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ProSense

(116,464 posts)
Sun Feb 5, 2012, 02:21 PM Feb 2012

The enthusiasm gap: Republicans' turnout problem

Enthusiasm gap? Second straight contest in which turnout is way off 2008.

https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/165986446811996160


Nevada Republican Caucuses:

2008

Mitt Romney[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]……[/font]22,646

Ron Paul[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]--…..….[/font]6,084

John McCain[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]-..…[/font]5,650

Mike Huckabee[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]--[/font]3,616

Fred Thompson[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]..[/font]3,519

Rudy Giuliani[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]----[/font]1,910

Duncan Hunter[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]....[/font]890

Total[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]…--...….[/font]44,315


2012 (with 71 percent reporting)

Mitt Romney[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]……[/font]11,822

Newt Gingrich[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]….[/font] 5,623

Ron Paul[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]…-………[/font]4,619

Rick Santorum[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]-..[/font]2,749

Total[font color="white" size="size" face="face"]----……..[/font]24,813

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/nevada


Comparing Republican Florida primary results: 2008 vs. 2012
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002249608


7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
The enthusiasm gap: Republicans' turnout problem (Original Post) ProSense Feb 2012 OP
Good info. aaaaaa5a Feb 2012 #1
If they can't turn the base out to get their favorite nominee elected in the primaries.... Old and In the Way Feb 2012 #2
It certainly shows 'none of the above' is still the favorite... Spazito Feb 2012 #3
My Republican friends are worried about the elections...and I love it! great white snark Feb 2012 #4
The problems ProSense Feb 2012 #5
Update: ProSense Feb 2012 #6
GOP turnout troubles continue ProSense Feb 2012 #7

aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts)
1. Good info.
Sun Feb 5, 2012, 02:28 PM
Feb 2012


This is very important. I will also add that I believe Romney had 51% of the vote in 2008. He is going to have to have a strong finish in Clark County to get to 51% this time. And this is a much weaker field compared to 2008. Romney also actually CARRIED FEWER counties this time then he did when he won in 2008.


I know at first many were worried about a Romney nomination. And although still early, it is looking more and more like this is going to be a lame duck nominee for the GOP. We all know any GOP candidate will have 47% of the vote. But right now its hard to see how he gets to 50 or 51% nationally.


The latest polls have Obama up 10 in New Hampshire!





Old and In the Way

(37,540 posts)
2. If they can't turn the base out to get their favorite nominee elected in the primaries....
Sun Feb 5, 2012, 02:30 PM
Feb 2012

you have to wonder how the normally apolitical Republican voters will turn out to support a candidate they probably don't like in the GE. Unless the political dynamics change dramatically, I'm betting the RNC is getting more concerned by the day.

Spazito

(49,765 posts)
3. It certainly shows 'none of the above' is still the favorite...
Sun Feb 5, 2012, 02:37 PM
Feb 2012

candidate for the repubs this election. It doesn't bode well for the repubs and it DOES bode well for the President and the Dems, imo.

great white snark

(2,646 posts)
4. My Republican friends are worried about the elections...and I love it!
Sun Feb 5, 2012, 02:40 PM
Feb 2012

Poor, poor Repubs have to work so hard to muster any excitement over Romney. I almost feel bad.

Thanks ProSense, hope you and yours are well.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
5. The problems
Sun Feb 5, 2012, 03:55 PM
Feb 2012

go back to Iowa:

Turnout in the early Republican nominating contests could be a warning sign for Romney: the participation rate in Iowa barely exceeded the state’s 2008 mark, when many GOP voters were disaffected and depressed. New Hampshire officials projected record turnout in Tuesday’s primary, but exit polls showed about two-fifths of the voters were non-Republicans who crossed over to participate.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002152507

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
7. GOP turnout troubles continue
Mon Feb 6, 2012, 09:57 AM
Feb 2012
GOP turnout troubles continue

By Steve Benen

Counting the votes in Nevada's Republican presidential caucuses turned out to be more difficult than expected, but this morning, the final results were announced. The tally largely reflects what we already knew: Mitt Romney won easily, finishing with 50% (16,486 votes).

What was far more interesting was the turnout.

Total turnout was 32,930, far less than the 44,000 Republicans who voted in the GOP caucuses in 2008.

Going into Saturday's contest, Nevada GOP leaders told reporters they expected in upwards of 70,000 Republicans to participate. The final tally shows the party failed to even reach half that total.

What's more, if Nevada were the only state that struggled, it'd be easier to overlook. Unfortunately for the GOP, though, the poor showing in the Silver State fits into a larger pattern.

The Republicans' primary in Florida last week, for example, showed a sharp decline in turnout (about 14%) as compared to 2008. In the Iowa caucuses, GOP turnout fell short of expectations, and in the New Hampshire primary, it happened again. Turnout in South Carolina was strong, but given the party's difficulties in the other four contests, it's proving to be the exception.

- more -

http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/06/10330326-gop-turnout-troubles-continue


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