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Wed Dec 26, 2012, 04:27 AM

 

Hillary Clinton45 should get 400-413 electoral votes in 2016, based on the current map of the states

I see no states that voted for President Obama turning red.
I see a bunch of states that will vote for Hillary45 either because they like her already, or because of demographic change equal to 81 more electoral votes.

In 2012 it was
President Obama44 332
Mitt the loser 206

In 2016 I see
President Hillary Clinton45 413 plus
Jeb the loser 125 or less

and I predict Texas as blue by then and in Hillary's count.

this means
WVA-the one state Hillary was much more popular than President Obama in 2008
GA
SC
ARI
TEXAS
NC

and this doesn't include Arkansas and Tenn. where, with Bill's help and the racism issue off the table, might be turnable in 2016

By the time Hillary45 finishes her 8 years, the US Supreme Court will be 8 to 1 in our favor.
(though I hope it will be 6 to 3 or 7 to 2 in our favor by the end of President Obama's 2nd term.)

Jeb can't swiftboat Hillary, can't Dukakis Hillary, and as long as the dems aren't the fractured party, and as long as it's Hillary, we got it in the bag.
Put somebody less than Hillary, and Jeb will Dukakis them like they did to Dukakis himself and Mondale when Mondale ran against Reagan and later for Senate.
There is no dirt on Hillary that hasn't been yawningly talked about for decades now.


(and if it is a different republican, the margin could be even wider.
The odd thing is, though, if it is a different Democrat, we could be looking at the exact opposite)
imho

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Reply Hillary Clinton45 should get 400-413 electoral votes in 2016, based on the current map of the states (Original post)
graham4anything Dec 2012 OP
exboyfil Dec 2012 #1
Tunkamerica Dec 2012 #8
AnnieK401 Dec 2012 #11
Spider Jerusalem Dec 2012 #2
graham4anything Dec 2012 #3
Spider Jerusalem Dec 2012 #4
aaaaaa5a Dec 2012 #42
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Dec 2012 #57
Fumesucker Dec 2012 #5
davidpdx Dec 2012 #12
Sherman A1 Dec 2012 #6
graham4anything Dec 2012 #24
wyldwolf Dec 2012 #7
leftofcool Dec 2012 #10
graham4anything Dec 2012 #25
Ford_Prefect Dec 2012 #9
Capt. Obvious Dec 2012 #13
hobbit709 Dec 2012 #14
kentuck Dec 2012 #15
fadedrose Dec 2012 #16
Cleita Dec 2012 #20
karynnj Dec 2012 #45
Odin2005 Dec 2012 #17
NewJeffCT Dec 2012 #18
kestrel91316 Dec 2012 #19
northoftheborder Dec 2012 #32
Comrade Grumpy Dec 2012 #39
tradecenter Dec 2012 #21
Sherman A1 Dec 2012 #50
MadHound Dec 2012 #22
graham4anything Dec 2012 #26
Comrade_McKenzie Dec 2012 #23
graham4anything Dec 2012 #38
LeftyMom Dec 2012 #27
graham4anything Dec 2012 #28
Comrade Grumpy Dec 2012 #40
graham4anything Dec 2012 #48
tradecenter Dec 2012 #31
vaberella Dec 2012 #29
datasuspect Dec 2012 #30
graham4anything Dec 2012 #35
datasuspect Dec 2012 #41
graham4anything Dec 2012 #46
datasuspect Dec 2012 #49
farminator3000 Dec 2012 #33
SheilaT Dec 2012 #34
coalition_unwilling Dec 2012 #36
graham4anything Dec 2012 #37
Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2012 #44
graham4anything Dec 2012 #47
Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2012 #51
graham4anything Dec 2012 #52
Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2012 #53
graham4anything Dec 2012 #55
Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2012 #54
tradecenter Dec 2012 #59
graham4anything Dec 2012 #60
Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2012 #43
Little Star Dec 2012 #56
Ford_Prefect Dec 2012 #58

Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 04:41 AM

1. I think you are mistaken

I know the first attack on Clinton - age - 6 years separate her from Jeb Bush

The second will be anything wrong in Obama's administration - she owns it

The third thing will be how she is leaving SoS - her falling (or was it a stroke) convenient to avoid testifying in Benghazi. The right will remind folks of her many "I don't remember" testimony on the billing records

I am not being critical of H. Clinton, and I think she could win. I just don't think it would be a walk.

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Response to exboyfil (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 06:50 AM

8. i agree on a few points but she is testifying, last i heard

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Response to exboyfil (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 06:58 AM

11. You make some great points.

I agree with everything you've said. Age would be a factor. We have seen what the Presidency does to relatively young people. Also, she has decided not to serve another 4 yrs. as Secretary of State. This might raise even more questions about whether or not she is up for at least 4 yrs. as POTUS. Also, we'll see how Obama's 2nd term goes. That will of course, fairly or unfairly, reflect on her. Even though on one level I would love to see it happen, the realities mentioned make it somewhat questionable.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 04:46 AM

2. Ahahaha, no.

There's no way that GA, SC, WV, TX and NC go blue in 2016. Maybe NC. Not the rest. Not happening.

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Response to Spider Jerusalem (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 04:57 AM

3. W.Va has a democratic senator, and she was extra popular in 2008 there.

 

Texas can go blue if Castro wins the Governorship

some of the others with GOTV there and getting rid of some Jim Crow laws can turn
along with Demographic shifts in Arizona and the south

It might be 2020 for some, but even so, can't see with the solid support of President Obama any blue state turning. He solidly won almost all the swing states by much larger amounts than any poll picked up and no reason it would be less.

With Jeb running Rubio won't, nor can he be VP(not that the racists in their party would vote for him anyhow) and Christie wouldn't win the really red states as they don't like the vast majority of views Christie has on republican wedge issues.(plus Christie would not secure any blue states votes, though he would make a good VP pitbull choice).

As for Bengazi its a phony issue that nobody who is a democrat blames on Rice let alone Hillary and it will show how while the red meat people will devour it, they already are anti-any dem, so it is meaningless.
Besides, with Kerry leading the SOS, it will all be on his lap, the one genius part of putting him at SOS, he will get any/all blame and take all the hits.(an Obama rope the dope working again).
It's a dead non-issue. Nobody gives a shit about it.
Remember it was President Obama and Hillary that got BinLaden. And BinLaden will be in the news all through April, drowning out any bullshit with McCain(who should be satisfied getting his BFF Kerry), what with the Zero DarkThirty most likely being a best picture nominee if not outright winning some awards (including Best actress for Jessica Chastain, continuing the year of the women meme). Some could say she is Hillary in the movie though not really, but reality don't matter anyhow.

as Hillary said, there is a rightwing conspiracy, and she was right then and it still is, but it won't affect here(also, she fights dirty, and knows where the dirt is on Jeb and
it takes a Clinton to beat a Bush. She cannot be Dukakissed.

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 05:08 AM

4. West Virginia went for Romney by 27 points

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Response to Spider Jerusalem (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 01:38 PM

42. Agreed. The OP was a bit optimistic.

In 2016 we should win the Obama 2012 states plus:

Indiana-Obama won here in 2008. In 2012 it was shockingly much closer than people thought. I think had Obama put resources here, it would have been close again. Romney and the GOP badly underperformed their 2004 numbers.

North Carolina-Obama won here in 2008. In 2012 this race was much closer than most pollsters reported it would be. Demographic changes over the next 4 years should add at least a 1 point to the Democrats column. I think if Obama had invested more here, he would have carried the state in 2012. He did not visit NC once after the convention. And NC was still very close on election day.

In addition, these will be the new battle-ground tossup states:

Arizona-Demographic changes will continue to bring this state closer to us. In 2016 I think Hillary can put in play.

Montana-Nobody pays attention to the mountain west, but has anyone noticed what is going on here. Obama ran relatively competitively here in 2008. I think Hillary could put it in play in 2016. Gun legislation could kill us in a state like this this however.



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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #42)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 05:07 PM

57. The poster lives in the same area code as the people who listened to Dick Morris

Kool-Aid Land.

No one will be winning 400 EV's any time soon.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 05:12 AM

5. A lot can happen in four years

Indeed a lot will happen in four years, there is a reason we have time and that is to keep everything from happening all at once.

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Response to Fumesucker (Reply #5)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 07:27 AM

12. Apparently some people want to write the future before it happens

Cart before the horse

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 05:12 AM

6. Begging the question

(should she run and that in and of itself is not certain) assuming all the above (and that is a huge stretch, me thinks), why is she not the current President of the United States?

Never believe that in politics there is a sure thing. While demographics are changing as you state, we have not seen the true effect of money on an election.

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Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #6)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 11:45 AM

24. because she would have won except for one thing-President Obama & his voters

 

next time she will have them(me included).

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 06:50 AM

7. If she gets into the race, I really dread 2016

She can definitely hold her own against the right wing attack machine, I just dread how she's going to savaged by the left. I'm going to stay out of the coming primary wars. 2004 and 2008 were enough for me.

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Response to wyldwolf (Reply #7)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 06:57 AM

10. I don't think she will run just for that reason.

Most Republicans respect her, it's the left who hates her. She won't run.

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Response to wyldwolf (Reply #7)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 11:47 AM

25. Obama's fans and her fans are all that is needed.Nader lied, and anyone stupid enough to still

 

believe him or a 3rd party must want the republican to win (like Nader did).

there is only one other person around that can beat Jeb, and that would be running as a Democrat, Mike Bloomberg.(but a white male won't ever be the democratic nominee again anyhow based on who votes Democratic.

all the others will lose like Dukakis did to Bush and the same way.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 06:53 AM

9. I am sorry to say that Saint Hillary of all corporations has much yet to answer for, as does Obama.

The DLC has already done us in on free trade, welfare reform and privatizing public education. What other luxuries await working class citizens under the DLC umbrella of Neo-Liberalism?

Yuppie re-branded Liberalism does not equal New Deal/ Great Society Democratic values.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 07:31 AM

13. Why stop there?

Dream big!

She also picks up AL, AK, OK, SD, ND, ID, UT, MT, MO, KY, TN, MS, IN, and WY

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 07:37 AM

14. Now THAT is some major amount of delusion.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 08:08 AM

15. Unless, of course...

...the right-wing decide that she really did kill Vince Foster and they really don't like her anymore...

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 08:23 AM

16. Health care may be a factor - Dean would deliver

We were all hyped up on a single-payer health care plan, and who got us started on it? Howard Dean in 2004, that's who. The DLC screwed him.

If he gets the right campaign manager, he still has DFA collecting contributions and it could happen.

Too many of us still love him and will support him before ANYONE else. He had nothing to do with Nafta, Iraq, etc., and has always been loyal to Obama throughtout this president's term(s). A Biden-Dean ticket would work for me as well.

The DLC is not progressive enough.

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Response to fadedrose (Reply #16)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 10:36 AM

20. Until we get rid of global corporate influence in our politics, Dean or another

like him will never have a chance. We will get Hillary or another DLC pet rammed down our throats.

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Response to fadedrose (Reply #16)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 02:35 PM

45. Dean had an excellent plan in 2004, but it was not single payer --- any more than Kerry's

excellent plan. Dean and Kerry had the best 2004 plans and they laid the groundwork for the plans in 2008 - a year where Democrats could be more ambitious.

I honestly don't think Dean would undertake another run for the Presidency. I think running for President has become increasingly grueling and I doubt he puts himself through that again. (I do agree that he would need a better campaign manager, but one thing about Trippi, is that almost anyone who runs high level campaigns on the Democratic side is better!

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 08:44 AM

17. I like Hillary, but she is too old.

She would be in her mid 70s by the time she finished her second term. She was exhausted by 4 years as Sec. of State, how is she going to handle 8 years of the most stressful job in the world? Hell, Obama looks like he has aged 10 years in the past 4.

She had her chance in 2008, she lost in the primaries.

Also, given her age there is the risk of her developing Alzheimer's in office like Reagan.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 08:51 AM

18. I think either Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio could swing Florida to Republican

I don't think Texas is ready to go blue in a presidential election yet - maybe in 2020 or 2024. I think Chris Christie is a possibility as well - even though he's less stridently far right on some issues than most of the GOP these days, the teabaggers love his tough talk and tough guy attitude.

If the economy is going well in 2016, I think Clinton would be tough to beat even if Republicans ran the ghost of Reagan.

If the economy is still making slow progress like now, the outcome is very much in doubt. They'll say Obama had 8 years to turn things around and it still hasn't happened (no matter that we suffered through 8 years of unprecedented obstructionism, or that the downturn was caused by W's economic policies...)

The media seems to love Rubio and Christie as well, but had no real love for Romney. I could see some of the swing states going Red in 2016 because of this.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 10:32 AM

19. Good GAWD. Can we live in the PRESENT for just 5 minutes??

She has not said she will run, AND President Obama is weeks away from being sworn in for his second term.

Sheesh.

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Response to kestrel91316 (Reply #19)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 12:08 PM

32. Please, please, don't start the next presidential election yet. Wait until 2014.

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Response to kestrel91316 (Reply #19)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 12:54 PM

39. I'm with you guys. Check back in a couple of years.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 10:43 AM

21. Pure conjecture on your part.

 

You or anyone else has no idea of what's going to happen in 2016, you don't even know if mankind will still be around.
How about living in the present instead of the future and let's work on making this country a better place, like addressing Climate Change, gun control, equal rights for all, bring all our troops home, rebuild our infrastructure, things like that.

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Response to tradecenter (Reply #21)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 03:45 PM

50. Don't Stop Him Now.....

he's on a roll....

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 10:45 AM

22. First off, the election is four years away, a lot can happen between now and then,

 

Second, few presidents have gotten that many electoral votes, and given Hillary's record, I seriously doubt that she would.

Third, a Hillary candidacy would lose of lot of support among liberals, including myself.

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