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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsKrugman Blog- The Midterms: Sam Wang Weighs In
My Princeton colleague Sam Wang, one of the best poll aggregators out there and one of the people who, if you were reading him, made you smarter than any of Romneys advisors takes on the PPP poll of selected Congressional districts. His conclusion:
If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. I do not expect this to happen. Many things will happen in the coming 12 months, and the current crisis might be a distant memory. But at this point I do expect Democrats to pick up seats next year, an exception to the midterm rule.
Wang does this with swingometrics. We know that Republicans have a structural advantage in the House: Partly through gerrymandering, partly through sheer accident, Democratic voters (especially African-Americans) are heavily concentrated in a relatively small number of districts, so that even when Democrats win more votes overall as they did last year a GOP majority is likely. Wang estimates that a swing toward Democrats of 6 percent would be needed for them to retake the House. It dont mean a thing if they dont get that swing (sorry, had to put that in.)
So he views the PPP poll in that light and finds that it does indeed suggest a swing big enough to do the job:
As he says, November 2014 is a long way away. But its at least possible that the Republican brand will get worse, not better, over the course of the year, in which case an upset will indeed be in the cards.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/08/the-midterms-sam-wang-weighs-in/?_r=1&
frazzled
(18,402 posts)Puh-leeze. I know a year is an eternity in politics, so today's outlook is completely irrelevent. But still, please let this be true.
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)so it does matter.
Skraxx
(2,970 posts)seen in a very long time. He recognizes this opportunity, and I guarantee you there are plans afoot for a year long, brutal beatdown of the GOP right up until the '14 elections.
Take it to the bank.
Meanwhile, as it's patently obviousl to anyone with a semi-functioning brain, the GOP is in full meltdown and will be incapable of managing a coherent congressional campaign going into 14. They will be in total, utter disarray, with the "moderates" constantly fending off primaries from the right flank, and the radicals fighting primaries from the Chamber of Commerce faction.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Berlum
(7,044 posts)and will be reduced to the minority status in the House that they so richly deserve after this heinous, immoral attack on the United States of America and its citizens.
Bandit
(21,475 posts)Republicans are giving us one sound bite after another....If only Democrats could somehow put some resources into some of those districts that appear a lock for Republicans... We need to instill doubt. Doubt in their ability to Govern, doubt in their ability to tell the Truth, Doubt in their belief in Democracy. I believe even the craziest can be persuaded if done correctly...