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Wed Jan 16, 2013, 10:25 AM

Australia bans assault weapons; mass shootings fall to...zero.

"Australia’s 1996 gun law reforms: faster falls in firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and a decade without mass shootings

Background: After a 1996 firearm massacre in Tasmania in which 35 people died, Australian governments united to remove semi-automatic and pump-action shotguns and rifles from civilian possession, as a key component of gun law reforms.

Objective: To determine whether Australia’s 1996 major gun law reforms were associated with changes in rates of mass firearm homicides, total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides, and whether there were any apparent method substitution effects for total homicides and suicides.

Design: Observational study using official statistics. Negative binomial regression analysis of changes in firearm death rates and comparison of trends in pre–post gun law reform firearm-related mass killings. Setting: Australia, 1979–2003.

Main outcome measures: Changes in trends of total firearm death rates, mass fatal shooting incidents, rates of firearm homicide, suicide and unintentional firearm deaths, and of total homicides and suicides per 100 000 population.

Results: In the 18 years before the gun law reforms, there were 13 mass shootings in Australia, and none in the 10.5 years afterwards. Declines in firearm-related deaths before the law reforms accelerated after the reforms for total firearm deaths (p = 0.04), firearm suicides (p = 0.007) and firearm homicides (p = 0.15), but not for the smallest category of unintentional firearm deaths, which increased. No evidence of substitution effect for suicides or homicides was observed. The rates per 100 000 of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides all at least doubled their existing rates of decline after the revised gun laws. Conclusions: Australia’s 1996 gun law reforms were followed by more than a decade free of fatal mass shootings, and accelerated declines in firearm deaths, particularly suicides. Total homicide rates followed the same pattern. Removing large numbers of rapid-firing firearms from civilians may be an effective way of reducing mass shootings, firearm homicides and firearm suicides."

http://jeffsachs.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Australia-Gun-Law-Reforms.pdf

How much more evidence do we need? Ban assault weapons, ban high-cap clips, do it NOW.

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Arrow 33 replies Author Time Post
Reply Australia bans assault weapons; mass shootings fall to...zero. (Original post)
wtmusic Jan 2013 OP
Recursion Jan 2013 #1
wtmusic Jan 2013 #2
Recursion Jan 2013 #3
wtmusic Jan 2013 #5
Recursion Jan 2013 #6
wtmusic Jan 2013 #7
d_r Jan 2013 #4
dmallind Jan 2013 #8
wtmusic Jan 2013 #9
dmallind Jan 2013 #10
wtmusic Jan 2013 #11
dmallind Jan 2013 #12
wtmusic Jan 2013 #13
Recursion Jan 2013 #15
wtmusic Jan 2013 #19
Evelyn W Apr 2013 #32
OneTenthofOnePercent Jan 2013 #14
wtmusic Jan 2013 #16
Recursion Jan 2013 #17
OneTenthofOnePercent Jan 2013 #20
wtmusic Jan 2013 #21
OneTenthofOnePercent Jan 2013 #22
wtmusic Jan 2013 #23
OneTenthofOnePercent Jan 2013 #24
wtmusic Jan 2013 #25
krispos42 Jan 2013 #28
Jefferson23 Jan 2013 #18
sanatanadharma Jan 2013 #26
krispos42 Jan 2013 #27
HiPointDem Jan 2013 #29
wtmusic Jan 2013 #30
HiPointDem Jan 2013 #31
Name removed Feb 2014 #33

Response to wtmusic (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 10:28 AM

1. Australia banned semi-automatics. I can't stress enough that this is not what the AWB does.

I don't know how our party got so invested in a law that it's so completely factually wrong about. The assault weapons ban does not ban semi-automatic weapons like Australia did. It regulates what they can look like.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 10:30 AM

2. Thanks for info...it should be even stricter then. nt

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #2)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 10:34 AM

3. It's not really a question of "stricter"; it's a whole different kind of law

It's not like the AWB "doesn't go far enough"; it doesn't even go in the same direction as banning semi-automatics. Under Feinstein's proposed new AWB, the gunmaker would have to change the grip shape of the AR-15 and call it by a different name. There's a lot of extreme right-wing "never touch my guns" resistance to it, but also a lot of moderates who don't see why the shape of a semi-automatic rifle matters if people can still buy a semi-automatic. (I have my own idiosyncratic issues with it, particularly with the banning of pistol grips, since they're safer than traditional grips.)

Banning semi-automatics is not my preferred solution, personally, but it at least does what we're trying to accomplish with an AWB and maybe if we came out with that it would scare the GOP into concessions on things like universal background checks and magazine capacity.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 10:44 AM

5. Pistol grips make it easier to aim without sighting

That's why they're used on full-auto military weapons. But I agree it's largely a conceptual, semantic, and ineffective fix.

I would support a ban on semi-autos 100%.

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 10:49 AM

6. I'm not sure I agree with that; they enforce proper shooting positions from the shoulder

and make hip-firing essentially impossible.

But what's more important (to me at least) is that they greatly reduce the number of drops.

I would support a ban on semi-autos 100%

I could live with rescheduling them as Title II Class 3 weapons, like machine guns. Either semi-autos in general or semi-autos that accept detachable magazines (the latter is more likely to pass). Particularly if we allowed a streamlined "mini FFL" process for people who want to keep but not resell them.

There's still the problem that this is about 2/3rds of the guns currently owned, and basically every gun sold over the past two decades, but there are ways to deal with that; even 50% compliance would be a good thing.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #6)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 10:53 AM

7. Agree. Yours is a realistic and achievable goal. nt

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Response to wtmusic (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 10:44 AM

4. since when does alpha = .15?

and what happened 18 years before that they compared 10.5 years to 18?

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Response to wtmusic (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 11:03 AM

8. ....and the fall in homicide rates was huge too.

Current Australian homicide rates have fallen 44% from the year before their almost total gun ban. Well done!

Meanwhile the US with tens of millions more guns and a massive shift towards legal carrying in public? Homicide rates have fallen 41% in the same time. Ermmm...damn you for failing so miserably I guess.

Murder victims die just the same regardlss of collocation with others.

http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/crime/Homicide_statistics2012.xls

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Response to dmallind (Reply #8)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 11:15 AM

9. Ho-hum. When all else fails, read the report.

"After the introduction of gun laws, a significant downward trend was evident in total homicides, and the ratio of pre-law to post-law trends differed statistically from ‘‘no effect’’ (p = 0.01, table 3). We conclude that the data do not support any homicide method substitution hypothesis."

Guns are the favored method for killing people, period. There's a reason.

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #9)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 12:17 PM

10. So why did the US rate go down by a very similar amount? You saw that report, right?

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Response to dmallind (Reply #10)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 02:39 PM

11. There's a report that school shootings went down?

I haven't seen that one.

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #11)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 02:40 PM

12. Learn to read and not change the subject. Do only school shootings count as murders?

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Response to dmallind (Reply #12)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 02:42 PM

13. Homicides went down more in Australia; suicides down sharply

Mass shootings = 0.

Speaking of reading, have you even cracked the source in OP?

Didn't think so.

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #13)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 02:51 PM

15. Australia did have a mass shooting since the ban ended, plus a mass-murder arson

There was a mass shooting at Monash University in the last decade, and a mass murder by fire of 15 backpackers in a hostel. So the number is not zero.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #15)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 03:21 PM

19. Since there's absolutely nothing which is socially-redeeming about semi-auto weapons

I would favor a ban if it saved one life.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #15)

Fri Apr 19, 2013, 04:31 AM

32. Yes... But

Two people dead is not a 'mass shooting'. And what does a fire have to do with gun laws?

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Response to wtmusic (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 02:47 PM

14. Our proposed AWB is absolutely NOT what austrailia did.

 

They pretty much outlawed everything semiauto.

Assault weapons are a very small portion of american gun crime. Semiautos are a very big portion.
Therein lies the difference of the effeciveness of what austrailia did versus the impotence any proposed US AWB.

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Response to OneTenthofOnePercent (Reply #14)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 02:55 PM

16. Agree. We should do what they did. nt

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #16)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 02:56 PM

17. That would be worth a try. Though interestingly, the AU gun ownership rate is higher today

than it was before they banned semi-autos. I'm not sure what to make of that.

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #16)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 03:22 PM

20. I'm pretty sure that will never happen.

 

Something like that would either require a strict reinterpretation of the 2nd Amendment (only constitutional-era technology is covered) or the actual repeal of the 2nd amendment. I believe the former action would be foolish to pursue (do you want constitutional-era only precedent applied to the rest of your rights?) and the latter action is simply not possible (too many red states to repeal).

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Response to OneTenthofOnePercent (Reply #20)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 03:23 PM

21. One month ago, you could have said the same about today's Executive Orders.

Circumstances change things.

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #21)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 03:30 PM

22. Obama could have issued these executive orders almost 4 years if he wanted.

 

Nothing stood in his way then, one month ago, or today. Nor are any of those orders constitutionally questionable. There's quite a few of legal hurdles to simply ban semiautomatic guns - and those hurdles aren't going away anytime soon. The circumstances that need to change deal with the constitution which, thankfully, requires quite a bit of effort and/or a great majority of public approval to change.

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Response to OneTenthofOnePercent (Reply #22)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 04:06 PM

23. How are those legal hurdles any different than banning rocket launchers? nt

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #23)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 04:12 PM

24. Apples to oranges.

 

Apples are fruit; oranges are fruit. Likewise, semiauto guns are legal for civilians to own; rocket launchers are legal to own. (Yes, it's not uncommon to find veitnam-era M72 Rocket Launchers at a gunshow)

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Response to OneTenthofOnePercent (Reply #24)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 04:21 PM

25. Whatever. Shoulder-fired SAMs are not.

Take your pick. There's no legal distinction about what consitutes a dangerous "arm" and what doesn't.

It's a wholly arbitrary, non-Constitutional judgement which is nonetheless deemed valid law.

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Response to OneTenthofOnePercent (Reply #14)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 05:03 PM

28. All rifles and shotguns (manual-action and semi-automatic) account for about 8% of homicides

Handguns account for 60% of all homicides

"Other" accounts for 32% of all homicides.


Remember, that an "assault weapon" can be a rifle, shotgun, or handgun. The continued use of "assault weapon" terminology has made the whole thing very muddled.


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Response to wtmusic (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 03:14 PM

18. I hope we follow in their steps too..and then some. What I would like to know is

at the time of the mass shooting, killing 35 people..did their citizens react in any fashion
like ours has since Newtown.

Meaning, did they have any conspiracy nuts spinning the evil government meme, this
was all staged..never really happened type of reaction?


I am concerned about these responses to Newtown..they're alarming and seem to be
one reason the FBI data has 4.7 million new guns on record were sold for the year 2012.


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Response to wtmusic (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 04:38 PM

26. The Australians don't need to see signs from God... (comic)

...to understand the common sense of the commons' sense.

non sequitur comic today
http://assets.amuniversal.com/e8cd6ce03c0e01300ca9001dd8b71c47?width=900.0

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Response to wtmusic (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 04:52 PM

27. And the homicide rate remained steady.

And not only was Australia's homicide rate rather low to begin with, they also didn't have much death from firearms.


Our non-gun homicide rate is about as high as Australia's total homicide rate.

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Response to wtmusic (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 05:11 PM

29. Australia: Drive-by shootings up 41%

 

DRIVE-by shootings in NSW jumped by 41 per cent in the two years to December last year, with about half the 100 attacks occurring in three key areas in Sydney's west, new crime statistics show.

The NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) has released its latest report showing an alarming increase in drive-by attacks.

It comes as Sydney was rocked by five overnight shootings on three homes and two tattoo parlours in Sydney's west.

According to BOCSAR, there were 100 drive-by shootings in the two years to December 2011, up from 71 in the previous period.

About half of the incidents in western Sydney were recorded in three particular regions; Canterbury-Bankstown, Central Western Sydney and the Fairfield-Liverpool areas.

BOCSAR director Don Weatherburn says although the spike in shootings is a serious concern, it's well below the peak of 2002.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/drive-by-shooting-up-by-41-per-cent/story-e6frg6nf-1226329985537

Peak of 2002 = 6 years after the change in gun laws.


Over the five years, there were several peaks in drive-by shootings. The biggest peak was in January 2002, where there were about 30 shootings a month, Dr Weatherburn said.

The next peak was in July 2006, where there were about 22 shootings a month. In January 2009, there were about 24 shootings a month, and the most recent peak was in April this year, when there were about 34 shootings, Dr Weatherburn added.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/100-shootings-and-counting-merrylands-tops-driveby-list-20120911-25psc.html#ixzz2IBAlYTlX

That's in sydney alone, you understand...

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Response to HiPointDem (Reply #29)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 05:19 PM

30. Assault weapons are somewhat unwieldy to use from the window of a car, aren't they?

If your point is that handgun regulation should be tightened as well, I agree.

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Response to wtmusic (Reply #30)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 05:19 PM

31. not my point.

 

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Response to wtmusic (Original post)

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