If I lived in Iran, one word would keep me up at night: Libya

[yurbud]

After decades on the US shit list, Libya suddenly got a break during the Bush years--a peaceful rapprochement, business and political connections--it looked like a happy ending.

Then all of the sudden, Libya was faced with a violent revolution backed by the US and NATO.

Today, Libya is the new Somalia.

If I lived in Iran, I would be worried that the US tack toward diplomacy was the same kind of trick--get a country to drop their guard, let our spooks in to size things up and recruit the usual suspects for a rent-a-mob revolution or coup to re-install a government that does exactly what the banksters and oil companies tell them, or, second best, to rape them with a knife like Khaddafi and leave their country the nation-state equivalent of a burned out crack house to serve as a warning to other countries who think they have a right to run their own affairs.

That would keep me up at night. And if I was a politician in Iran, I would wonder what I could do to avoid Libya and Khaddafi's fate.

[Fumesucker]

1. The difference between Libya and Iran

The US backed "revolution" has already happened in Iran before.

[AverageJoe90]

3. 1979 was a truly awful year for the Iranian people.

Granted, it wasn't Jimmy Carter who backed them, of course, but guess who did? The very same people who helped Reagan get into office.....

Sure is too bad the '09 Green Revolution didn't succeed, though. That truly *was* a real people's revolution. ='(

[yurbud]

5. I'm not so sure about the "Green" Revolution

that was around the same time the CIA was engineering a lot of the other color revolutions, and the mere fact of the "color" marketing gave them a very astroturfy feel.

I suspect that one didn't go through precisely because we didn't have the depth of penetration--our surrogates weren't able to cultivate, train, organize, and direct people in the country the way an actual CIA agent could.

[AverageJoe90]

13. The Green Revolution would have succeeded if it had been.

Unfortunately, I have suspected for a long time that the CIA may have had a hand in quashing it if anything; this was definitely a genuine revolution attempt, no question.

[Fumesucker]

7. What makes you think I was talking about 1979?

1953 is the the year I had in mind.

That didn't turn out so well for the Iranians either.

[RainDog]

15. Every Iranian knows about Mosaddegh

Few Americans do.

[Skidmore]

9. 1979 was a truly awful year in Iran

and I was a young wife and mother living there at the time. You watched the doors slamming shut on so much as the religious fundamentalists seized power. Yet the people supported that seizure because it was preferable to living with the defacto dicates of the US and the Seven Sisters (Big Oil). It was a reclamation of the nation from the West and a new claim on charting their future and controlling the natural resources of their nation. So, it was a very mixed bag of goods they placed at the door of the world community. This is the very thing the neocons and Israel didn't want to happen--a freestanding Islamic nation not beholden to the West. The irony is that the majority of Iranians, even two generations down, are really not averse to the US. Americans have been so trained to respond to "reality TV" that they don't see beyond the street theater. Iranians have a clear sense of autonomy and expelled an absolute monarch in 1979 because of it. I just don't see them allowing themselves to be used in that fashion again.

It is well past time for this nation to be allowed the chance to reenter the world community. Not one nation on this earth, including our own and Israel, is morally superior nor should be in a position to determine the course of any other nation. The one thing I take heart in is that our President shows respect to other nations and doesn't insist that we are "exceptional" in the neocon definition of the word.

[yurbud]

11. I've met many Iranians and the reality is so different from the propaganda you see on TV

it's hard to believe they are talking about the people I know.

[AverageJoe90]

14. Yep.

We heard so much agitprop during the Ahmadinejad days about how the Iranians hate Israel and how slavishly devoted they are to the Mullahs, how much they love them, how they're willing to support the destruction of Israel, etc.....when nothing could be further from the truth; as I'm sure you've noticed, many Iranians despise their mullah overlords and want their country to start getting along with the rest of the world, including Israel and the U.S.; and given that Rouhani, one of the few seemingly decent clerics, has been elected to office(as far as we know), things may finally turn around for the better.....we hope, anyway.

[yurbud]

16. our government does not care about mullahs, military dictators, or elected leaders

In other countries, we deal gladly with any and all kinds of governments.

What they care about is obedience to the international financial order, and it is immaterial to them whether other countries persuade, trick, or intimidate their own people into complying as long as they get the job done.

[Cicada]

2. Why would Iranians revolt?

I don't think Iranians are as oppressed by their government as Libyans were. I don't think regime change can be engineered by the west.

[AverageJoe90]

4. Don't forget what happened in '09. n/t

[yurbud]

6. I hope your right. If there is a change, it should come from within and not for the benefit of Wall

Street, oil companies, and banks.

[bemildred]

8. Well, the obvious answer is to govern well.

Destabilization does not work where the citizens are loyal to their government, and the government is loyal to its citizens. That's why we always try to trash the place when we want a "regime change".

[yurbud]

10. economic trashing usually does the trick, but it's tough when they have a product

worth so much that so many other countries want.

[bemildred]

12. Yep, debt slavery works for countries too. nt

[NuclearDem]

17. Iran democratically elected its leadership.

Even with the Ayatollah, it's much more of a democracy than Libya ever was.

Honestly, I'd be far more worried about a coup than a popular revolution, and even that's remote as long as the Ayatollah is behind their leadership.

[bhikkhu]

18. Unlike Iran, Libya, Egypt and Tunisia were led by autocratic dictators

Lest we forget, the hated Ahmadinejad was voted out of office. And if Roujani doesn't work out, they don't have to have a revolution - they can vote him out as well.

Of course you could argue that the real power is behind the scenes (you could make the same argument here as well - our "corporate masters" and so forth), but the fact remains. I would guess that Iran is much more worried about becoming Syria, and the best antidote to that is to engage and involve one's political opposition, to be a good international citizen, and to be more responsive to the needs of the population.

[arely staircase]

19. If I lived in Iran

I would wish Khaddafi's fate on my leaders.