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Fri Jan 24, 2014, 11:41 AM

Riddle me this: let's say the GOP loses House seats but still hangs on to a slim majority BUT

the tea baggers are the majority within the now smaller GOP overall majority. Would Boehner start trying to cut deals with some Dems to join the remaining non crazy GOPers and keep him as speaker? And what would be a big enough concession to the Dems for them to consider it? Control of certain committee?

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Reply Riddle me this: let's say the GOP loses House seats but still hangs on to a slim majority BUT (Original post)
arely staircase Jan 2014 OP
Laelth Jan 2014 #1
villager Jan 2014 #2
unblock Jan 2014 #3
arely staircase Jan 2014 #4
unblock Jan 2014 #6
arely staircase Jan 2014 #9
stevenleser Jan 2014 #15
Skink Jan 2014 #5
MissMillie Jan 2014 #7
arely staircase Jan 2014 #10
MissMillie Jan 2014 #12
stevenleser Jan 2014 #17
arely staircase Jan 2014 #19
MissMillie Jan 2014 #21
arely staircase Jan 2014 #22
Brother Buzz Jan 2014 #8
arely staircase Jan 2014 #11
Brother Buzz Jan 2014 #16
onenote Jan 2014 #18
randome Jan 2014 #13
Motown_Johnny Jan 2014 #14
arely staircase Jan 2014 #20
MineralMan Jan 2014 #23
arely staircase Jan 2014 #24
MineralMan Jan 2014 #25

Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 11:43 AM

1. Good question.

I have nothing to add to this discussion, but I am interested in hearing what people "in the know" have to say.

-Laelth

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 11:46 AM

2. Interesting. Might help clarify the two actual parties that we have: A Center/Right business

...party, and a far-right fascist kook party.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 11:55 AM

3. how does he actually "govern" the house in that scenario?

does he do what the majority of the republican caucus wants, i.e., do whatever the tea baggers want him to do? if he's fine with that, why not just cut a deal with the tea baggers do to just that?

does he constantly try to forge agreements between all non-tea-baggers in congress (democrats and less-insane republicans), i.e., be a coalition leader with a split republican party? if so, he'd be acting like a pelosi would and he'd be run out of town on a rail.


i can't see it. if the tea-baggers get the majority of a majority gop caucus, then the tea baggers find their own speaker.

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Response to unblock (Reply #3)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 11:59 AM

4. easy

Brings to the floor anything that has a chance of passing whether a majority of Republicans support it or not just like speakers did from the beginning of the republic until Denny Hastert in 1999.

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Response to arely staircase (Reply #4)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 12:11 PM

6. yeah, perhaps you haven't noticed how hyper-partisan washington is these days.

easy to imagine, but that sort of thing ain't gonna happen time soon.

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Response to unblock (Reply #6)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:02 PM

9. but it would end manufactured debt limit/government shutdown freakouts

Or Boehner and the Democrats could just say fuck it let Gohmert be speaker.

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Response to arely staircase (Reply #4)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:23 PM

15. First time the tea party wing doesnt like what he brings up, they hold another vote for Speaker...

... and he is gone.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 12:02 PM

5. Starts wearing a cape

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 12:27 PM

7. If the tea party takes over the GOP majority

Boehner will not be voted in as Speaker.

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Response to MissMillie (Reply #7)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:03 PM

10. care to expand on that? nt

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Response to arely staircase (Reply #10)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:11 PM

12. each new Congress votes for its Speaker

If the GOP maintains control of the House, the GOP will vote in a Speaker. And if the tea party is the majority of the majority, I doubt that they would vote for Boehner to remain as Speaker.

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Response to MissMillie (Reply #12)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:24 PM

17. Yep, he is not their first choice, by a longshot. nt

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Response to MissMillie (Reply #12)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:41 PM

19. everybody gets to vote for speaker (or don't they?)

That's my point. Boehner could get Dems and non (less) crazy Repubs to keep him in.

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Response to arely staircase (Reply #19)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:56 PM

21. Yes everyone votes, but there are two nominees

one from each party.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL30857.pdf



Each new House elects a Speaker by roll call vote when it first convenes. Customarily, the
conference of each major party nominates a candidate whose name is placed in nomination.
Members normally vote for the candidate of their own party conference, but may vote for any
individual, whether nominated or not. To be elected, a candidate must receive an absolute
majority of all the votes cast for individuals. This number may be less than a majority (now 218)
of the full membership of the House, because of vacancies, absentees, or Members voting
“present.”



I suppose that if enough people hated a tea party extremist nominee for Speaker, they all could vote "present" and send the GOP back to the drawing board for a more moderate nominee.

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Response to MissMillie (Reply #21)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 02:09 PM

22. so it is possible

I agree it isn't likely. But there is a way it could happen.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 12:39 PM

8. Smart money says Bohner steps down and Eric Cantor make a run for the seat

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Response to Brother Buzz (Reply #8)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:05 PM

11. I'm thinking the crazies will want someone like gohmert. nt

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Response to arely staircase (Reply #11)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:23 PM

16. Electing Louie Gohmert would be a wet dream for the teabaggers, and it ain't gonna happen

As odious as Eric Canter is, he's a bit more electable. Remember, both sides of the aisle vote for Speaker of the House.

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Response to arely staircase (Reply #11)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:26 PM

18. There aren't enough crazies to make that happen

It seems like there are, but in reality the hard core crazies in the repub caucus are a minority and will remain one in any conceivable 2014 election scenario.

Let's take the most extreme situation -- the repubs hold the House by one vote (218-217), meaning that they lost 15 seats. The exact number of crazies in the repub caucus -- the ones that have consistently been willing to vote against Boehner when he and the rest of the repub caucus have been willing to make even a small accomodation -- is probably somewhere between 40 and 50. But even if you use 64, which is the number of Repubs voting against the trillion dollar budget deal earlier this month, it's not possible to construct a scenario in which the crazies are a majority of the repub House caucus.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:17 PM

13. I 'predicted' (made a wild guess) that something like this would happen last year.

I think it's possible that 'reasonable' Republicans will cross over. But the Tea Party now seems to be in decline so it may not happen.

“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:21 PM

14. He might try, but it won't work


It would be better to let the real face of the new Republican party show. If they want to vote in a nut job then we need to let them vote in a nut job.


Better now than later.


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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #14)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 01:43 PM

20. it is better to let their real face show but not govern

If gohmert became speaker the US would default on its debt obligations.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 02:12 PM

23. Let's say we work our asses off to make sure that doesn't happen.

That's what I say.

GOTV 2014!

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #23)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 02:43 PM

24. well, yeah

I'm a precinct chair in a precinct that hasn't had one in almost 20 years. My goal is to get 40 -45 percent for Wendy Davis in a box that usually sees dems get 30 - 35 percent. I can't help with congress because I don't think there is a Dem even running against Gohmert.

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Response to arely staircase (Reply #24)

Fri Jan 24, 2014, 02:46 PM

25. Excellent! Not every district can elect a Democrat, but

good luck with Wendy!

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