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Sun Jan 20, 2013, 09:02 AM

Charlie Cook: Digging Their Graves

http://nationaljournal.com/columns/cook-report/for-republicans-just-doing-the-math-is-frightening-20130117

For Republicans, Just Doing the Math is Frightening
The GOP's strength is older white voters. But to win elections, it needs to appeal to youth and minorities.
This article appeared in print as Digging Their Graves

By Charlie Cook
Updated: January 18, 2013 | 5:39 p.m.
January 17, 2013 | 3:04 p.m.


snip//

This is simply math. As long as Republicans drive minority voters away, they will not be a nationally competitive party. Sure, congressional district boundaries, as currently drawn, will most likely keep the GOP in the House majority for the duration of this decade and until the 2022 election, the first after the next census. But Republicans had better pray that the 2020 gubernatorial and state legislative elections go their way and they can get another favorable remapping; otherwise, their situation in the House could change markedly as well.

But the GOP’s problems aren’t just about race and ethnicity. While Republicans still do better than Democrats among voters 40 and older, particularly those over 65, they are losing to Democrats among voters in their 30s—and losing badly among those under 30. As someone who just turned 59, I can make this next provocative statement: Democrats are doing better among voters who can be considered the future. Republicans are doing well among those who could be described as the pre-dead.

As those voters whose political identities were strongly influenced by the success of Ronald Reagan’s presidency and the less-than-successful tenure of Jimmy Carter begin to lose their share of the electorate, and those whose political identities were formed during less auspicious times for the GOP increase their share, the future looks troubling for the Republican Party.

Next, look at gender politics. You could once suggest a half-empty, half-full assessment of the political gender gap. Yes, Republicans have a problem with female voters, but Democrats also have a problem with male voters. Keep in mind, though, that female voters outnumber males and that women live longer. In the past two presidential elections, 53 percent of the electorate was female. But worse for Republicans, the vote wasn’t symmetrical. Romney and congressional Republicans won the male vote by 7 and 8 percentage points, respectively; Obama and Democrats won the larger women’s vote by 11 points. That’s a losing equation for the GOP.

For now, the friendly enclaves afforded them by those who drew the congressional districts protect a majority of House Republicans. GOP gubernatorial candidates and other statewide political hopefuls also have some shelter because nonfederal races tend to be fought in a slightly less ideologically driven context, and are less affected by politics out of state and in Washington. But for Republicans who want their party to do more than simply hold a majority of the House—particularly those who hope to gain more than just one-third of the governing responsibility—the GOP needs to stop digging holes and start filling some in.

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Reply Charlie Cook: Digging Their Graves (Original post)
babylonsister Jan 2013 OP
GoCubsGo Jan 2013 #1
djean111 Jan 2013 #2
still_one Jan 2013 #3
1-Old-Man Jan 2013 #4

Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sun Jan 20, 2013, 09:05 AM

1. Let them keep digging.

In fact, give them a warehouse worth of shovels. The sooner they're gone, the better off this country will be.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sun Jan 20, 2013, 09:25 AM

2. Sadly, I don't think they will get to the correct depth for a casket until they have

inflicted mass gerrymandering and electoral votes manipulation onto the rest of us.
Hopefully someone is thinking of how to stomp on this quite unconstitutional shit before they can teabag it into play.
Perhaps the DOJ could concentrate on this, instead of spending time patting bankers on the back and demonizing the lesser fry.

The GOP is not trying to get more votes, they are aiming to make their lesser totals count more than the majority.
Everything else they are doing is just delaying tactics in order to keep their base alert and howling until the next elections.
That is how it seems to me.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sun Jan 20, 2013, 09:29 AM

3. That is why the repukes are looking to change state laws regarding electoral votes. I certainly

hope the Democrats are fighting against this.

The fact is voting for President should be by popular vote.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sun Jan 20, 2013, 11:50 AM

4. It is not very comforting to know that our next fair election is 9 years away.

Gerrymandering got us and anyone with eyes to see and a sense of time had to see it coming.

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