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Thu Feb 14, 2013, 03:41 PM

Do you think Robots / Computers / Artificial Intelligence will take over majority of jobs in future?

By future, i mean after next 20-30 Years...

"Baxter" - The New Burger Flipping Robot - Costs $22,000 - Lasts 6500 Hours..Current Cost - $3.40 per hour.
Source : http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.in/2013/01/meet-baxter-robot-out-to-get-your.html

Google self driving car - Though still in beta but many companies see this as future...who needs drivers ?
Source : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_car

Foxconn 1 Million Robot Army - Who even needs suicidal chinese slaves when they can have robot do the same work with less price and more efficiency
Source : http://www.theverge.com/2012/12/11/3753856/foxconn-shenzhen-factory-automation-manufacturing-US-expansion

PR2s Robot - Does House Work - Who needs maids
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Tired-of-Folding-Laundry-Buy-a-Robot-89978987.html

Roxxxy - Sex Companion Robot
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roxxxy

Kiva Systems Robot Amazon - Replaces warehousing and distribution workers
Source : www.kivasystems.com




I know that mechanical machines are here since 2 centuries and still many people are employed but machines doesn't have artificial intelligence (or human level intelligence). Future robots will have that and may have far more intelligence than few dumb humans.

For example see this :
Disney robot learns how to interact with human and play catch...also knows juggling.


Robot Learning Emotions and Interactions with human :
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9180781/Scientists_build_a_robot_that_can_learn_emotions



I know that many new jobs will be created in robotics, engineering, software, maintenance of robots, machines, tech etc...but

1) Do you think we will have the same amount of jobs created in the above fields to fill up the gab that robots, tech, artificial intelligence created by "direct job cuts" and "potential job cuts" ?

2) Do you think that all of the above jobs will be created in USA only and not in any other country ?

3) Do you think there will be a time when super-robots (robots who make robots) will replace the people who are making robots ?


Mass usage of robots in job industry is still not common due to many factors like initial investment, robot's human intelligence still need more developing but do you think that in next 20-30 years it will be achieved ?

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Reply Do you think Robots / Computers / Artificial Intelligence will take over majority of jobs in future? (Original post)
Joel thakkar Feb 2013 OP
Xipe Totec Feb 2013 #1
Journeyman Feb 2013 #2
Egalitarian Thug Feb 2013 #13
WinkyDink Feb 2013 #3
el_bryanto Feb 2013 #8
WinkyDink Feb 2013 #12
DJ13 Feb 2013 #4
Joel thakkar Feb 2013 #15
cherokeeprogressive Feb 2013 #5
Motown_Johnny Feb 2013 #6
subterranean Feb 2013 #7
JoePhilly Feb 2013 #9
Exultant Democracy Feb 2013 #10
LongTomH Feb 2013 #11
Egalitarian Thug Feb 2013 #14

Response to Joel thakkar (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 03:43 PM

1. It's not a matter of if, but when. nt

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Response to Joel thakkar (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 03:48 PM

2. Why not? Artificial intelligence seems to have taken control of the Republican Party. ..

'Cause you can't really call what they're doing true intelligence, can ya?

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Response to Journeyman (Reply #2)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 06:46 PM

13. Oh please, no AI has been that stupid in over a decade. n/t

 

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Response to Joel thakkar (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 03:49 PM

3. Jobs?

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Response to WinkyDink (Reply #3)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 04:12 PM

8. You know - like when Chairs displaced all those people who let people sit on them?

Think of how many jobs we would have if we could just get rid of those damn chairs.

Bryant

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Response to el_bryanto (Reply #8)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 06:44 PM

12. Not to mention S.E. Asia and Central America.

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Response to Joel thakkar (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 04:00 PM

4. Not the majority of jobs

At least not until the initial capital outlay is cheaper than hiring workers at a low wage.

For example it wouldnt make good business sense to replace a $10 per hour maid with a cleaning bot that costs $100k and uses proprietary parts with high replacement costs.

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Response to DJ13 (Reply #4)

Fri Feb 15, 2013, 12:43 AM

15. That's Why jobs are still available...

I think a time will come when a cleaning bot will cost $10k (or even less) instead of $100k and bot will be at par or even more efficient than human.

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Response to Joel thakkar (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 04:02 PM

5. Yyyyyyup

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Response to Joel thakkar (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 04:08 PM

6. These predictions don't come true that often.

Flying cars. The paperless society.


There always seems to be pressures from society which impact these types of predictions which were not thought of earlier.


I will agree that this one may be different. Some of these predictions do come true. I'm just not sure if the economic incentive that we all assume is there really exists.

Even if you can get a robot to flip a burger cheaper than a human, will that replace all human cooks? I tend to doubt it. Maybe it will create some form of vending machine / lunch counter which does not now exist but I think anything more than that could be a very very long way off and it is impossible to understand the market forces which will exist at that time.


Most things that are truly revolutionary seem to spring up almost unseen. If you watch "Back to The Future" you will see that although they thought we might have flying skateboards and self adjusting clothes they did not think of the cell phone much less the smart phone.

I have read a lot of science fiction, it was (and still sorta is) my hobby for decades. Maybe that is why I am more skeptical than others. Unless we have a major decline in the population in the next couple of centuries I just don't see how we can start to include robots/androids into our population also.

Unless Governments start to produce robots/androids to augment the lives of their citizens, without a profit motive, I just don't see how any economic forces can bring this into being.

Of course, I could easily be wrong.

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Response to Joel thakkar (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 04:10 PM

7. Yes. That's their purpose.

Any human job that can be done more cheaply or efficiently by robots eventually will be done by robots.

The big question is, once robots have taken over most of the jobs, what will the humans do? People will still be needed to design and maintain the robots, but not nearly enough to offset the jobs that were lost. I can see a future where instead of robots serving people, it's the other way around.

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Response to Joel thakkar (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 04:16 PM

9. Much like improvements in farm machinery did.

You can plant an acre of land using a shovel, or using a machine.

Humans have been innovating since day one.

I don't think we'll stop.

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Response to Joel thakkar (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 04:26 PM

10. I for one welcome our new robotic overlords.

I think that mechanization will eventually replace most of what we consider labor, however this could lead to a variety of outcomes. We could build ourselves a utopia or the rich could use it as a method to reduce the majority of the population into perpetual debt slaves.

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Response to Joel thakkar (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 05:14 PM

11. I don't see this as a simple issue......

This debate has been with us since the founding of the cybernetic age. Norbert Wiener, one of the fathers of cybernetics, published a book titled: The Human Use of Human Beings. Wiener saw the potential of computers and automation to " amplify human power and release people from the repetitive drudgery of manual labor, in favor of more creative pursuits in knowledge work and the arts." He also saw the potential for harm through dehumanization and subordination of human beings to machines.

An article on AlterNet dealt with this: Obsolete Humans? Why Elites Want You to Fear the Robot.

When economic times are good, machines are celebrated as wonders of progress and prosperity that will improve our lives. But when times are tough, they become objects of fear. The unemployment crisis of the past four years was triggered by a Wall Street-driven financial crash, and exacerbated by policy makers who failed to do enough to stimulate the economy and to ensure that there’s enough demand for goods and services. But lately, a new argument for job insecurity has made a splash in the media: It’s the machines! Pundits predict the “end of labor,” and talk about armies of sleek robots taking over the workplace as a foregone conclusion. Dystopian fantasies worthy of a late-night sci-fi flick flood the airwaves.

The author rightly points out that, it isn't robotics that's driving high unemployment:

The notion that technology is driving current unemployment doesn’t make much sense when you look at it closely. In 2007, there were reasonable, if not great, labor markets in the U.S. The giant leap in unemployment numbers dates from a very specific event, not from a long-run process that has been displacing workers over time. In 2007, the unemployment rate was 4.6. By 2009, it was 9.6, and remains very high. What happened wasn’t a sudden rush of robots onto the scene, but a financial catastrophe that nearly tanked the global economy.

The author, Lynn Paramore, has good Progressive credentials, she's a senior editor at AlterNet, and a founding editor of New Deal 2.0.

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Response to Joel thakkar (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 06:49 PM

14. Absolutely inevitable. Your time-frame may be off, but there's no question that

 

that is where we are headed, and that's only a bad thing if we don't change our concepts of economies and communities. The whole point of labor saving devices are to eliminate work that can be done or aided by the device. Where we keep going wrong is in who is reaping the benefits and who pays the price.

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