3. There is so much opposition to him in the South
And he can't quit sticking his foot in his mouth. He's the fakest candidate I've ever seen, and I don't foresee this getting better for him. He's got major opposition in his own ranks, and even if he buys the nomination, he can't win without the South.
He's going to get torpedoed in LA and TX. Not that any of the other ones would do better outside of the South, he just spectacularly bombs here. The others spectacularly bomb in urban areas.