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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe enthusiasm gap: Republicans' turnout problem
Enthusiasm gap? Second straight contest in which turnout is way off 2008.
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/165986446811996160
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/165986446811996160
Nevada Republican Caucuses:
2008
Mitt Romney[font color="white" size="size" face="face"] [/font]22,646
Ron Paul[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]-- .. .[/font]6,084
John McCain[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]-.. [/font]5,650
Mike Huckabee[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]--[/font]3,616
Fred Thompson[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]..[/font]3,519
Rudy Giuliani[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]----[/font]1,910
Duncan Hunter[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]....[/font]890
Total[font color="white" size="size" face="face"] --... .[/font]44,315
2012 (with 71 percent reporting)
Mitt Romney[font color="white" size="size" face="face"] [/font]11,822
Newt Gingrich[font color="white" size="size" face="face"] .[/font] 5,623
Ron Paul[font color="white" size="size" face="face"] - [/font]4,619
Rick Santorum[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]-..[/font]2,749
Total[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]---- ..[/font]24,813
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/nevada
Comparing Republican Florida primary results: 2008 vs. 2012
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002249608
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The enthusiasm gap: Republicans' turnout problem (Original Post)
ProSense
Feb 2012
OP
If they can't turn the base out to get their favorite nominee elected in the primaries....
Old and In the Way
Feb 2012
#2
My Republican friends are worried about the elections...and I love it!
great white snark
Feb 2012
#4
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)1. Good info.
This is very important. I will also add that I believe Romney had 51% of the vote in 2008. He is going to have to have a strong finish in Clark County to get to 51% this time. And this is a much weaker field compared to 2008. Romney also actually CARRIED FEWER counties this time then he did when he won in 2008.
I know at first many were worried about a Romney nomination. And although still early, it is looking more and more like this is going to be a lame duck nominee for the GOP. We all know any GOP candidate will have 47% of the vote. But right now its hard to see how he gets to 50 or 51% nationally.
The latest polls have Obama up 10 in New Hampshire!
Old and In the Way
(37,540 posts)2. If they can't turn the base out to get their favorite nominee elected in the primaries....
you have to wonder how the normally apolitical Republican voters will turn out to support a candidate they probably don't like in the GE. Unless the political dynamics change dramatically, I'm betting the RNC is getting more concerned by the day.
Spazito
(49,765 posts)3. It certainly shows 'none of the above' is still the favorite...
candidate for the repubs this election. It doesn't bode well for the repubs and it DOES bode well for the President and the Dems, imo.
great white snark
(2,646 posts)4. My Republican friends are worried about the elections...and I love it!
Poor, poor Repubs have to work so hard to muster any excitement over Romney. I almost feel bad.
Thanks ProSense, hope you and yours are well.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)5. The problems
go back to Iowa:
Turnout in the early Republican nominating contests could be a warning sign for Romney: the participation rate in Iowa barely exceeded the states 2008 mark, when many GOP voters were disaffected and depressed. New Hampshire officials projected record turnout in Tuesdays primary, but exit polls showed about two-fifths of the voters were non-Republicans who crossed over to participate.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002152507
ProSense
(116,464 posts)6. Update:
With 83 percent reporting, the total is now 27,716.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/nevada
ProSense
(116,464 posts)7. GOP turnout troubles continue
GOP turnout troubles continue
By Steve Benen
Counting the votes in Nevada's Republican presidential caucuses turned out to be more difficult than expected, but this morning, the final results were announced. The tally largely reflects what we already knew: Mitt Romney won easily, finishing with 50% (16,486 votes).
What was far more interesting was the turnout.
Going into Saturday's contest, Nevada GOP leaders told reporters they expected in upwards of 70,000 Republicans to participate. The final tally shows the party failed to even reach half that total.
What's more, if Nevada were the only state that struggled, it'd be easier to overlook. Unfortunately for the GOP, though, the poor showing in the Silver State fits into a larger pattern.
The Republicans' primary in Florida last week, for example, showed a sharp decline in turnout (about 14%) as compared to 2008. In the Iowa caucuses, GOP turnout fell short of expectations, and in the New Hampshire primary, it happened again. Turnout in South Carolina was strong, but given the party's difficulties in the other four contests, it's proving to be the exception.
- more -
http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/06/10330326-gop-turnout-troubles-continue
By Steve Benen
Counting the votes in Nevada's Republican presidential caucuses turned out to be more difficult than expected, but this morning, the final results were announced. The tally largely reflects what we already knew: Mitt Romney won easily, finishing with 50% (16,486 votes).
What was far more interesting was the turnout.
Total turnout was 32,930, far less than the 44,000 Republicans who voted in the GOP caucuses in 2008.
Going into Saturday's contest, Nevada GOP leaders told reporters they expected in upwards of 70,000 Republicans to participate. The final tally shows the party failed to even reach half that total.
What's more, if Nevada were the only state that struggled, it'd be easier to overlook. Unfortunately for the GOP, though, the poor showing in the Silver State fits into a larger pattern.
The Republicans' primary in Florida last week, for example, showed a sharp decline in turnout (about 14%) as compared to 2008. In the Iowa caucuses, GOP turnout fell short of expectations, and in the New Hampshire primary, it happened again. Turnout in South Carolina was strong, but given the party's difficulties in the other four contests, it's proving to be the exception.
- more -
http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/06/10330326-gop-turnout-troubles-continue