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Tue Jan 8, 2013, 05:06 PM

America is NOT a Conservative Nation: More Voters Identify as DEMOCRATS than Republicans





Republicans have long argued that America is a conservative nation, but Democrats have now outnumbered Republicans in four of the past five presidential elections.


In article about the rise of moderates, Charlie Cook broke down the Democratic advantage in party identification,


But last year, Mitt Romney won the independent vote 50 to 45 percent, yet lost the election by almost 4 percentage points. For many avid election-watchers, if all that we knew was that Romney would carry the independent vote by 5 points, many of us would have bet on Obama losing the election. Meanwhile, congressional Republicans carried the independent vote nationally by an even wider 7 points, 51 to 44 percent, yet narrowly lost the popular vote for the House.


What has happened is that the gap between the share of voters who identify themselves as Democrats compared with those who consider themselves Republicans has grown so wide that, for the GOP, winning a majority of the independent vote nationally is necessary but no longer sufficient for winning a national popular vote. In this past election, 38 percent of voters called themselves Democrats, and just 32 percent called themselves Republicans. In 2008, it was Democrats at 39 percent and Republicans at 32 percent. Over the past five elections, only in 2004 were the two parties evenly matched at 37 percent each. In the other four elections, the Democratic advantage has been 4 points in 2000 (when Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College), 5 points in 1996, 6 points in 2012, and 7 points in 2008. This is certainly one reason why Republicans have lost the popular vote in five of the past six elections; generally there are more Democrats than Republicans. When the gap gets really wide, independents canít make the difference.



Cook argues that those who were predicting a Romney victory were looking in the wrong place. While Romney was winning with Independents, he was absolutely getting crushed by Obama with moderates. (It is no coincidence that the last three two term presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama were all able to successfully court moderates.)


Republicans have spent decades arguing that America is really a conservative country. (This bit of myth making can be traced back to Richard Nixonís silent majority.) The numbers actually tell the story of a country that over the two decades has been moving left. However, one specific shift that is blowing the notion of America being a conservative country to smithereens.


The Republican Partyís move to the far right has resulted in moderates moving more in line with the Democratic Party. Conservatives are fond of using Gallupís ideology poll to justify their America is a conservative country rhetoric, but the 2012 poll showed conservatives outnumbering moderates and liberals 40%-35%-21%. The problem for Republicans is that Obama carried moderates, 56%-41%. The majority of moderates are currently moving away from the Republican Party.In real world terms, this change is visible in national attitudes on everything from same sex marriage to taxes and gun control. While 2013 isnít a golden age of liberalism, the popular rejection of the Republican/conservative ideology in national elections dispels the notion that America is a conservative nation.




cont'
http://www.politicususa.com/america-conservative-nation-democrats-outnumbered-republicans-4-5-presidential-elections.html

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Reply America is NOT a Conservative Nation: More Voters Identify as DEMOCRATS than Republicans (Original post)
Segami Jan 2013 OP
geckosfeet Jan 2013 #1
tledford Jan 2013 #3
MrSlayer Jan 2013 #2
krawhitham Jan 2013 #4
socialist_n_TN Jan 2013 #5
leftstreet Jan 2013 #6
socialist_n_TN Jan 2013 #7
ChisolmTrailDem Jan 2013 #8

Response to Segami (Original post)

Tue Jan 8, 2013, 06:05 PM

1. Ha ha. The typcial moderate US democrat would likely be considered a raging rwinger in Europe.

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Response to geckosfeet (Reply #1)

Tue Jan 8, 2013, 06:08 PM

3. And would have been considered a raging rightwinger...

...here in the US forty years ago.

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Response to Segami (Original post)

Tue Jan 8, 2013, 06:07 PM

2. Democrat doesn't equal liberal.

 

As evidenced by our national politicians.

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Response to Segami (Original post)

Tue Jan 8, 2013, 06:30 PM

4. Most votes for republican house members ever happened in 2012

You can spin numbers to say anything

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Response to krawhitham (Reply #4)

Tue Jan 8, 2013, 08:31 PM

5. Yet the Democratic candidates STILL outpolled Republicans......

in the House races nationwide. Gerrymandering is the only way the Rs won the House.

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Response to krawhitham (Reply #4)

Tue Jan 8, 2013, 08:34 PM

6. 2012 lowest voter turnout since 2004 n/t

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Response to Segami (Original post)

Tue Jan 8, 2013, 08:36 PM

7. The ONLY way to look at the political tenor of the country is........

by looking at positions on ISSUES. Self identification polls only work when people actually KNOW what the labels mean and a sizable minority of the population has no clue. These are the ones who call themselves "moderate". In fact the only way to reconcile positions on issues with the self identification polls is to count almost ALL of the self identified "moderates" as left and not right.

And yes, I realize that "leftish" would probably be a better way to describe the people's positions on issues. But still the trend is moving left and not right.

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Response to Segami (Original post)

Tue Jan 8, 2013, 08:37 PM

8. Being a republican should get a person constantly ridiculed and

laughed at. They should have fingers pointed at them on the streets while calling out that they are stupid republicans or teabagger. They should be shamed by society.

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