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Tue Jan 1, 2013, 04:53 PM

POTUS & VP have set the stage to retake House in 2014

and Turtleman has abetted them in their efforts.

Many on the left were outraged at the deal made with Boehner, then the failure of Plan B reset the bargaining.

Many on the left are unhappy with the bill passed last night in the Senate, but much of what was in the earlier deal are now off the table.

With the in fighting in the House majority leadership, it now looks like they may effectively kill this deal, which would again reset the bargaining points with a new Congressional membership.

How hard will it be for the President to make the case that everyone's taxes went up and the general economy was stifled because of the incompetence of the Speaker and his party's leadership? Hanging every economic woe around the Republicans' necks will be a slam dunk. A continuous drumbeat about another do nothing Congress could be the lever needed to pry loose enough House seats to put Nancy P back in the Speaker's chair.

BTW, if Cantor replaces Boehner, the chances are even higher.

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Arrow 30 replies Author Time Post
Reply POTUS & VP have set the stage to retake House in 2014 (Original post)
bigbrother05 Jan 2013 OP
RomneyLies Jan 2013 #1
Pachamama Jan 2013 #29
RomneyLies Jan 2013 #30
CakeGrrl Jan 2013 #2
bigbrother05 Jan 2013 #4
farminator3000 Jan 2013 #20
putitinD Jan 2013 #3
RomneyLies Jan 2013 #10
leanforward Jan 2013 #23
RomneyLies Jan 2013 #24
leanforward Jan 2013 #21
unblock Jan 2013 #5
RomneyLies Jan 2013 #11
SunSeeker Jan 2013 #14
oldhippydude Jan 2013 #18
pipoman Jan 2013 #6
Sekhmets Daughter Jan 2013 #7
OldDem2012 Jan 2013 #9
chieftain Jan 2013 #8
madville Jan 2013 #12
medeak Jan 2013 #13
SunSeeker Jan 2013 #15
plethoro Jan 2013 #16
CranialRectaLoopback Jan 2013 #17
cecilfirefox Jan 2013 #19
farminator3000 Jan 2013 #22
Swede Atlanta Jan 2013 #25
bigbrother05 Jan 2013 #27
bluestateguy Jan 2013 #26
bigbrother05 Jan 2013 #28

Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 04:54 PM

1. Now we need a couple of blue states to pull a Texas and redistrict again

 

Gerryander the hell out of the states to insure all seats are Dem.

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Response to RomneyLies (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 12:03 AM

29. So you are suggesting that Democrats become like Repukes?

I think Gerrymandering is wrong....I dont think it should be done and I think we are better than that or the GOP to roll in mud...

That said, you dont show up to a knife fight thinking you only need to be playing chess....chess is good, but we may need some knifes because the GOP fights dirty....

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Response to Pachamama (Reply #29)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 12:26 AM

30. The GOP showed up to this knife fight with a gun

 

Time to lob a grenade.

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 04:56 PM

2. POTUS plays the long game.

I'd love to see some of the "He caved again!" crowd call the shots having to deal with this Congress face-to-face.

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Response to CakeGrrl (Reply #2)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 05:04 PM

4. Not only a long game, but multidimensional as well

Think if we take his campaign promises are the goals, we can see how the moves are taking us in that direction even though there may be some detours as a result of roadblocks from the other side.

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Response to bigbrother05 (Reply #4)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 07:59 PM

20. well said

maybe you CAN get there from here?

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 05:01 PM

3. I thought that re-districting can only be done after a cencus (any year ending in 0), maybe I'm wron

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Response to putitinD (Reply #3)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 05:18 PM

10. You're wrong.

 

Texas did it in an of year several years back. It was pushed by Tom Delay to increase the GOP caucus from Texas. Courts upheld it.

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Response to RomneyLies (Reply #10)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 08:08 PM

23. Redistricting

I stand corrected from my following post. I didn't think redistricting could happen in mid census. But then Delay is involved.

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Response to leanforward (Reply #23)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 08:10 PM

24. And courts in Texas, later upheld by the RW SCOTUS. n/t

 

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Response to putitinD (Reply #3)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 08:03 PM

21. redistricting

Not wrong. Redistricting happens after the decennial census. What we need is a bi-annual strategy until 2020. Ground troops and the works. I thought I read something about picking out "pocket counties" and expanding registration there. I recently saw a demographics of the Louisville, KY area. The democrats are a huge blue pocket. How do we expand? That's just one I noted. I'm sure there are others above my retired pay grade that have a handle on other areas.

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 05:05 PM

5. yeah! now all we have to do is wait for the next redistricting, after the 2020 census!

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Response to unblock (Reply #5)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 05:19 PM

11. Or push for another redistricting in Blue States

 

Texas already set the precedent that you can redistrict any damned time you want. Courts upheld the power of the states to do that.

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Response to RomneyLies (Reply #11)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 07:14 PM

14. Yup. And payback's a beeatch.nt

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Response to RomneyLies (Reply #11)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 07:45 PM

18. actually i don't see Dem's emulating Tom Delay

that's not who we are... but better yet I see those red house districts aging to wards purple... if we are lucky the big right money sitting out 14... each election us picking up seats... after all the culture war stuff is wearing out, and that's all they have

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 05:07 PM

6. Or a replay of 1994

if they decide to punish the masses of innocents in favor of trying to control the guilty..

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 05:10 PM

7. Sure 'cuz

all those republicans who have been voting against their own economic best interest for 30 years are going to suddenly awaken. When they do they'll discover a new fondness for Black people, Gay people, poor people and independent women. They'll turn their gerrymandered red districts blue in a heartbeat, because no one is going to lie to them and tell them it was all Obama's fault.

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Response to Sekhmets Daughter (Reply #7)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 05:17 PM

9. All those Republicans making less than the median income are going to take.....

....one look at their first paycheck after going over the fiscal cliff and realize they've been duped for the past 30 years. Those Republicans who are on unemployment are going to really be incensed.

The GOP Tea-Nazis lose, and lose in a BIG way.

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 05:12 PM

8. The President will be free to channel HST

if he chooses to. And he should. The GOP has proven repeatedly that it is not a fit governing party. With no need to run for another office and no rational basis to think that the Republicans are capable of negotiating in good faith, Obama has the opportunity to retake the House and set the stage for some genuine progressive legislation in his final 2 years. Give 'em hell, Barack!!!

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 05:45 PM

12. Republicans have no chance if they compromise and work with Democrats

Their base won't stand for it. 2014 will be about turnout and how pissed off either sides' base is. Any of them that compromise risk being primaried as well which is easier in a midterm year.

We all also remember how they were toast after 2006-2008 as well.

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 06:19 PM

13. GOP jerrymandering tough to beat

With gop losing senate seats but not house thanks to their slicing up districts to favor them....it will be difficult to overcome despite their dysfunction.

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Response to medeak (Reply #13)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 07:16 PM

15. That's why the Kochs and Fox POURED money into the Republican Governors Association...

and local races. Once they turned all the state legistlatures red, they could gerrymander to their heart's content. They're getting a big bang for their buck on that local campaign spending, unlike what they spent on Mitt.

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 07:31 PM

16. Depends. If between now and then the social programs are cut or even

 

breached, the House WILL NOT be retaken. That means Obama has to hold firm against any cuts. If he doesn't and they happen, that becomes a powerful Republican media ad. I have gotten hundreds of calls from my diabetic website asking if Obama was going to cut Social Security. I kept saying no, even during the possible chained cpi conversion. If that no turns to a yes, I know what these folks will do in the election after that. Many of them have nothing else but "entitlements".

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 07:37 PM

17. Today is January 1st, not April 1st

 

But that was a good one, nevertheless!

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 07:55 PM

19. Re-districting has probably tempered that until the next populus wave of anger hits and its

squarely aimed at the Republicans. In these districts it'll take a 1992, 2006, 2010 type of moment- not sure what we'll see in the midterms just yet.

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 08:06 PM

22. watch out for gerry and the mander-makers!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/14/in_pennsylvania_the_gerrymander_of_the_decade_112404.html

"There have been a lot of good candidates for the "gerrymander of the decade" award this cycle. North Carolina, Illinois and Texas have all dreamed up district lines that have gone well beyond what many pundits believed could be pulled off in those states. Honorable mentions go to Massachusetts and Maryland, whose districts combine to allow for the election of one Republican out of 17 districts.

But the legislators in all those states were making heavily Democratic/Republican delegations in states that were likewise heavily Democratic/Republican. That isn’t a tremendous job.

Republicans in Pennsylvania, however, took a state that is two or three points more Democratic than the country as a whole, and created 12 districts (out of 18) that are more Republican than the country as a whole. They did so by creating what can only be called a group of Rorschach-inkblot districts in southeastern Pennsylvania.

The net result is a map that shores up their vulnerable incumbents, and that may well result in a 14-4 Republican edge by the end of the decade.

To see how this works, take a look at the following two charts...."

4th from last paragraph-
In other words, the Democratic areas of these districts are now in places that have been trending Republican slowly, rather than in places that have been trending Democratic slowly. This limits the potential for a “dummymander,” where redistricting backfires as districts shift over the course of the decade.

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 09:20 PM

25. The problem with the House is gerrymandering.....

 

I heard the other day that over 75% of House seats are generally considered safe due to gerrymandering. They are considered safe seats for the incumbent party.

So, getting to a majority with the few "at play" seats may be a challenge.

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #25)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 09:42 PM

27. Completely understand, hoping the Obama ground organization will stay in place

That coupled with hanging the economy on the RW could make the difference. If we focus on the 'possible' seats like we did on the swing states, we could do this.

WH success showing the ineffectiveness of the RW could open some eyes in close elections. We also need to find the strongest candidates available.

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Response to bigbrother05 (Original post)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 09:40 PM

26. Not happening

Obama could be at 70% with a 6% unemployment rate, and it would still not happen.

Those districts are too gerrymandered to expect anything more than single digit gains in 2014; and that is being optimistic.

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Response to bluestateguy (Reply #26)

Tue Jan 1, 2013, 09:46 PM

28. They won't be voting for Obama, but someone they know locally.

There were several high profile Repubs that had their closest elections in years. If we concentrate on turnout, it could happen.

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