3. That's what I worry about... Regression to the mean!
I got my driveway (>100 ft) plowed three times last winter which was tiny as things normally go here in very rural west Michigan. This year, almost no snow -- only an inch at a time, if that. Last week it hit mid-fifties. No plowing yet. No below zero temps or anything like it (most unusual!).
It is supposed to get very cold early next week. I suspect that we may hit negatives at night. But when it is that cold, there will be no snow.
It's very, very dry here. Lakes are down significantly. I mean real lakes. They don't call MI the Great Lake state for nothing. Plus, I am becoming increasingly worried about my well. If the aquifer goes dry, I won't have potable water.