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Tue Jan 15, 2013, 01:46 PM

Intentional homicide rate vs gun posession



Data taken from:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country

I will post the full raw data set below. Since there are clearly two arms in the plot, one should probably only compare similar countries (ones that are currently not in civil war for instance). Feel free to group according to your own taste.

If you post sub-groups of countries from the data below in this thread I can make a similar plot for that group, although I'll not do it today. I can also do a regression for your sub-group if requested.

-----------------------------------------------------

# country | guns_per_100 | homicide_per_100k

Afghanistan 4.6 2.4
Albania 8.6 4.0
Algeria 7.6 1.5
Angola 17.3 19.0
Argentina 10.2 3.4
Armenia 12.5 1.4
Australia 15 1.0
Austria 30.4 0.6
Azerbaijan 3.5 2.2
Bahamas 5.3 27.4
Bahrain 24.8 0.6
Bangladesh .5 2.7
Barbados 7.8 11.3
Belarus 7.3 4.9
Belgium 17.2 1.7
Belize 10 41.4
Benin 1.4 15.1
Bhutan 3.5 1.0
Bolivia 2.8 8.9
BosniaandHerzegovina 17.3 1.5
Botswana 4.9 14.5
Brazil 8 21.0
Brunei 1.4 0.5
Bulgaria 6.2 2.0
BurkinaFaso 1.1 18.0
Burma 4
Burundi 1.2 21.7
Cambodia 4.3 3.4
Cameroon 2.8 19.7
Canada 30.8 1.6
CapeVerde 5.4 11.6
CentralAfricanRepublic 1 29.3
Chad 1.1 15.8
Chile 10.7 3.2
China 4.9 1.0
Colombia 5.9 31
Comoros 1.8 12.2
Congo 2.7 30.8
CostaRica 9.9 10.0
Croatia 21.7 1.4
Cuba 4.8 5.0
Cyprus 36.4 1.7
CzechRepublic 16.3 1.7
DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo 1.4 21.7
Denmark 12 0.9
Djibouti 2.8 3.4
DominicanRepublic 5.1 25.0
Ecuador 1.3 15.2
Egypt 3.5 1.2
El Salvador 69.2
EnglandandWales 6.2
EquatorialGuinea 19.9 20.7
Eritrea .5 17.8
Estonia 9.2 5.2
Ethiopia .4 22.5
Fiji .5 2.8
Finland 32 2.2
France 31.2 1.1
Gabon 14 13.8
Gambia .8 10.8
Georgia 7.3 4.3
Germany 30.3 0.8
Ghana .4 15.7
Greece 22.5 1.5
Guatemala 13.1 38.5
Guinea 1.2 20.7
Guinea-Bissau 1.6 20.2
Guyana 14.6 18.6
Haiti .6 6.9
Honduras 6.2 91.6
Hungary 5.5 1.3
Iceland 30.3 0.3
India 4.2 3.4
Indonesia .5 8.1
Iran 7.3 3.0
Iraq 34.2 2.0
Ireland 8.6 1.2
Israel 7.3 2.1
Italy 11.9 0.9
IvoryCoast 2.4
Jamaica 8.1 52.2
Japan .6 0.4
Jordan 11.5 1.8
Kazakhstan 1.3 8.8
Kenya 6.4 20.1
Kuwait 24.8 2.2
Kyrgyzstan .9 20.1
Laos 1.2 4.6
Latvia 19 3.1
Lebanon 21 2.2
Lesotho 2.7 35.2
Liberia 1.6 10.1
Libya 15.5 2.9
Lithuania .7 6.6
Luxembourg 15.3 2.5
Macedonia 24.1 1.9
Madagascar .8 8.1
Malawi .7 36.0
Malaysia 1.5 2.3
Maldives 6.5 1.6
Mali 1.1 8.0
Malta 11.9 1.0
Mauritania 1.6 14.7
Mauritius 14.7 2.5
Mexico 15 22.7
Moldova 7.1 7.5
Mongolia 1.9 8.7
Montenegro 23.1 3.5
Morocco 5 1.4
Mozambique 5.1 8.8
Namibia 12.6 17.2
Nepal .8 2.8
Netherlands 3.9 1.1
NewZealand 22.6
Nicaragua 7.7 13.6
Niger .7 3.8
Nigeria 1.5 12.2
NorthernIreland 21.9
NorthKorea .6 15.2
Norway 31.3 0.6
Oman 25.5 0.7
Pakistan 11.6 7.8
Palestine 3.4 4.1
Panama 21.7 21.6
PapuaNewGuinea 1.2 13.0
Paraguay 17 11.5
Peru 18.8 10.3
Philippines 4.7 5.4
Poland 1.3 1.1
Portugal 8.5 1.2
Qatar 19.2 0.9
Romania .7 2.0
Russia 8.9 10.2
Rwanda .6 17.1
SaudiArabia 35 1.0
Scotland 5.5
Senegal 2 8.7
Serbia 58.2 1.2
Seychelles 5.4 8.3
SierraLeone .6 14.9
Singapore .5 0.3
Slovakia 8.3 1.5
Slovenia 13.5 0.7
SolomonIslands .4 3.7
Somalia 9.1 1.5
SouthAfrica 12.7 31.8
SouthKorea 1.1 2.6
Spain 10.4 0.8
Sri Lanka 3.6
Sudan 5.5 24.2
Suriname 13.4 4.6
Swaziland 6.4 12.9
Sweden 31.6 1.0
Switzerland 45.7 0.7
Syria 3.9 2.3
Taiwan 4.6 3.2
Tajikistan 1 2.1
Tanzania 1.4 24.5
Thailand 15.6 4.8
Timor-Leste .3 6.9
Togo 1 10.9
Transnistria 9.1
TrinidadandTobago 1.6 35.2
Tunisia .1 1.1
Turkey 12.5 3.3
Turkmenistan 3.8 4.2
Uganda 1.4 36.3
Ukraine 6.6 5.2
UnitedArabEmirates 22.1 0.8
UnitedStates 88.8 4.8
Uruguay 31.8 5.9
Uzbekistan 1.5 3.1
Venezuela 10.7 45.1
Vietnam 1.7 1.6
Yemen 54.8 4.2
Zambia 8.9 38.0
Zimbabwe 4.6 14.3

16 replies, 1202 views

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 16 replies Author Time Post
Reply Intentional homicide rate vs gun posession (Original post)
redgreenandblue Jan 2013 OP
NYC_SKP Jan 2013 #1
patrice Jan 2013 #3
NYC_SKP Jan 2013 #10
redgreenandblue Jan 2013 #14
samsingh Jan 2013 #4
patrice Jan 2013 #2
redgreenandblue Jan 2013 #6
patrice Jan 2013 #5
redgreenandblue Jan 2013 #7
patrice Jan 2013 #9
DanTex Jan 2013 #8
patrice Jan 2013 #12
redgreenandblue Jan 2013 #13
flamin lib Jan 2013 #11
redgreenandblue Jan 2013 #15
flamin lib Jan 2013 #16

Response to redgreenandblue (Original post)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 01:54 PM

1. Uh Oh... You're going to catch hell.

You'll catch hell for not including suicides.

The stealthy inclusion of suicides (which triples the death rate) is critical to arguments made in favor of greater gun control.

I happen to think that it's dishonest to include suicides, that we need to be concerned with what OTHERS will do to us, and that there's a fundamental right to take our own life.

Incidentally, our suicide rate is shocking and needs to be addressed quite differently from person on person violence.

...

BTW: I support expanding California's strict laws to all fifty states and support harsher penalties to crimes using firearms.

Lest I be accused, again, of using RW talking points...

K/R

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Response to NYC_SKP (Reply #1)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 02:00 PM

3. & what about accidents? nt

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Response to patrice (Reply #3)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 02:17 PM

10. Good point.

Not sure...

There are plenty of those, no common sense test needed to own firearms... I wish there was!

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Response to NYC_SKP (Reply #10)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 03:43 PM

14. They should be in a separate graph.

I think it obscures the lesson one can draw from each graph if one mixes too many metrics.

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Response to NYC_SKP (Reply #1)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 02:04 PM

4. harsher penalties for crimes using firearms

is a good start,
but it would not stop the people who intent to die while committing a massacre.

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Response to redgreenandblue (Original post)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 01:59 PM

2. Don't we need a ratio of homicides_per_100K : guns_per_100 ? nt

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Response to patrice (Reply #2)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 02:05 PM

6. In principle yes, but it could be instructive

to look at "intentional" and "unintentional" separately.

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Response to redgreenandblue (Original post)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 02:05 PM

5. Is it right to assume all homicides are the same, when, obviously, mass shootings are qualitatively

different, especially to those shot, than more one-on-one homicides?

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Response to patrice (Reply #5)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 02:07 PM

7. I'm not sure really.

Is it different to those shot? I cannot tell you, I've never been shot.

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Response to redgreenandblue (Reply #7)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 02:13 PM

9. I'm thinking in terms of the tactical issues associated with "control". When I see figures like this

I'm thinking, well all I would really need to do is avoid the kinds of persons and associated situations in which I might become a victim of homicide & that's stuff that I can choose to do, more or less effectively, myself. I CAN reduce my own risks. Not so with mass shootings, which may be rarer, but the consequences are bigger (more people shot) and the randomness makes it harder for me to do anything about it, especially in a concealed carry environment. From a macro-level those problems may not be statistically significant, but most people are not involved in that level of assessment; it's more about, TTE, "Can I go to a certain club downtown and have a good time?" Answer that question in-correctly JUST ONCE and that's all that matters to most of us.

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Response to redgreenandblue (Original post)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 02:11 PM

8. There's a huge amount of noise.

The fact that El Salvador and Uganda have high homicide rates doesn't tell us much about guns. To get a more informative comparison, compare the US to other developed nations with a peaceful and lawful society.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #8)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 02:52 PM

12. +++1!

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Response to DanTex (Reply #8)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 03:41 PM

13. You pick out a sub-set. I'll make the plot.

To make things easier, just use the same format as I have. Best would be to just copy and paste the list into a file and then delete the lines you don't want included.

It will be day or two though.

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Response to redgreenandblue (Original post)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 02:42 PM

11. I would like a bit more data, for instance

does the definition include collateral damage from drive-bys? Or non-intentional homicide as in "missed the intended and hit the victim standing next to the target"?

Beyond that I think accidental shootings and many suicides should be of equal concern to intentional homicide.

I guess what I'm concerned about is this being another "hammers kill more than guns" when the comparison is actually between all blunt trauma and rifles, a small subset of all guns.

I don't know and I'm not casting aspersion on the OP but I'm suspect of statistics that narrow definitions in what appears to be an effort to tell the truth attractively.

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Response to flamin lib (Reply #11)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 03:46 PM

15. I took the numbers from the wiki page. They were compiled by UNODC.

That is really all I know. Presumably collaterals of a drive-by would be included, but that is just speculation.

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Response to redgreenandblue (Reply #15)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 04:26 PM

16. Speculation. Therin lies the issue.

The nature of narrow and of overly broad definitions without sufficient information to really evaluate the data presented can lead to false conclusions, like the hammers vs guns meme. Once these things become part of the larger conversation they take on a life of their own, factual or not.

Take, for instance, the 20,000 gun laws truism. The Center on Urban & Metropolitan Policy did a study titled "Twenty Thousand Gun Laws" (it was in another DU post) and found there are closer to 300 State and Federal laws. They were careful to define gun laws for the purpose of the study as "laws pertaining to the manufacture, sale, purchase and possession of firearms" and to acknowledge there are other laws not germain to "gun control. Texas, for instance, has a surtax on a number of sporting items including ammunition for the purpose of funding Texas Parks and Wildlife (Perry raided the fund to support a fictitious surplus, but don't get me started . . .).

So, while I do not doubt the veracity of the data provided I don't think there is sufficient information to fully digest it and draw useful conclusions.

Sorry to be picking at nits, but it's a habit I picked up in the Gungeon.

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