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Sat Jan 28, 2012, 12:35 PM

An example of how Real Clear Politics slants their polling "averages" to favor Republicans.

You may recall that yesterday I posted a new NBC/WSJ poll showing Democrats with a 6 point advantage in the generic congressional ballot.

However, you'll also note that the RCP "average" of recent polls shows Democrats holding just a 1.8% advantage over the Republicans in generic congressional polling. The devil, of course, is in the details. Here is their actual current polling and extrapolated average.



You may have already noticed that the NBC/WSJ poll is conspicuously absent. However, they do include a Rasmussen poll claiming that people want a Republican congress over a Democratic one by four points, the only pollster which has reported such a thing within the last six months. In addition, they make very sure to flag groups like Public Policy Polling as Democratic organizations, but don't do the same for the Republican-centric Rasmussen.

This is how Real Clear Politics slants their poll results: they deliberately exclude any poll which is too good for Democrats as an outlier, while making sure to studiously include any Republican-leaning outliers. By controlling what they DON'T include in their poll "averages," they can skew the results while still appearing completely above-board and impartial.

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Reply An example of how Real Clear Politics slants their polling "averages" to favor Republicans. (Original post)
TheWraith Jan 2012 OP
otohara Jan 2012 #1
Pholus Jan 2012 #2
TheWraith Jan 2012 #3
Pholus Jan 2012 #4
karynnj Jan 2012 #5
Tiggeroshii Jan 2012 #6

Response to TheWraith (Original post)

Sat Jan 28, 2012, 12:37 PM

1. They Suck, Along with Mediaite

wing-nuttery

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Response to TheWraith (Original post)

Sat Jan 28, 2012, 12:41 PM

2. Um, so they're biased because a sample of polls from 11/6-1/22 doesn't include a poll from 1/26?


Okey-dokey....

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Response to Pholus (Reply #2)

Sat Jan 28, 2012, 01:09 PM

3. The point is that they're deliberately excluding a more up to date poll.

Because it doesn't jibe with the narrative that they're trying to sell.

They have a very, very long history of doing exactly this.

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Response to TheWraith (Reply #3)

Sat Jan 28, 2012, 11:07 PM

4. In examining your claim you need one more bit of proof. It's small.


RCP plainly states they computed the average on 1/22. Your poll was
released on 1/26. A quick google news search (completely noncomprehensive)
shows a reference to the RCP result in media sources AT LEAST 24 hours before
your poll was even released.

http://www.bnd.com/2012/01/25/2031076/editorials-on-obamas-state-of.html

Now you can still support your case -- it just requires evidence of a working time machine. I'll wait.

I'm certainly not debating your premise, but logically you have a major flaw with the evidence you're presenting.

Why not see if you can come up with something more convincing.

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Response to TheWraith (Original post)

Sun Jan 29, 2012, 01:47 AM

5. That may be just a mistake

If you look at the Presidential approval, that study is included. I think their tables are interesting - more because they list all the polls - and they usually do. There simplistic average is not the best estimator - as you can see if you look at the Romney Vs Obama charts. Here, 2 earlier Romney polls pull down the last 4 polls that were all substantially better for Obama.

Their articles are all biased to the right. They also include a poll from August to place MA as a toss up with Brown still ahead. I hope by the next poll, it will be lean Democrat.

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Response to TheWraith (Original post)

Sun Jan 29, 2012, 05:48 AM

6. i thinkthat rcp is not making congress a priority

They update the other averages regularly-the ones that are more popular: like the matchups. Did you know obamas lead has increased over romney in the last few days? Congress gets updated more regularly oncee the election is nearer as I recollect from last year and the year before.

But that poll is definitely encourging. I hope the gap widens!

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