Santorum and Romney go down to the wire in the Michigan Republican Presidential Primary. The movement within the Michigan’s primary is fluid. Despite gains from the final debate prior to Tuesday’s election, Mitt Romney ceded most of his lead to Rick Santorum.
A deeper analysis shows that not only is Mitt Romney in danger of losing Michigan, but he is in danger of losing most of the congressional districts and geographical regions of his home state, per Eric Foster,chief pollster and President of Foster McCollum White & Associates. Overall, Mitt Romney has 2.14 point margin (37.90% to 35.86%) over Rick Santorum. Ron Paul is third with 9.12%, Newt Gingrich is fourth with 8.31% and 8.90% of the respondents were undecided. Our poll had 1,359 respondents with a margin of error of 2.66% with a confidenceinterval level of 95%.
The Michigan Republican primary has shifted rapidly in the days since the last CNN debate.
Rick has regained footing with a number of his core constituencies and geographical regions of Michigan that has larger bases of Evangelical Christian and very conservative voters.
Former Governor Mitt Romney had benefited from an unexpectedly poor debateperformance by former Senator Rick Santorum. The shifting narrative to social issues from theeconomy had taken a negative impact on Santorum’s numbers. Our findings suggest however, that delivering a dual message of faith, social and economic issue items has helped Santorumre build his advantage in the Southwestern region of the state and with Evangelical voters.
Santorum is currently leading among the following key cross tab groups of Republican voters including:
-Voters in the Southwestern, Central, Thumb and Northern Lower Peninsula regions of Michigan,
-Voters in the 6 major Republican Counties (Kent, Jackson, Ottawa, Lapeer, Livingston,Eaton and Berrien counties),
-Male voters, and
-Very conservative self identified voters.