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Wed Jan 2, 2013, 05:07 PM

Before the twitterverse melts down, let's review the House Speaker election process...

The new House comes in tomorrow at Noon. There will be 234 Republicans and 201 Democrats.

An absolute majority (218) of members is required for election as Speaker.

Either Boehner has 218 committed votes among the Republicans or not (he can afford to lose 16). If he does, he will be elected Speaker. If he does NOT (there is ONE Republican who says he'll vote no; American Majority Action claims 20 will refuse), then nobody will be elected Speaker on the first vote. Democrats (with a few exceptions) will vote for Pelosi or abstain. There will be no Democratic/Moderate Republican alliance to challenge him (if there was you would have heard about it by now) and if it existed they wouldn't be supporting Pelosi. Hence, no candidate will get 218 votes.

If the Speaker vote requires a second vote, expect a recess while both sides caucus. It is at this point that Cantor or Ryan or someone else will make their play. Boehner may make an appeal for support but will be "damaged goods"; if he effectively loses a no confidence vote, far more likely that he'll step down from the contest, and Republicans will rally around Cantor.

If CANTOR can't muster 218 votes for the Speakership, then all bets are off, and we're in for a long afternoon.

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Reply Before the twitterverse melts down, let's review the House Speaker election process... (Original post)
brooklynite Jan 2013 OP
Lone_Star_Dem Jan 2013 #1
PoliticAverse Jan 2013 #2
lunasun Jan 2013 #3

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 05:19 PM

1. I'm expecting a good show tomorrow.

Most often these deals are arranged beforehand, but not always. This is one of those cases where it's clear there is a movement to unseat Boehner.

A fractured GOP is always good viewing in my opinion.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 05:24 PM

2. Sorry but your numbers are in error...

First, it's an "absolute majority of the members present and voting" necessary to be elected Speaker.

And the new House will initially have only 433 members (2 vacant seats) meaning worst case
433/2 = 216.5 = 217 votes will be necessary to be elected Speaker (not 218).

If only 400 members actually cast a vote for Speaker for example, the number becomes 400/2 = 200+1 = 201 votes.

The 113th House will initially have 233 Republicans and 200 Democrats.

See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/113th_United_States_Congress
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL30857.pdf

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 05:32 PM

3. thank you 4 the info

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