to be focussing on this though, trying to do something to turn it around.

[Proud Public Servant]

12. No argument, but

most folks would agree that we're at a severe structural disadvantage. We hold 23 of the 33 seats in play, so we have much more defending to do; plus, we're faced with four retirements in red (ND, NE) or swing (WI, VA) states, versus one retirement in a blue state (ME) for the GOP. Much will depend on Obama's coattails.

The really bad news is that the situation doesn't improve much in 2014, when we'll have to defend 20 of the 33 seats in play, several of them in red or swing states (NH, VA, NC, AR, LA, SD, MT, AK). By contrast, the only seat in a blue or swing state that the GOP will have to defend is Collins' in ME.

[Dawson Leery]

13. Obama has a strong lead in Wisconsin

and is doing better than expected in Virginia.

North Dakota is gone. Nebraska is slightly against us.

[dogknob]

8. Why do you think the clown car dog and pony show has been going on for so long?

Get ready for either 4 more years of gridlock (GOP keeps House) or 4 years of impeachment hearings (GOP keeps House & takes Senate)

This subject was brought up months ago by myself and several others... and vigorously ignored.

[hfojvt]

10. that dog and pony show has taken far too much of OUR attention

the other issue is the House. What are our odds there? Right now in Kansas, the four Republicans look to be in cakewalk races. We do not even have candidates. They are also still playing with the districts too, going for some legendary Gerrymandering.

Hard to believe that with record low congressional approval that a bunch of Republican incumbents will be re-elected.