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Thu Jan 17, 2013, 02:06 PM

 

90% stock market crash highly likely this year

Well, if you believe Newsmax that is. I clicked a link and didn't realize what site I was on. It wasn't Newsmax but they posted a Newsmax article.

At long last, don't these knuckleheads at least realize that lying didn't work for them in 2012? (I'll post the article for laughs but won't give them hits by providing a link.)

Controversial Interview Exposes 5 Signs Stocks Will Collapse in 2013

By Newsmax Wires
Jan 16, 2012

“After putting $803,436 in Obama’s re-election campaign, a media giant attempted to keep Americans from seeing the video by banning it from their sites,” stated Aaron DeHoog, the financial publisher who is unapologetic for the release of controversial footage that has gained international attention.

The video DeHoog is referring to is a stunning interview with famed economist Robert Wiedemer, author of the New York Times best-selling book Aftershock.

Wiedemer, best known for correctly predicting the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States during the “Great Recession”, provides disturbing evidence in the video interview for 50 percent unemployment, a 90 percent stock market crash, and 100 percent annual inflation . . . starting as soon as 2013.

When the host of the interview expressed disbelief in Wiedemer’s claims, he calmly displayed five indisputable charts to back up his predictions.

40 replies, 9211 views

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Arrow 40 replies Author Time Post
Reply 90% stock market crash highly likely this year (Original post)
UnrepentantLiberal Jan 2013 OP
Politicalboi Jan 2013 #1
1StrongBlackMan Jan 2013 #2
UnrepentantLiberal Jan 2013 #6
upaloopa Jan 2013 #3
1StrongBlackMan Jan 2013 #9
tama Jan 2013 #14
MrYikes Jan 2013 #4
Taverner Jan 2013 #5
former9thward Jan 2013 #15
KharmaTrain Jan 2013 #17
former9thward Jan 2013 #19
quaker bill Jan 2013 #20
former9thward Jan 2013 #22
quaker bill Jan 2013 #29
Art_from_Ark Jan 2013 #31
quaker bill Jan 2013 #34
sendero Jan 2013 #36
Art_from_Ark Jan 2013 #40
onethatcares Jan 2013 #24
former9thward Jan 2013 #25
Art_from_Ark Jan 2013 #32
sendero Jan 2013 #37
quaker bill Jan 2013 #39
Sekhmets Daughter Jan 2013 #28
Make7 Jan 2013 #7
Bigmack Jan 2013 #8
JHB Jan 2013 #10
wtmusic Jan 2013 #11
dmallind Jan 2013 #12
tama Jan 2013 #13
JoePhilly Jan 2013 #16
muriel_volestrangler Jan 2013 #18
quaker bill Jan 2013 #21
Recursion Jan 2013 #23
NoOneMan Jan 2013 #26
Sekhmets Daughter Jan 2013 #27
greytdemocrat Jan 2013 #30
spanone Jan 2013 #33
SoCalDem Jan 2013 #35
sendero Jan 2013 #38

Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 02:13 PM

1. Good thing we will be

Fully armed just in case.

This is what the cowards are waiting for. If something like this happened, the US would be a disaster area, and they would be marching in the streets with their assault paranoia.

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 02:15 PM

2. You mean the same Robert Wiedemer ...

that has made millions writing books and advising that his clientele short ... well ... the world?

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/09/02/aftershock-finding-fortune-in-marketing-doom/

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #2)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 02:46 PM

6. Lots of RW suckers for those con men to feast on.

 

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 02:25 PM

3. Hell just about everyone on DU predicted the collapse

Of the housing market.

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Response to upaloopa (Reply #3)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 02:50 PM

9. In 2004 ...

I worked on the side lines of the housing industry (investigating housing discrimination claims). This gave me an in-depth view of the mortgage lending industry. It became clear to me that the housing market with poised to implode ... I just didn't have the money to short the market.

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Response to upaloopa (Reply #3)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 03:45 PM

14. Well,

 

at least those participating and following the daily stockmarket watch thread. There's also fair share of Pollyannas on DU, and naturally much more so when POTUS is D.

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 02:43 PM

4. So that I can stock up on milk,

what day will this happen?

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 02:45 PM

5. GOLD! BUY GOLD!!! GOOOOOLD!!!!!

 

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Response to Taverner (Reply #5)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 04:40 PM

15. Anyone is who has been buying it over the last 12 years is well ahead.

But go ahead and get that 0.2% in your savings account.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #15)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 04:47 PM

17. Not If You've Been Snookered Over The Past 4 Years...

I have a couple Krugraands that my parents bought in the 70s...yep, one hell of an investment now ($35 an ounce then)...even buying 10 years ago when it hovered around $250-300 an ounce looks good these days, but there was a cottage industry that blossomed during the financial collapse...after the price of gold soared upwards of $900 an oz. That's the one scam artists like this one and Dreck are playing to. "Cash 4 Gold" places are all over the place and have become a combination pawnbroker and payday lender...all predicated on the economy collapsing and only gold being legal tender. More preying on the paranoid...

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Response to KharmaTrain (Reply #17)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 06:21 PM

19. Gold has gone up every year for the last 12.

So you are incorrect. If you bought in 2008 you are ahead, same as 2009, 2010, 2011. I am talking about gold bullion or the stock equivalent such as GLD. I know nothing about the 'cash for gold' outfits. I have no idea about the margins they charge or any of their business practices. There are plenty of places to get gold other than those places.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #19)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 06:35 PM

20. Gold is quite inflated

I don't imagine that you will believe me, just remember I told you when the price corrects. I think the floor is somewhere near $800 to $900 per ozt. It could oversell for a bit and dip briefly lower. As a jeweler I know it is hard to make a gold bubble, but we have one. The moment folks realize the economy will recover and the currencies have not collapsed there will be alot of selling.

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Response to quaker bill (Reply #20)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 06:53 PM

22. I agree nothing goes up forever.

And I don't advocate that gold is the only asset you own. Mine is about 5% of my liquid assets. And I keep a strict discipline of selling a stock or asset if it dips below 90% of where I bought it. So even if it "corrects" it won't hurt me.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #22)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 10:01 PM

29. I buy low, alloy to Karat,

make jewelry of it and sell. My mark up over the cost of materials means profits are consistent.

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Response to quaker bill (Reply #20)

Fri Jan 18, 2013, 02:44 AM

31. As someone who has followed the gold market since 1968,

I seriously doubt the price will go back down to $800-900/ounce. It is not the small-time American investor who runs this market-- it is the large institutional investors, and central banks, as well as nouveau riche in many different countries whose local currencies are either not particularly stable or not particularly trustworthy. Adding some stability to the gold market are the limitations placed on annual gold sales by European central banks, which had been openly manipulating the gold market before the introduction of the euro.

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Response to Art_from_Ark (Reply #31)

Fri Jan 18, 2013, 05:40 AM

34. The question I think

relates more to the speculative value of the dollar in the PM market. I think the dollar denominated price delinked from market fundamentals quite a few years ago. While there is some increased demand from a world economy in which there are growing middle classes in China and India, this is not sufficient alone to explain the increase in the dollar denominated price. Decline in the real value of the dollar explains a bit of the recent increase as well. However these factors are not sufficient to explain the near tripling of the dollar denominated price for gold and 500% increase for silver. Market fundamentals do increase the price for both over the last decade or so just not this much this fast.

Home prices have increased more or less naturally over time, and historically those prices moved with a fairly modest and almost predictable rate. PMs were a stodgy commodity that few invested in because while you could make money going long, the gains were perhaps a little better than inflation, but not much. In most time periods, a certificate of deposit at a bank paid a somewhat better return than the equivalent investment in PMs.

Home prices and PM prices both took off like a rockets roughly at the same moment in history. The change in price was similar in pace and magnitude until home prices corrected. This was the moment when delinking of the PM market from fundamentals went to completion. The PM market has since been speculated up on "austerity" movement fears of a currency collapse and hyperinflation. These things have not and will not materialize within the timeframes for this speculative play.

What will happen instead is that currency will be stable, inflation will be low (higher than it is now, but still low) economies will grow and unemployment will decline. At some point the speculative buyers will realize that the big bonanza they were expecting is not coming, and that they can sit on the hoard of physical metal or futures and watch them spin in place or decline in value. At this point, they will go elsewhere and we will have the overdue correction. The market has tried to go there a few times recently, but big buyers have stepped in to stop the action. Like 1929 or 2008, the pockets of the big buyers are only so deep, at some point they will fail the test of the bottom and cease offering resistance. At that point the big buyers become big sellers and we will find where the floor truly is.

I think the "dead cat bounce" floor for silver is around $12 and gold at 50:1 +/- $600, perhaps a bit higher due the changes in fundamentals, so on the optimisic side Au at $800 to $900, during the peak of the coming correction. Since I use the materials in production, I will be buying into the trough before the bottom.

One of us is more correct than the other, time will tell who it is.



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Response to quaker bill (Reply #20)

Fri Jan 18, 2013, 06:02 AM

36. It might...

... but as long as we are racking up more deficit spending I doubt it.

Those who think gold/silver are just in bubbles aren't paying attention, there is a reason. If you keep debasing your currency, people get reluctant to hold thier wealth in it. And they have to go somewhere. The dollar is crap, but the euro and the yen are even worse. They have to go somewhere.

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Response to sendero (Reply #36)

Fri Jan 18, 2013, 07:54 AM

40. I agree

I have personally experienced how much spending power the dollar has lost since the 1960s, and it is not funny. As you have noted, "If you keep debasing your currency, people get reluctant to hold their wealth in it." The US dollar has been continuously debased since the 1960s. I don't see this trend ending anytime soon.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #19)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 07:12 PM

24. question about gold

do you really think we'll have to go to the local wallyworld and break off a piece of a coin in order to buy some junk shit or groceries?

Or are we going to trade actual gold metal for fiat money?

I'm not making fun or trying to ask a dumb bass question, I'm just kinda confused.

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Response to onethatcares (Reply #24)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 07:33 PM

25. To answer that I am assuming we are in a relatively normal economy.

Not a basket case economy like post WW I Germany. If you buy gold in a coinage form or bullion when you want to sell it you would get 'normal' paper money for it. If it has gone up in value you will have more money than what you paid for it. (The value of gold actually never goes up. It is the value of the dollar which gold is measured in goes down. This causes the dollar value of gold to go up). Or if you want you can buy the stock equivalent of gold which is ticker symbol GLD or IAU or others. These go up or down based on the daily price of gold. You can buy them like stocks and sell them like stocks.

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Response to onethatcares (Reply #24)

Fri Jan 18, 2013, 02:51 AM

32. If it ever comes to that type of situation,

and assuming that there is not a return to the Gold Standard (which is highly unlikely), the most likely scenario would be what it is now, that is, that you would sell your gold to a dealer for fiat money at whatever rate was in effect at the time.

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Response to onethatcares (Reply #24)

Fri Jan 18, 2013, 06:04 AM

37. Not likely..

..... what is somewhat more likely would be me trading an ounce of silver for 200 "dollars". Then I would buy crap with the "dollars".

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Response to onethatcares (Reply #24)

Fri Jan 18, 2013, 07:20 AM

39. No

It will not come to that. Exchange of value will become increasingly digital. The spanish used to use gold chain for this, as it was easier to bust up into small segments. But we will never go that way. If we did, cashiers would need a test kit to tell one karat weight from another and assure the stuff they were getting was not flash plated brass.

The stuff is too easy to fake to be used at the cashier line at wallyworld. There isn't enough time to run the tests and it would require beyond minimum wage level staff to prevent fraud.

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Response to KharmaTrain (Reply #17)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 07:39 PM

28. People who had lost their jobs appreciated having some place to sell their gold jewelry. n/t

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 02:47 PM

7. You're gonna feel pretty silly when this actually happens...

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 02:50 PM

8. Wait!.... it's a safe bet the market WILL crash. It always does. When is the only question. nt

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 02:58 PM

10. Pat Robertson predicted a collapse would happen in 1993, and his charts are from God...

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 03:04 PM

11. One of the best indicators to run out and BUY stock.

Good news.

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 03:36 PM

12. Kunstler and this guy must be competing for Doomer King status

It's hardly only a RW foible as a perusal of our resident annually renewed vermin stew prognostications will show.

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 03:40 PM

13. Trade deficit, PO and energy prices

 

Petroleum Imports Drive the Trade Deficit:

America's dependence on foreign oil drives the trade deficit. In 2011, the U.S. imported $332 billion in petroleum-related products, compared to $252 billion in 2010. The number of barrels imported was slightly lower, but oil prices jumped from an average of $99.78/barrel to $74.67/barrel. Petroleum-related products include crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil and other petroleum-based distillates such as kerosene. (Source: U.S. Census, U.S. Oil Imports)

http://useconomy.about.com/od/tradepolicy/p/Trade_Deficit.htm

If oil was still around 20 buck a barrel it was a decade ago, the energy import deficit would be "only" $60 billion - but of course the imports would not have been declining as they have since 2008 without the multiplication of prices.

Of course this is not just US problem, but global issue - it's hardly coincidence that the PIIGS countries of Eurozone are those that are most dependent from imported fossil fuels.

A platinum coin with astronomical sum printed on it would certainly help to show how ridiculous the whole financial system is, but it does not solve the trade deficit and energy problem.

And nor does goldbug advice of Wiedemars etc. of how to "make money" from collapsing financial system, when the underlying real economy cause of growing and collapsing bubbles is energy crisis. Current form of food production is totally dependent from fossil fuels and you can't eat gold or other metals anymore than paper and bits.

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 04:42 PM

16. Which means it will double in the next 4 years.

The crazy far right predicted a DOW of 2000 if Obama won in 2008.

They only missed by a little bit.

I hope they sold at 6500.

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 06:02 PM

18. Wiedemer orginally said "starting before 2013"; I guess that didn't work out

It's on this site, dated "Sunday, 05 Aug 2012", confidently predicting "this video will get Obama fired". So, since he was re-elected, and the predictions of doom haven't turned up yet, Mr. Prognosticator has had to switch to a rolling deadline ...

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/obama-video-wiedemer-unemployment/2012/08/08/id/447989

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 06:39 PM

21. The market will not crash

It will grow. Unemployment will decline. Currencies will be roughly stable. Home values will increase. Precious metals will drop like a stone on the news.

You heard it here first.

There will still be plenty of problems, but a market collapse will not be one of them.

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 06:56 PM

23. Funny how these are always convenient base 10 numbers

Cool story, bro

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 07:35 PM

26. No, my bible told me America is forever

 

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 07:37 PM

27. This is part of an investment pitch...

If you follow through to the end, you'll be offered a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make millions getting out ahead of the collapse.

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Thu Jan 17, 2013, 10:17 PM

30. Buy Twinkies!!!!




Better than Gold!!! You can eat them and they last forever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Fri Jan 18, 2013, 03:14 AM

33. been hearing this sine Obama took office....yawn

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Fri Jan 18, 2013, 05:50 AM

35. In the whole history of "the market", it first went above 1000 in 1972


http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/11/14/dow-1000-and-wall-streets-watergate.aspx
Dow 1,000 and Wall Street's Watergate

By Alex Planes | More Articles
November 14, 2012 | Comments (0)

On this day in economic and financial history...

On its very first day in existence in 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEX: ^DJI ) closed at 41 points. It had 12 components then, representing the pillars of the American economy: sugar, tobacco, rubber, leather, gas, lead, cattle feed, railroads, and electricity. It would take 76 years for the index to reach a four-digit closing price, which was finally achieved on Nov. 14, 1972.

"The long-sought goal of 1,000 on a closing basis carries a mystique all its own," wrote The New York Times when the Dow reached its milestone. "Brokers have hailed it as 'magical' and 'romantic,' ever hopeful of a favorable impact on investment sentiment once the mark was shattered."

Many of the Dow's three-digit milestones were also a long time coming after its founding, in no small part due to the horrific declines seen during the Great Depression. The index hit 100 points in 1906, 300 points in 1928, 500 in 1956, 700 in 1961, and 900 in 1965, according to the Times. The grueling climb to 1,000 was cut short by two bear markets in the latter half of the 1960s, which snatched victory from the jaws of a Dow that peaked at 995 points early in 1966.

Several bad choices hurt the Dow on its climb to 1,000. A four-decade exclusion of IBM (NYSE: IBM ) suppressed the Dow's growth significantly, as the company posted a staggering 22,000% return over the course of its non-index years, from 1939 to 1979. IBM's stock even tried to upstage the Dow on its milestone day, climbing 3% on strong forward guidance as the Dow eked out a modest half-percent gain. The Dow's inclusion of Anaconda Copper in 1959 is also perplexing, as copper mining suffered long-term weakness throughout the first half of the century (excepting the World War II period). Anaconda's flagship mine in Chile was confiscated by the Chilean Socialist government in 1971, and the company's stock lost 72% of its value from 1969 to mid-1972. Anaconda sold itself to an oil company less than five years later, and today it exists only as an environmental liability for BP (NYSE: BP ) , which acquired its acquirer.

snip

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Response to UnrepentantLiberal (Original post)

Fri Jan 18, 2013, 06:08 AM

38. I doubt there will be a crash like that..

... but do understand that the ONLY reason the stock market has done so well the last several years is because the Fed has been pumping money into the economy with both fists. This really cannot go on forever and when it does stop the stock market will return to reflecting the performance and prospects of businesses and the economy.

Also, IMHO, because the stock market is artificially propped up with injected liquidity, it is much more vulnerable to flash-crashes caused by nominally bad events. Take the debt ceiling nonsense. If the pukes actually cut off their noses by letting that expire it WILL have a drastic effect on the markets (not 90% but big).

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