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Fri Feb 22, 2013, 04:23 PM

The most terrifying graph you will see all year. Or century, for that matter.



See that 5 degrees Celsius we're projected to hit by 2050? That's 9 degrees Fahrenheit. That means the end of human civilization, and possibly of the human race itself. Within our lifetimes.



A 1.5C Temperature Rise Would Set Off Siberia's Permafrost Carbon Bomb, Scientists Warn

by Tafline Laylin, 02/22/13

Read more: A 1.5C Temperature Rise Would Set Off Siberia's Permafrost Carbon Bomb, Scientists Warn | Inhabitat - Sustainable Design Innovation, Eco Architecture, Green Building
http://inhabitat.com/a-1-5c-temperature-rise-would-set-off-siberias-permafrost-carbon-bomb/


More plus important links:
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-most-terrifying-graph-youll-see-all.html


The Science Pope blog makes clear exactly what this all means:

Your brain will fight it, even with the numbers on the page staring back at you, because the collapse of civilization is simply beyond human comprehension. To really internalize this information means you would need to accept things like:

- You are among the last people that will ever walk the Earth
- Your children won’t survive to middle age
- All of the beauty, culture, and scientific discoveries we’ve unlocked will return to the ether from whence they came.


Forgive my French, but that is some heavy shit. Yet our ability to understand and feel threatened by this information is hindered by the fact that things don’t seem that bad right now. Sure things feel a little “off”, but how can we be so close to oblivion when life is (generally speaking) so good, modern and happy?



The answer is exponentials. Climate change does not follow a linear path (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc…), it follow an exponential path (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, etc…). Global temperature is increasing exponentially, fueled by humanity’s exponential rise in energy use, population, and economic growth. As you can see from the chart, exponential functions look like a hockey stick: they stay low for a long time, and then rise very suddenly and rapidly once they turn the corner. Everyone has some experience with exponential growth in their daily lives…any bank account with compounded interest will follow this curve, and exponentials are the reason that sickness spreads so rapidly through your child’s school.

http://science-pope.com/2013/02/i-bet-you-didnt-know/

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Reply The most terrifying graph you will see all year. Or century, for that matter. (Original post)
kpete Feb 2013 OP
phantom power Feb 2013 #1
jollyreaper2112 Feb 2013 #2
dixiegrrrrl Feb 2013 #3
tclambert Feb 2013 #7
Mojorabbit Feb 2013 #31
AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #4
MindMover Feb 2013 #5
AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #10
patrice Feb 2013 #27
Bucky Feb 2013 #12
AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #14
Laelth Feb 2013 #21
AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #23
SleeplessinSoCal Feb 2013 #24
AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #25
Fantastic Anarchist Feb 2013 #35
AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #36
Fedaykin Feb 2013 #6
neffernin Feb 2013 #11
Bucky Feb 2013 #13
neffernin Feb 2013 #15
AverageJoe90 Feb 2013 #16
Bucky Feb 2013 #8
toby jo Feb 2013 #9
SleeplessinSoCal Feb 2013 #17
patrice Feb 2013 #28
Buzz Clik Feb 2013 #18
WillyT Feb 2013 #19
johnnyreb Feb 2013 #20
ErikJ Feb 2013 #22
patrice Feb 2013 #26
Kablooie Feb 2013 #29
MFM008 Feb 2013 #30
Mojorabbit Feb 2013 #32
Blanks Feb 2013 #33
Fantastic Anarchist Feb 2013 #34

Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 04:31 PM

1. We aren't going to fix this, as the top graph makes depressingly clear

Our emissions will be fixed for us, via collapse. The real question is, will collapse happen soon enough to prevent change that even humans won't survive.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 05:02 PM

2. Need to get the terms right

This is not a human extinction event, this is the end of the world as we know it.

Hype just gives idiots something to carp about like with nuclear winter. Could we end all life on earth with nukes? Of course not. Could we blast ourselves back to the Stone Age? Absolutely. And even a partial exchange would make WWII on the eastern front look idylic. Even blasting ourselves back to the 19th century would be horrible beyond contemplation. But if you overblow some of it idiots will assume you are overblowing all of it.

I think the collapse of civilization from the equator to temporate zones would be pretty goddamn awful. Certainly it will be the end of western standards of living for most of the west.

You know why it won't be fixed? The people in charge will be dead by then. They don't give a fuck.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 05:05 PM

3. "we're projected to hit by 2050?"

We have blown thru every single date projection of climate numbers already..
a steady stream of headlines over the last few years has announced new levels of climate change indicators
"years before predicted".
We R screwn. Much much sooner than originally thought.

Ages from now, if any humans are left, they will be wondering "how could they have been so stupid?"
much as we shake our heads in amazement at the stupid events of history in our past.

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #3)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:26 PM

7. Because the vested interests (oil, coal, natural gas) want to make a penny more of profit.

If they have to choose between saving your life and making that penny of extra profit, well, I hope you have your will drawn up. If that penny of profit this quarter results in the collapse of human civilization 50 years from now, well, . . . IT'S PROFIT!

The only argument they will listen to is "You can make even more profit later." Yet, in a choice between profit now and 100 times the profits 50 years from now, they may well choose "profit now." The 60-year-olds in the corporate boardrooms don't look much beyond 5 years in their planning.

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #3)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 02:06 AM

31. Yep. nt

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 05:43 PM

4. There's a few problems here, kpete. Big ones.

First of all, with maybe one or two exceptions(Hansen & Lovelock might be the only ones), no climate scientist worth his or her salt has ever predicted the supposedly possible extinction of the human race or "inevitable" end of human civilization though AGW alone under even the most pessimistic scenarios.

Also, while most of the temperature graph you've posted looks decently done, there's one glaring flaw: that pink line. There is no plausible prediction out there that has us going beyond 6-7*C by 2100, and that's with all feedbacks at their absolute worst extent. Period. And the pink line suggests we'll be hitting 5*C by 2050.....which is simply not possible under these circumstances, as we'd had to have burned more fossil fuels than are available on Earth, and frankly, we'd certainly have had to see methane releases far earlier as well.

Things are already bad enough as is, kpete. The last thing we need now is "Chicken Little" bullshit being distributed as if it were factual(shame on you, Science Pope!); how in the hell are most people going to want to wake up, if everything they hear from our side is how we're inevitably doomed to extinction or that civilization will surely collapse, etc.?

No wonder why we're having trouble making progress..........



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Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #4)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:10 PM

5. YUP, its the end of the world folks and all ya have to do is not wake up ...

or better yet, we got another comet coming, lets all jump on it and ride our sorry asses out of this mess ...

OR EVEN BETTER YET, LETS START PUTTING OUR HEADS TOGETHER AND WORKING ON RATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHOICES THAT WILL HEAL OUR ONLY HOME ...

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Response to MindMover (Reply #5)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:35 PM

10. Amen to that, MindMover!

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Response to MindMover (Reply #5)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 09:54 PM

27. K&R !

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Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #4)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:38 PM

12. One reason why is that climatologists rarely project outcomes beyond 2100.

The problem with that being the calendar keeps progressing after that date, as do the climate-warming processes, like the defrosting of Siberia, the disappearance of the Antarctic ice cap, and the desertification of the Amazon and Congo Basins. Ending of greenhouse emissions won't reverse those self-sustaining processes. If we flat out ended all global emissions today, the Arctic ice cap would still disappear over the century. There's still no science in on where and how these processes will find a plateau and stop making things hotter year after year.

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Response to Bucky (Reply #12)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:46 PM

14. Good points here, Bucky. n/t

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Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #4)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 08:04 PM

21. Very professionally done.

I agree with your sentiment. I am not familiar enough with the science to be useful to that part of the discussion.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #21)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 09:18 PM

23. Thanks for the support.

Yes, it can be said with certainly that climate change has indeed presented us with many challenges, some potentially serious, unfortunately, and that we do need to ramp up the action on combatting climate change ASAP.....however, though, it also seems there's been a huge explosion in extreme, implausible predictions, and hardcore pessimism ("we can't stop it!" "It's too late!"), and dare I say, even a little bit of fearmongering(If you've been around long enough, you may remember a piece by the "Arctic Methane Emergency Group" written by one Malcolm Light who insisted that humanity would be extinct by mid-century. Do realize, by the way, that no climate scientist worth his salt, with only a very select few exceptions, has ever made this kind of claim.). As I and others have said many times before, this kind of thing simply is NOT constructive and in fact, is turning people off.

Again, thanks.

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Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #4)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 09:33 PM

24. A mea culpa is still needed if we want to make any progress. It's bad enough as is.

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Response to SleeplessinSoCal (Reply #24)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 09:44 PM

25. That, I can agree with.

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Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #4)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 01:49 PM

35. You don't know the variables, dude.

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Response to Fantastic Anarchist (Reply #35)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 03:12 PM

36. I've read into PLENTY of research on this, F.A.

And NO plausible scenario takes us higher than 6-7*C by 2100(and yes, with feedbacks) and if the IPCC's latest report is anything to go on, THOSE might need to be revised, possibly.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:11 PM

6. Another viewpont to weigh in...

 

'The Next Ice Age - An Introduction to a Possible Shift Soon'

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Response to Fedaykin (Reply #6)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:37 PM

11. Hrm...

Even if this is all true, it would just delay the inevitible.

I say we create a nuclear winter to offset the greenhouse effect.

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Response to neffernin (Reply #11)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:39 PM

13. That's an old Dan Quayle joke!

So we've been aware of the dangers of climate change for 25 years now. Progress just seems to keep on eluding us.

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Response to Bucky (Reply #13)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:48 PM

15. Then I suppose I've become a republican

as I've been reduced to repeating news from untrustworthy sources..bam! lol

It is very sad. Even in my early teens it was quite apparent that we are headed towards destruction one way or another. Even if it isn't full destruction and a handful survives and manages to rebuild, that group will lead us to destruction. Without humanities self-awareness the planet had managed to build itself a nice stable eco-system where everything lived and died according to surroundings without overly destroying things. Yes, sometimes some animals or organisms managed to do some damage but such damage heals in the blink of an eye. The damage we are creating is in some ways irreversible and over time WILL be completely destructive.

When you look at things in that light, it is really hard to get excited about much isn't it? @#$#$@, my team didn't make the playoffs. Oh well, humanity won't be there to care in 100 years.

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Response to Fedaykin (Reply #6)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:52 PM

16. Interesting video, IMHO.

TBH, this idea of a possible Ice Age coming after AGW doesn't seem all that likely to me at this moment, TBH.....but, and this is a big BUT.....I don't think it can be really ruled out, either. We don't know for sure how else the atmosphere may react in the future, particularly once the ice caps start disappearing, with possibly the only really obvious exception being that we're not going to see "runaway" warming as some have erroneously claimed in the past.

Thanks for posting this video, btw, and in fact, I may even repost it to the V & M section of the site.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:31 PM

8. It won't mean the end of the human race.

Hundreds of thousands will be able to survive in the habitable bands around the Arctic Circle, plus tens of thousands more will be able to eke out a life among the Tierra del Fuego peaks that aren't covered by the ocean.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:34 PM

9. Here's another view from the right

A little energy (coal for electricity in Ohio) co-op mag gets published 1/mos, Country Living, & the pres & ceo, Anthony Ahern, comments on something written by the editors of MIT Technology Review in the Feb issue. The gentlemen at MIT have argued that the president must address CO2 emissions, that renewables are not ready to compete with fossils, that "immediate spending and economic sacrifice by present-day voters" must be advocated by Obama, and that these emissions must begin to decline by 2017 or it will be too late.

Our good coal man Ahern, the head of the co-op replies that all we can do about the problem is R&D. But it gets better, "... the plea for elevating climate change to the pinnacle of societal issues suggests blindness to the human condition. The editors (MIT) put little value on how hundreds of millions of people were lifted out of poverty through the past use of fossil fuels, and the additional millions of people worldwide who will see their quality of life change, thanks to the availability of reliable and affordable energy from coal, oil and natural gas."

In other words, there is no problem. We will just keep doing this because in the past it's lifted people out of poverty.
The cream of the country brain crop - deep do do. I already wrote these dicks once when they ran a nasty Hillary joke. Told them I had some Dubya humor on hand if they wanted to print it. They didn't respond.

So I wrote Mr. Ahern, and told him he was quite possibly not as bright as the souls over at MIT, in nice language.

Just unbelievable. Quit being so blind to the human condition just would ya?

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:52 PM

17. It's going to take a mea culpa from the Koch Bros and others to beging to slow things down.

We've all been negligent to lesser or more degrees. Obama has been undermined with great intent. Science has been undermined with great intent. And the Rapture lovers are going to feel cheated because they won't die the way they'd hoped.

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Response to SleeplessinSoCal (Reply #17)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 09:59 PM

28. K&R

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:58 PM

18. Ugh. Science by blog. Upshot: let's all get hysterical!

See response 4.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 07:09 PM

19. K & R !!!


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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 08:00 PM

20. youtube: Wake Up, Freak Out – then Get a Grip

(12 minute animation)


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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 08:18 PM

22. All according to God's plan

Last edited Fri Feb 22, 2013, 08:52 PM - Edit history (1)

It was written in the Bible Revelations no? All of the Believers will be swept up to heaven. The heathen liberals such as on DU will be sent to Hell.
This is the unfortunate attitiude of tens of millions of RW Christians who actually look forward to the Rapture. With them as Republicon voters I dont think we have a chance to change anything.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 09:51 PM

26. I have suspected that there was something like this chart out there somewhere, for a while now.

... trying to explain to myself what the driver is for ALL of the DIFFERENT kinds of economic-political activity that we are seeing.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Feb 22, 2013, 10:18 PM

29. But virtually none of the rich execs that make their money by ignoring the problem will be alive.

So THEY don't have to worry.
They will keep their salary bragging rights for the rest of their lives.

It's worth it. --- isn't it?

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 01:43 AM

30. some will survive in pockets

but it will be another great extinction. Theres nothing we as just average citizens can do....

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 02:09 AM

32. marking to read later! nt

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 09:07 AM

33. Pardon my skepticism, but

Y2K was going to kill us all, then the Mayan prediction (which they never really predicted), now we have this. I have a secondary degree in environmental sciences; so I'm familiar with the concerns, but I don't think there's any benefit in being hysterical about this.

This looks like full blown hysteria to me. Yes, we have some very difficult decisions to make, and we need to be dealing with them now, but this whole Siberian methane gas thing - continuing even after we start reducing CO2 emmisions; let's just say I'm skeptical.

The problem with the way things are right now is that we have a positive feedback loop. The more CO2 we put in the atmosphere, the more greenhouse gasses we put in the atmosphere, the more global warming we have - on and on.

CO2 is heavier than air and is necessary in plant growth. Once we begin to reduce CO2 emissions; we will begin to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere. If we are really getting close to peak oil; that will happen, whether we take any action at all.

My point, though, is this: when you create a graph and a doomsday scenario with dates and predictions; the first point on that graph that does not coincide with the actual data for that date, trivializes the entire issue (now we're back to Y2K).

I'm aware that the greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere is a huge issue (I've been hearing about it since I was in high school in the 70's). I think you're helping the issue about as much as the people who were trying to make a case in the late 90's that we were getting too dependant on computers.

It's a huge issue and good solid scientific evidence is available; let's not resort to hysteria.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sat Feb 23, 2013, 01:46 PM

34. I didn't give us 50 years.

Right in par.

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