HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » NO Repub will win 2016.
Introducing Discussionist: A new forum by the creators of DU

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:23 PM

NO Repub will win 2016.



I just got told, once again, that NO Repub will win in 2016 (and told, because I said it was a possibility, that I wanted a republican elected president)

If you believe that it isn't possible for a repub to "win" the White House, you're either suffering under a delusion or not paying attention.

The VRA has been gutted and the result is that millions of democratic voters will be disenfranchised. Repub controlled legislatures are busy as bees crafting legislation that will do just that.

There seems to be a strong strain of complacency on DU regarding the 2016 election.

It's truly foolish.


47 replies, 1704 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 47 replies Author Time Post
Reply NO Repub will win 2016. (Original post)
cali Jul 2013 OP
MH1 Jul 2013 #1
Moses2SandyKoufax Jul 2013 #2
Motown_Johnny Jul 2013 #3
cali Jul 2013 #5
Motown_Johnny Jul 2013 #9
cali Jul 2013 #11
Motown_Johnny Jul 2013 #20
Skidmore Jul 2013 #16
Andy823 Jul 2013 #21
Motown_Johnny Jul 2013 #24
HappyMe Jul 2013 #4
cali Jul 2013 #7
HappyMe Jul 2013 #14
CrispyQ Jul 2013 #6
cali Jul 2013 #8
CrispyQ Jul 2013 #18
octoberlib Jul 2013 #10
MineralMan Jul 2013 #12
Shankapotomus Jul 2013 #13
Andy823 Jul 2013 #25
Shankapotomus Jul 2013 #29
mick063 Jul 2013 #15
Andy823 Jul 2013 #22
mick063 Jul 2013 #32
DonCoquixote Jul 2013 #35
mick063 Jul 2013 #37
DonCoquixote Jul 2013 #39
mick063 Jul 2013 #40
DonCoquixote Jul 2013 #41
Andy823 Jul 2013 #42
Andy823 Jul 2013 #43
mick063 Jul 2013 #46
Andy823 Jul 2013 #47
Nye Bevan Jul 2013 #17
cali Jul 2013 #19
Nye Bevan Jul 2013 #23
MrSlayer Jul 2013 #26
highmindedhavi Jul 2013 #27
sofa king Jul 2013 #28
Turbineguy Jul 2013 #30
progressoid Jul 2013 #31
customerserviceguy Jul 2013 #33
DonCoquixote Jul 2013 #34
BlueStater Jul 2013 #36
Moses2SandyKoufax Jul 2013 #38
HiPointDem Jul 2013 #44
temporary311 Jul 2013 #45

Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:27 PM

1. Believing they can't win is the surest way to make it happen.

F*ck, people, f*cking GEORGE DUBYA BUSH got enough votes to steal it. TWICE. Neither Gore nor Kerry was perfect, but either one of them looks like Einstein, Gandhi, and Mandela rolled into one compared to f*cking GEORGE DUBYA BUSH.

What the hell is wrong with you?

(if you think the republicans can't possibly win in 2016)

edit to add, in case it isn't obvious: I'm not arguing with the OP, I'm agreeing!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:27 PM

2. 2016 is still a long way out,

we have no way of knowing what the political landscape will look like in 3 years. Looking at the current Republican lineup of potential candidates (besides Christie if he runs), I don't see any of those candidates beating a competent Democrat at this time. I know it's rare for one party to win the white house three times in a row, I just don't see Santorum, Rubio, Ryan, or Rand Paul winning.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:28 PM

3. There is a possibility

but without some kind of huge scandal it is unlikely.

The (R) primary process is helping us by forcing them to take extreme right win (aka nutjob) positions just to be viable at winning the nomination.

Democrats can start out with far less extreme viewpoints and still win the nomination in 2016, giving them more room to stake out in the center once the primary process ends.


The complacency will end once we have a name and a face to be worried about. It is to early to get all worked up about 2016 one way or the other.


Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #3)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:31 PM

5. The Voting Rights Act was gutted. gutted.

and there is no doubt that millions of dem voters will be disenfranchised.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Reply #5)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:37 PM

9. We can file lawsuits after the 2014 elections

and maybe even after the 2013 elections in some states.


The preclearence is gone but section 2 still exists. It is likely that many of these laws will be dealt with before 2016. There is even a slight (although it is very slight) possibility that a new formula will be in place before 2016.


Even then, most of these laws are in states that (R)s would win anyways. It is unlikely that this change in the law will be enough to hand the White House to an (R) in 2016.


It is to soon to get so worked up about 2016. For all we know Rick Perry will be their nominee.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #9)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:38 PM

11. true, but there's no guarantee of outcome.

and there are states like Wisconsin and PA.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Reply #11)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:51 PM

20. agreed

Which is why it is to soon to get worked up about it.


We need to focus on 2014 and win some key battles even with disenfranchised voters being left out.


Lots of crazy RW Governors got elected in 2010 and will be back on the ballot in 2014. PA and WI are just two of them. It is very possible that we will have (D)s in those seats in time to do something about the 2016 election.


I am sympathetic to your concerns about the Shelby County v. Holder case. So much so that I already ordered my signs for the August 24th march on Washington, and booked my hotel for that matter. I still can't decide if I should fly or just drive. Both are a pain now a days.

Here is a link to my signs (which have already been shipped and I should have early next week). These are both 2 feet tall and 4 feet wide and fit into something I made back in '09, during the Health Care debate, to hold them which has a handle over 6 feet long. Please note the first one.

http://pdf.buildasign.com//Proof.ashx?tcid=6E4555474A77394D694949444E476E6E4C2B516664513D3D&width=700&height=450&watermark=false&r=1372550655289


http://pdf.buildasign.com//Proof.ashx?tcid=7238755A504331755752493047334E5963344D7668413D3D&width=700&height=450&watermark=false&r=1372550825142






P.S. The extra period in the second one, after the last question mark, has been edited out, this was just a proof.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #9)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:44 PM

16. The 2014 election is essential because we need Congress.

Voter registration should be happening well ahead of that election.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Skidmore (Reply #16)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:51 PM

21. Exactly

The whole scandal BS going on is all about republicans taking back the senate and keeping control of the House. If they get get democrats to not voter for whatever reason, they have a good chance of getting what they want. If democrats vote they don't have that same chance.

If we can't keep the Senate and gains seats, at least, in the house, well nothing will get done in congress up to 2016 when republicans will once again lay all the blame on the president and the democrats, even though the facts say otherwise.

We should have learned on thing in 2010, not voting to "teach Obama a lesson" was a disaster! Republicans took the House, and are now in control of a lot of states. We don't need that to happen again because if it does, the future looks bad!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Skidmore (Reply #16)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:58 PM

24. Congress and some key Governorships

in swing states where they are pulling this crap with voter discrimination.

2014 is going to be huge one way or the other.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:31 PM

4. It's kind of early to worry about 2016.

We really don't have a roster of candidates for either side yet.

It is time to get worked up about 2014.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to HappyMe (Reply #4)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:32 PM

7. that's true, but the point about the VRA holds equally true for 2014

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Reply #7)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:41 PM

14. Some way, somehow

we are going to have to figure out how to gotv within the confines of voting rules.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:32 PM

6. And if it does happen, it will be the unhappy left's fault. -nt

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CrispyQ (Reply #6)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:33 PM

8. No it won't. It will be because of the gutting of the VRA

that's not even arguable. The "unhappy left" of which I am a member will do what they invariably do, work for and vote for the dem.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Reply #8)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:49 PM

18. What I meant is that the unhappy left is who 'they' will blame.

They being the media, the DLC democrats, the republicans, everyone. They will blame us & our 'lackluster' turnout. The left still gets blamed for 2010. Yet, the 'news' media never, never discusses gerrymandering & the recent SCOTUS ruling is already history, but when the dems lose next time, it will be our fault. I'm right there with you cali, a member of the unhappy left.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:37 PM

10. It's not only foolish, it's dangerous.

For anyone who thinks the Republican party is on it's last legs or is going away anytime soon, they're not. They've been focusing on their "red state strategy" since they couldn't win nationally and have hijacked quite a few state legislatures.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:38 PM

12. You are correct, but my concern is for 2014.

That is the issue that is the most current, and possibly the most important.

We CAN lose, and the Republicans CAN win.

GOTV 2014 and Beyond!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:39 PM

13. Why is our side not

introducing voting laws that favor our side?

Fight fire with fire, already!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Shankapotomus (Reply #13)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:58 PM

25. We can

However as long as the teapublicans control the House nothing will get passed. The first thing we need to do is vote out the do nothing members of congress and replace them with people who will try and work for the people, or at least not privatize the whole country. The supreme court did this, and if we don't make sure we have a democrat in the WH come 2016, there will be even more radical right wing judges put on the court. We can't afford that!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Andy823 (Reply #25)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 01:14 PM

29. I would presume we can do more right now

at a state level, though. Like restrict voting time for when nursing homes are serving dinner maybe.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:44 PM

15. "There seems to be a strong strain of complacency on DU regarding the 2016 election."

 

Having your "Progressive" President appoint Goldman Sachs as his cabinet will do that to you.


I'm going with the "let the Teabillies shell shock the nation into common sense" route.

No more boiled frog for me.

I don't believe in doing this half assed. If we are going to be a blatant corporate state, then get on with it so that we can get a few American Idol zombies woke the fuck up.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to mick063 (Reply #15)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:55 PM

22. Great plan

Let the Teabillies destroy the country between 2014 and 2016, then let Christie get in the WH. Boy some plan! Do you really think turning the country over to the morons on the right will make things better? If you do then you need some serious counseling!

Once they take control they won't let go, so your "plan" sucks big time!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Andy823 (Reply #22)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 02:22 PM

32. "Do you really think turning the country over to the morons on the right will make things better?"

 

As if this hasn't been done already.

What you propose is worse than what I propose.

You suggest that the typical American goes to bed at night thinking our President is a "Socialist" because FOX (or perhaps you?) told them so.

In effect, we are helping to redefine what the Left is. Do this slowly over a couple of generations and people won't know any better. They will think Reagan type policy is far, far left and the Koch brother vision is centrist. The younger folks won't know any better because it is the environment they grew up in.

The boiled frog approach is much greater long term damage in my opinion.

Better to shock the folks that remember what Social Security, Medicare, and unemployment insurance is. Better that the Tea Party awakens them from their slumber into outrage.

Now if you Authoritarian Gatekeepers (thanks to the DUer that came up with that beautiful term) can provide me with a candidate that is far different than what I suspect you put in front of me, I will work hard for your cause. I will contribute money to your cause. I will actively contribute.

You give me a Hillary or Obama and I abstain. Not only do I abstain, but I actively point out the worts.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to mick063 (Reply #32)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 02:35 PM

35. and while this experiment of yours goes off

The GOP goes to war with Iran,so bring back ss medicare and unemployment gets tabled.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DonCoquixote (Reply #35)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 03:02 PM

37. Yep it will get ugly

 

How else do you think people will wake the fuck up?

Certainly not with Obama defenders telling the world that things will be different. He campaigned on drawing a line in the sand with Iran. He wouldn't hesitate to drop a couple bunker busters on them. You know that as well as I do. He negotiated cuts to Social Security. Give me some real difference maker arguments please.

Try the scare tactics on someone that doesn't know any better.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to mick063 (Reply #37)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 04:33 PM

39. scare tactics

aka facts, facts proven in 2000.
Go ahead, keep saying that the GOP and MSM will not march in lockstep behind a GOp president, even though we had eight years of just that. Go ahead and tell the world that your protest votew as done in principle, even though it means their death.

and go ahead and pretend that while it gets ugly, that you might not be the first to to thrown to the flames.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DonCoquixote (Reply #39)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 04:35 PM

40. Amped them up a bit I see.

 

I'm quaking in my boots.

Not over the GOP. Over the current Administration.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to mick063 (Reply #40)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 04:37 PM

41. I do not need you to quake in your boots

because even if you disagree with me, I can point to you in 2016 and ask "was it worth it?"

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to mick063 (Reply #40)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 05:28 PM

42. Truly amazing

You don't seem to be afraid of the GOP, or the tea baggers, but you are "quacking in your boots" over the Obama administration! So I guess once your buddy "Christie" gets in the WH, he is going to so much better? Yeah, right, and I guess when the teabaggers take over congress they will play fair, not put in place laws that would simply destroy the country and turn it into their own warped version of "heaven on earth"!

Then again maybe you are waiting for a Rand Paul administration.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to mick063 (Reply #32)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 05:35 PM

43. How about

A Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, will you abstain also? You are very good at calling people "authoritarian gatekeepers", but what the hell kind of a country would we have if one of your teapublican clowns got elected, along with a congress full of brain dead tea baggers who don't know their ass from a hole in the ground? You seem to think that would be better. So your plan is to teach the country a lesson and hope there is a country left once they get through with it, right?

I mean we all know just how wonderful your scenario would be, so much better than what we have now!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Andy823 (Reply #43)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 06:26 PM

46. "but what the hell kind of a country would we have if one of your teapublican clowns got elected"

 

A pissed off country.

You folks aren't grasping the point.

We don't get off of this merry go round without a pissed off country.

My company commander in boot camp used to bark at us, "Give a guy enough rope and he will hang himself".

Give those fuckwads some rope.

Instead of the slow torturous death that the DNC is giving us, my proposal gives us a fighting chance. My proposal is similar to Japan "awakening the sleeping Giant".

You want more of the same? You want more Obama? You want to give us the corporate version of Chinese water torture? You want to give me Hillary or some other lame "centrist", "third way", corporate schmoozer?

I'm not buying it.

Give me Hermain Cane, Michelle Bachman, or the most batshit crazy nutcase you can dream up with, or give me a guy like Bernie Sanders, Alan Grayson, or Elizabeth Warren.

No more half assed shit for me.

No more delusional bullshit.

No more lies.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to mick063 (Reply #46)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 08:11 PM

47. Things may be screwed up now

But it's insane to think that giving the congress and the WH over to a bunch of radical morons for 4 years would make things better. Look what the republicans that won state elections back in 2010 have done already. Look at the insanity in the House after the tea party clowns got elected. Look at how much damage Bush did in his 8 years in office, and compared to the Rand Paul tea party nuts Bush will look like a liberal!

You can't put the patients in charge of the asylum and expect things to get better, it just won't work. Sure we have a long way to go to get things fixed, to bring about change, but you way is a disaster in the making one we may never be able to come back from. You want change then start working for it, don't just sit back and watch the crazies take over. I would love to see a Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren in the WH, but if you don't change the people in congress it won't make a damned bit of difference. Change starts at the bottom not at the top. No matter what any president wants to do, no matter what changes they may want to make, without help from congress they get nothing!

Jumping out of the frying pan into the fire is not really a smart idea.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:46 PM

17. It's possible. But not likely enough that we should pressure an 80-year old woman

to throw away a career that she loves and is good at.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Nye Bevan (Reply #17)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:51 PM

19. It's entirely factual that your post is completely unrelated to the op

It's also a sad little attempt at snark or an attempt to derail the op. In any case, it's lame, hon.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Reply #19)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 12:56 PM

23. How do you decide between "honey", "dearie", "genius", "sweetie", "hon" and "dear"? (nt)

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 01:01 PM

26. I think it's likely that the Republican will win 2016.

 

Realistically, the Republicans should have had no shot at all in 2000 because of the perceived great stewardship of Clinton in the booming 90's. but I can't tell you how many people said "Yeah, but I just think it's time for a change" and voted for Bush. No one really cared about the blue dress and no one really cared about Gore's supposed wooden personality, they just felt it was too much of one party at the top.

Unless the Republicans run a real lunatic teabagger, and thankfully it looks like that's the only kind that can pass the primary, they'll probably win.

That's what makes the failure of 2009 so bad, we had a real opportunity to do great things and the corporately owned senate just wouldn't do them and Obama wouldn't do anything but beg the right for love instead of rolling them.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 01:03 PM

27. Banks/Wall St. will decide

Rinse. Lather. Repeat.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 01:04 PM

28. Nixon, Reagan, W. Bush

The Watergate break-in was at its core an attempted election theft. The objective was to illegally obtain insider political information against opponents. In its aftermath, Nixon attempted a cover-up.

Republicans learned from Watergate, and Ronald Reagan's October Surprise is still widely derided as a conspiracy theory, but here's the thing: the first story Reagan's people told about it is now discredited. Bill Casey did meet with Iranians; H.W. Bush did know about it, and though it took twenty-five years to find it, it's now documented.

W. stole it twice, simple as that, and the only proof required is that Republicans used the exact same tactics to hold off any real investigation of their actions, then destroyed the evidence which would have exonerated them. In a court of law, that would be considered probative evidence against them.

Now consider that it was only through the efforts of W., preventing researchers from fully probing the records of Reagan and H. W., which prevented some of those former officials from additional prosecution (the proof about H.W. being informed of Casey's movements in Europe, which came out half a decade ago, was overlooked by accident and found its way into the public record).

Then consider that the W. Administration was the most criminal, corrupt, and malevolent Presidency ever to curse the United States of America. Jeb Bush must win the White House to continue to protect his father and his brother. He will destroy anyone in his path, starting with his primary opponents and stopping at nothing with his Democratic opponent.

He will try to burn this nation to the ground before his family is called to account for what they have done. We'd best be ready for that, in addition to time-tested election theft games.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 01:27 PM

30. The republicans don't think they can win.

That's why they are in such a hurry to finish the job Reagan started.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 02:20 PM

31. It may not always be complacency.

For some it's too depressing to think about the possibility of a GOPer in the White House. So it's easier to put on the rose colored glasses than face the cold hard truth.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 02:30 PM

33. Sorry to hear that you got accused

of wanting a Rethug to win, just because you've examined the possibilities. That happens to me over on the Zimmerman threads, because I see what a poor job the prosecution is doing, and the effectiveness of GZ's legal team in winning all kinds of skirmishes. Just because you can see what the other side sees, doesn't mean you're taking that side.

I do think it is 80-90% likely that Hillary will run, get the nomination pretty much wrapped up by the end of February, then win the general, as GOP'ers decide that 2020 is their best shot, only once in American politics has one party held the White House for more than twelve years.

Only the long shots will emerge to run on the Rethuglican side, Rand Paul is taking that gamble, because he knows in a "normal" open seat year, he'd be a 10% candidate like his father was in most primary states.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 02:32 PM

34. Of course

Because if we believed that a GOP person could get the WH, then we could not engage in our favorite pastime, which is beating each other up. Civil Warfare worked great in 2000 and 2010, why not 2016?

sarcasm flag up

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 03:00 PM

36. I doubt anyone could envision anything as horrible as "President George W. Bush" in 1997.

You're right. Nothing is certain, as terrible a thought as that is.

On the other hand, the GOP brand was also nowhere near as damaged 16 years ago as it is today.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BlueStater (Reply #36)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 03:25 PM

38. Hell, I doubt anyone could envision anything as horrible as what ended up unfolding

back in January 2001. Bush ran as a moderate and somewhat isolationist! Back in 1997, the GOP was very much the party of Dole, Forbes, Specter, and HW Bush.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 05:57 PM

44. the republicans will never win again! the party is dying! dying, do you hear me????

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2013, 06:00 PM

45. They might not win, but they can still "win."

Or was the reign of Bush the Lesser a figment of my imagination?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread