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Wed Jan 2, 2013, 01:43 AM

 

Medicare the biggest contributor to deficit? Feds paid $223B for it in 2011, but $707 B on Defense.

Federal portion of medicare spending, p. 10

http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds/downloads/tr2012.pdf

Defense spending 2011 (Base DOD budget + contingency only, doesn't count other militarized agencies like homeland security:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States


YOU'RE WRONG, MR PRESIDENT.

24 replies, 1824 views

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Reply Medicare the biggest contributor to deficit? Feds paid $223B for it in 2011, but $707 B on Defense. (Original post)
HiPointDem Jan 2013 OP
leftstreet Jan 2013 #1
jeff47 Jan 2013 #2
JDPriestly Jan 2013 #12
ProSense Jan 2013 #3
HiPointDem Jan 2013 #4
HiPointDem Jan 2013 #13
cthulu2016 Jan 2013 #5
HiPointDem Jan 2013 #6
cthulu2016 Jan 2013 #7
HiPointDem Jan 2013 #8
cthulu2016 Jan 2013 #9
HiPointDem Jan 2013 #10
Fumesucker Jan 2013 #11
coalition_unwilling Jan 2013 #14
madrchsod Jan 2013 #20
TreasonousBastard Jan 2013 #15
HiPointDem Jan 2013 #16
TreasonousBastard Jan 2013 #17
HiPointDem Jan 2013 #18
jeff47 Jan 2013 #21
TreasonousBastard Jan 2013 #23
madrchsod Jan 2013 #19
mmonk Jan 2013 #22
HiPointDem Jan 2013 #24

Response to HiPointDem (Original post)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 01:46 AM

1. Sounds like we need a Military Contractor Catfood Commission

DURec

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Response to HiPointDem (Original post)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 01:46 AM

2. Defense spending is going down. Medicare spending is going up.

Thus Medicare is a larger problem in the long-term.

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Response to jeff47 (Reply #2)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 03:45 AM

12. One major difference that is never considered when the numbers are compared:

Medicare is actually winning wars against a lot of diseases and improving the lives of Americans.

The defense department does not seem to be capable of winning the wars it is supposed to be fighting.

Medicare is a successful program. The Defense Department is not.

So which should we be willing to fund?

A successful medical program or a failure of a defense program?

I think Medicare deserves more money. The Defense Department needs to learn to use its money better than it does. What happened in Iraq and what is happening in Afghanistan -- just a ridiculous waste of money and lives.

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Response to HiPointDem (Original post)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 01:49 AM

3. The President isn't wrong, but

"Feds paid $223 B in 2011"

...you appear insistent on making the case. That's nearly twice as much as spent on war in 2011.

Bending The Curve

The new Medicare Trustees Report is out. Comparing Table IIIA-2 in this yearís report and last yearís report, we get this:



Medicare Trustees

In other words, the Medicare actuaries believe that the cost-saving provisions in the Obama health reform will make a huge difference to the long-run budget outlook. Yes, itís just a projection, and debatable like all projections. And itís still not enough. But anyone who both claims to be worried about the long-run deficit and was opposed to health reform has some explaining to do. All the facts we have suggest that health reform was the biggest move toward fiscal responsibility in a long, long time.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/05/bending-the-curve/


Krugman: Itís Health Care Costs, Stupid
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021922243

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Response to ProSense (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 01:51 AM

4. Projections aren't current reality. Current reality is that federal spending on medicare is 1/3

 

that of defense spending. and it's been that way for a very long time.

Projections can be made to say whatever you want them to.

The current reality is that DEFENSE is driving deficits, not MEDICARE.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 03:49 AM

13. DOD's budget in 2011 WAS $707 BILLION DOLLARS. 317% more than what the feds spent on Medicare.

 

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Response to HiPointDem (Original post)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 01:53 AM

5. I assume he was talking about Rate of Change

The deficit (as opposed to the debt) is always a forward looking concept and is usually analyzed in terms of rate of change.

Since every dollar is worth the same as every other dollar, all dollars contribute equally to the deficit.

But when someone says that X is the biggest deficit problem they are typically saying, "X is projected to get bigger at a rate faster than the growth of spending or revenue in general."

I take your point while at the same time, I understood what he was saying.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 01:54 AM

6. ...if we made projections about future defense spending in relation to the last 10 years we could

 

make the same case.



Projections can be made to say anything you want, depending on the initial assumptions.

medicare spending has slowed dramatically since 2010:

www.healthbeatblog.com/2011/08/medicare-spending-slows-sharply-petwwr-orszag-isnt-surprised-eitherbut-will-the-slow-down-continue/

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Response to HiPointDem (Reply #6)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 02:04 AM

7. The rate of increase in medicare has slowed since 2010

As for what one projects the military budget to be... if anyone wants to say that military spending will increase more from 2008-2018 than medicare costs will during the same decade then they are being absurd, or predicting a big war or other huge expenditure that is not anticipated at this time.

Nobody I know of is projecting that the Defense budget will go up much in the next few years, and certainly not that the Defense budget is going to increase at a greater rate than Medicare. It could. We might do such a thing. We might invade Mexico for all I know. But there's no compelling reason to assume it or project it.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #7)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 02:10 AM

8. except it increased at a greater rate 2000-2010. as did spending on quasi-military things like

 

homeland security.

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Response to HiPointDem (Reply #8)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 02:20 AM

9. And if someone wants to use the arc of the Bush presidency as a basis to

extrapolate military spending in 2020 then they can do that. It's dishonest... but one can do it.

Seriously... you are arguing that the Iraq and Afghan wars are a forward-looking trend, which is perverse.

Perhaps we will invade and conquer two countries each decade, and the target countries will keep getting bigger.

But your reliance on 2000-2010 as a useful trend-line is making an assumption of future wars that is a lot more interesting as a prediction than what contributes to the deficit.

It is possible that defense spending might be 90% of the budget in 2022 when China invades Japan and the Philippines or something, but who would make a budget projection based on predicting that?

One might, but it's pretty irresponsible.

Why not assume all diseases will be cured with inexpensive drugs and Medicare will drop by 80%? It is the same kind of baseless prediction as using 2000-2010 to establish a military spending trend.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #9)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 02:28 AM

10. you can make projections say anything you want them to.

 

Sunday, a New York Times editorial confirmed that ďSince January 2010 the growth in Medicare spending has actually slowed to an annual rate of about 4 percent, less than half the annual rate for the previous decade.

There's no reason to assume that health care spending increases will mirror the past either.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #9)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 02:30 AM

11. One word

Iran.

A ground war with Iran would make Iraq and Afghanistan together look like child's play.

I don't think there's any guarantee that there will not be a war with Iran, the Israeli government certainly seems to want such a war and if Israel or the Iranians start one the chances of the US not getting dragged into it are slim to none.

Certainly I don't want a war with Iran but it would be imprudent to ignore the fact that war is a distinct possibility.

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Response to Fumesucker (Reply #11)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 03:57 AM

14. Iran (ground war) = World War III. We enter on Israel's side and Russia and China

 

each support Iran.

Iran has 1,000,000+ soldiers in its largely ethnically homogenous army. We won't be able to pit ethnic groups against one another like we did in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran has 80,000+ trained operatives in its Revolutionary Guard.

We will pay dearly, in treasure and blood, for any ground invasion of Iran.

Persia (Iran) has been around a fuck of a lot longer than "Current Events" USA.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 06:57 AM

20. not every dollar is worth the same.

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Response to HiPointDem (Original post)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 04:07 AM

15. We got a problem with these kinds of numbers...

What percentage of Pentagon expenditures is returned to the economy through jobs and US made purchases compared to that returned to the economy in medical expenditures with fewer people working and much imported equipment? Imagine the country without all those little companies making belt buckles, Brasso, bullets, tank turrets, and everything else they use.

While we're certainly spending too much money on the military, if you look at it strictly as a jobs program, it could be one of the best we have.

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Response to TreasonousBastard (Reply #15)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 05:18 AM

16. We got a problem with people trying to style dod as a jobs program. it's no better a jobs program

 

than healthcare, likely worse.

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Response to HiPointDem (Reply #16)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 05:37 AM

17. I wasn't "styling" anything, simply...

mentioning that a whole hell of a lot of people are employed one way or another by DoD. Even the six in the small machine shop down the road from me that had the huge Romney sign. This is by design and every Congressional district has its military bases or vendors that are virtually untouchable because every Congresscritter has the list of jobs that will be lost if the operation is shut down. (Oops, that is starting to look like a jobs plan after all.)

Federal spending on healthcare, while large, doesn't include all healthcare, and remains to be seen how much it contributes to acceleration in the real economy.

I admitted I don't have all the numbers-- the point of my post is that they are missing. But I didn't make any bald claim except the obvious that the DoD hires a lot of people, directly or indirectly, and only suggested it might be a better accelerant than federal health spending. If you have the numbers, let's see them and settle it.

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Response to TreasonousBastard (Reply #17)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 06:15 AM

18. private sector healthcare employs about 11% of the population according to this.

 

http://www.ibtimes.com/healthcare-accounts-107-percent-total-us-employment-report-269053

about 3 million active service military and aerospace/defense employs about 3.5 million directly & indirectly. = 6.5 million per this.

www.aia-aerospace.org/assets/deloitte_study_2012.pdf

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Response to HiPointDem (Reply #18)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 12:02 PM

21. What's the public healthcare number?

There's a lot of private health care that isn't government funded. Such as mine.

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Response to HiPointDem (Reply #18)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 12:57 PM

23. 11% of 140 million is around 15 million...

It all depends on how you count the numbers http://www.deptofnumbers.com/employment/us/ but around 140 million is close enough.

So, if it's true that 11% is in healthcare (however one might define "healthcare") that's around 15 million. But, unlike DoD, not all healthcare is government funded. Personal money and private/employee insurance pays for a lot. How much? I have no idea. Half, maybe? Nor do I know the salary ranges-- are cleaning crews in hospitals included in the 11%? The sales clerks in optical shops?

Anyway, none of this matters to the simple observation that the Pentagon creates a lot of jobs. Would it be better if those jobs were nurses and teachers instead of generals and arms fabricators?

Probably.





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Response to HiPointDem (Original post)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 06:53 AM

19. medicare is`t a debt

it`s a public good and has a return on investment. military spending is`t an investment because it returns nothing for every dollar invested.

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Response to HiPointDem (Original post)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 12:18 PM

22. The biggest contributor to deficits has been tax cuts.

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Response to mmonk (Reply #22)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 02:15 PM

24. +1

 

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