The problem in Atlanta , Birmingham and other Southern cities.

[Are_grits_groceries]

The NWS gave a warning about the possibility of a 1-3 inches of snow. The teevee stations reporting the weather may or may not have real meteorologists on staff. If they do, they may pick their forecast from a different model. If not, a weather reader will report what is given to them. The NWS was quite clear.

The people who made the decisions about closings relied on one snapshot of the forecast before 6am. These storms are notoriously unpredictable. I was watching my own forecast and it changed constantly. The time the majority of the precipitation would hit, the type of precipitation, and the location of these factors were all in play. The basics stayed somewhat the same, but the details matter in judging for a certain area.

The probability of a shift from South of Atlanta to some other area was high. Any teevee stations that ignored that were stupid. The NWS was clear and the models changed all the time. The NWS reports are the ones relied on I assume. They can't give a forecast with 100% accuracy.

With Atlanta's traffic situation, the number of people that could be affected, and the number of vehicles that would be released on the roads if there were closings should have given all of them pause. The probability of a massive SNAFU were right before them.

For some reason, they bet on the best possible scenario and everybody lost big. All of the factors involved and the volatility of the situation made it a bad bet to say the least. Err on the side of caution. Don't use the best outcome possible and then cross your fingers.

The people who made the decision to open need to be held accountable. THEY are paid to make the call and hopefully with every factor and probability in mind. Safety first should be their aim. Trying to squeeze in enough time to count as another work day or school day is inexcusable. I know this is another factor whether they will say so or not. If they don't know by now that the weather is fickle even from moment to moment then they have stayed in caves.

Anybody considering the forecasts should consider the probability of change too. A decision made before 6am will be based on factors that could change dramatically in an hour or two. Fool me once...
In addition, when they do err on the side of caution and a major problem doesn't materialize, they catch holy hell for wasting time and money. That affects their decisions too. Think of that during any of these problems.

From the President of AWS:

Some in the public, social medial or decision-making positions would “blame” the meteorologists. I began to hear things like “this was not expected in Atlanta” or “they said this was going to all be South of Atlanta” or “there were no Watches or Warnings until snow started falling or “weather is just unpredictable”. Wrong, Wrong, Wrong, and Wrong!

I heard something very familiar within these statements with other recent high impact events.

The weather models produced a great track forecast for Hurricane Katrina days out (2005) yet meteorologists heard whispers that “we didn’t know where it was going.” In recent and deadly 2013 El Reno/Moore/Oklahoma City area tornado outbreaks, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center warned, days to multiple hours in advance, of the threat of tornadoes, yet I still saw media sources and people say, “those tornadoes came without warning." Some models predicted 6 to 9 days out that Superstorm Sandy was going to oddly visit the Jersey Shore, yet people still said "oh no big deal, not a Category 3 hurricane" or worse, didn't evacuate.

Herein, I discuss why our National Weather Service, Television, Academic and Private Sector Meteorologists should be praised not condemned for handling of the Atlanta snow event of 2014. I also conclude with some lessons learned, from my perspective.

1. Watches and Warnings were issued in advance of the snow event and with plenty of time for decisions to be made. Here is text directly from the National Weather Service website on MONDAY at 4:55 am:

CLAYTON-COBB-DEKALB-GWINNETT-HENRY-NORTH FULTON-ROCKDALE-
SOUTH FULTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...CONYERS...DECATUR...
EAST POINT...LAWRENCEVILLE...MARIETTA
455 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF THE ATLANTA METRO AS WELL AS AREAS ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 WEST OF ATLANTA AND INTERSTATE 85 EAST OF ATLANTA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES.

Early on Tuesday morning well before the crack of dawn (3:39 am to be exact), the National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Warning with expectations of 1-2 inches of snow. Even for the mountain counties of Georgia, Winter Weather Advisories were issued.
http://gonol.es/1iatmnU

[Glitterati]

1. Exactly, thank you. I live 40 miles NORTH of Atlanta

My county was not on ANY watch or warning

I'm looking out my window at 3 inches of snow and a frozen landscape.

[Are_grits_groceries]

3. Even that far out,

you should be careful. Even if a watch or warning is not issued for your area, a shift could put it in play. Hopefully it will be reported.
However, how frequently some update their forecasts apparently remains to be seen.

Case in point. When a hurricane watch or warning is issued, I look at other path models. They are relying on their best data at that time. They have to stop and choose some forecast.

I usually expand their area in my mind to include other probabilities even though they are less likely. I have seen too many storms make unpredictable shifts to completely trust one forecast. This is true of all storms IMO.

[RebelOne]

20. Same here. I live in Woodstock, just northwest of Atlanta,

and our county was only under a weather advisory not a warning, so no one was too worried. I am seeing the same scene out my window as you are.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Weather readers mostly get the forecast

From the NWS. The NWS gave warnings, locals did not heed then.

Egads, I read both NWS product and accueweather, and have a couple good weather apps. I usually, and no, I am not a metereologist, can tell when NWS will issue a red flag, for example. Been reading product for decades now. Mind you, for different reasons.

What, their OFfice of a Disaster Services did not have access to raw data? Nope, this is a government official, elected, for ideological reasons blaming government.

[Are_grits_groceries]

5. That's my point.

When they are betting on the best forecast and not using safety first as their guide, this is what you get.
And as I said, if a station has hired a qualified meteorologist, some of them want to rely on their own models.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. The NWS at times goofs

Like here recently, but the goofs are things like we missed the sprinkles before the end of the month.

Very rarely a high or a low appears from nowhere. But this time around, I went and looked back, the NWS had it mostly right.

It is rare the station that has an actual meteorologist. We actually have one. He is a climate change denier. None in their right mind wants to listen to his forecasts anymore. They are littered with propaganda.

[Are_grits_groceries]

21. I have lived in several places along the East coast

and have found that some unlikely places have meteorologists. It"s not surprising since weather is a prime reason for watching.
It just depends.

[nadinbrzezinski]

26. Here it matters when we have a winter storm

Californians do not know how to drive in rain, snow...I don't want to think about it. (Yes, I am supposed to report on it, I am staying home, and I own a vehicle with proper tires and chains)

The other time it matters is with fire weather, and that they have no idea what to do with the product. We have turned them into the warning from NWS with the do's and don'ts from Cal Fire.

It's the best we can do, I think, albeit repetitive.

Now if Jim Cantore drops into this town, I guess the hurricane is about to come in (fun fact, one did in '75, and we expect them with climate change as well).

Speaking off, did he drop into Atlanta? (Yes, he's become an ongoing gag)

[Glitterati]

6. Actually, we have serveral local weather persons

On the local CBS channel, there's Karen Minton who poo poos ANY possibly bad forecast. Calls it wrong every damned time and REFUSES to tell the viewers anything resembling the truth.

Then, on the same channel we have Glenn Burns, who simply freaks the hell out over everything. Really goes into panic mode at the drop of a hat.

It was Karen Minton on at 4 AM until nearly noon saying "nothing more than a dusting for Altanta."

Then Glen Burns came on for the noon broadcast and started screaming "Everybody run for the hills."

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. But both are getting their forecast

From the same damn place I do, NWS. News stations have that page like saved, and one channel on the scanner has the NWS on it. It is their interpretation that changes. (I don't have that channel I admit, but I should, but I have two emergency radios with it)

Hey here we have a climate change denier...which is kind of no longer fun, rather very irritating. I used to make fun at Coleman, these days he drives me batty. Scary thing, he is actually one of the very rare actual meteorologists working in any local media. But climate change is a lib'rul conspiracy.

[Glitterati]

12. What's your point?

They're both looking and the same thing and interpreting it differently.

Yeah......that's what I said............

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. My point is they are using NWS product

When the governor claims locals were more accurate, that is balderdash

[Glitterati]

19. Of course it is.

All that asshole has to look out his window to see that the damned locals screwed up.

[Are_grits_groceries]

23. I think we are all agreeing on the same point in different ways. nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. We are

[Are_grits_groceries]

13. I'd like to slap all of them.

Cheerleading for the best weather doesn't make it so.
Panicking every time doesn't help either. Give the forecast with possible changes in a calm manner. If you do issue a real warning, don't scare people into panicking too. There is a tone and level that conveys the danger and gives instructions that will help people as much as possible.

[Glitterati]

18. Oh me, too

Seriously, Atlanta can thank Glenn Burns for that massive traffic jam.

[NightWatcher]

4. individuals should take some responsibility. If you live around Atlanta you know what traffic's like

I hate that some people waited until the snow started coming down before they decided to go home...too late. I was laughing with my dad in Savannah that he needed to stock up on beer this weekend because the blizzard was coming. We all saw it coming.

Just as in Florida and the Gulf in hurricane season. If I can use my brain and computer to see that a big storm is coming, I'm not going to wait til the suit on tv tells me to go to home depot for supplies or to evacuate.

Sometimes you have to save yourself.

[Glitterati]

7. Posted this on Facebook on January 26

Heads up Georgia folks - snow and ice coming starting Tuesday night into most of the day Wednesday for those just north of a line on I20. <removed family references>, that means you! <removed family reference> in Savannah is likely to get hit as well - this will stretch from Texas through South Carolina.

For us in North Georgia, it looks like freezing rain without snow accumulation. And, no, you can't just put ice skates on your cars and keep going!!!!!!!!!!!

[Are_grits_groceries]

8. I tried to point that out too.

However, people who are beholden to bosses or other people usually aren't free to use only certain factors that really do matter in safety. They have to factor in their jobs and the possibility of pising someone of. In addition, they probably hope that their safety will be factored in.

I have worked too many places where we opened in gawdawful situations to earn ???? Some customers came too.

[NightWatcher]

11. I lived between Cornelia and Gainesville when we had an ice storm several years ago

I told my boss to pound sand and had my wife call out as well. We were iced in for 4 days and couldnt get out of our neighborhood due to branches and ice.

I didnt wait for someone to make the call. I made the call.

[Glitterati]

15. Some folks need their job to eat. Can't afford to get fired

and that's exactly what happens when you don't so up for work regardless of the reason.

[NightWatcher]

28. your boss isn't going to come save you when you've frozen on the side of the road

If they will not act responsibly, you need to.

[Glitterati]

31. Right. And lose your job.

Brilliant suggestion.

I told my daughter's boss this morning that she wasn't coming to work. But I put a roof over her head and food on the table, so if she gets fired she won't suffer.

Others are simply not so lucky.

[NightWatcher]

32. then take a sleeping bag to work. or spend 20 hours on the road freezing

[Glitterati]

34. Oh, so maybe you shouldn't be demeaning them for not calling out?

Thank you.

And, as you can see by news reports today, that happens to be exactly what most of Atlanta ended up doing.

[Are_grits_groceries]

16. And if telling a certain person to pound sand

can make your job worse, then that becomes a problem.

[NightWatcher]

30. tell them in the nicest possible way, of course

[Baclava]

9. People in Atlanta aren't used to heeding cold weather warnings - it's not like hurricane evacs

when 1 million commuters hit the roads all at once there's bound to be trouble when the roads are solid ice

next time - watch the weather yourself and stay home, or leave early, before it gets too bad - don't wait for someone to tell you to leave

[ecstatic]

24. Yeah. Late Tuesday night, my dad texted me about an

ice storm, which I didn't take seriously based on the weather report I had seen earlier that day.

[Baclava]

33. Live and learn

pay attention to your surroundings and take care of yourself...that's all I got

[ecstatic]

22. Learning experience

I relied on a weather report from the afternoon before. There was no indication of snow or a storm. That morning seemed to confirm what I had read the afternoon before as well.

This is a great reminder that weather conditions can change quickly and it's important to stay aware.

[Glitterati]

25. Until the next one

when it comes to snow, southerners have a very short memory.

Besides, you have to take into consideration that many of those people who went to work yesterday were threatened with their jobs if they didn't show up.

The simplicity is that if there isn't snow on the ground for morning rush hour, you are expected to be at work on threat of being fired if you aren't.

Walmart is a perfect example.......don't show up because it might snow, and even if it ends up like today, you're fired on the spot.

Northern metro counties didn't close schools because the 4AM NWS said we would get a "dusting" and school closings have to be posted at 6AM.

Today, there's hundreds of kids stranded in northern metro school because they couldn't get them home.

[Jamaal510]

29. This is somewhat unrelated,

but up until last year, I used to get amazed by the fact that even areas in the south like Atlanta, Birhimgham, and Dallas get more snow than out here in (coastal) NorCal, despite us being at a higher latitude. But then I found out from my geography prof that it's our maritime climate that's preventing it from snowing. The winds from the pacific ocean, she said, are responsible for moderating the temperatures in the winter along the west coast. Areas in the midwest, south, and northeast receive more snow because they have continental climates.

[Baclava]

35. the problem here isn't snow - it's ICE - ice storms like this require certain conditions

warm air above loaded with moisture, that falls as freezing rain through a cold layer of sub-freezing temperatures closer to the surface and turn to ice as it hits


it's been an aberrant icy event - not really about snow

[BronxBoy]

36. 30 miles north of Atlanta....

maybe it's because I farm for a living but after checking the radar at 6AM, I knew we were going to have issues. Lots of blame to go around.