Mon Dec 24, 2012, 04:45 PM

louis c (4,595 posts)

My Fiscal Cliff Prediction

Last edited Mon Dec 24, 2012, 04:52 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

We're going over and I don't think that's such a bad thing.

Some people will get hurt for the first week to 10 days, including the 2,000,000 people on long term unemployment (greater than 6 months). However, that can be fixed, retroactively, if the Republicans agree to it in a package.

Tax cuts, which start at under $250,000 will pass within the first week of the new Congress. Republicans can't vote against that. Spending cuts (without entitlements) will be instituted and a 1 year agreement on extending the debt ceiling will also happen.

What will stay is the estate tax increase, a large increase in capital gains and a far more progressive income tax system. The middle class will not get out of this completely unscathed, as we will see the return of the "payroll tax" for Social Security and Medicare.

This will be done without the 55 or so Republican teabaggers, which will signal Boehner's final stint as House Speaker.

Let's see how close I come to being correct on this.

6 replies, 462 views

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6 replies	Author	Time	Post
My Fiscal Cliff Prediction (Original post)	louis c	Dec 2012	OP
I made a similar prediction to mom	nadinbrzezinski	Dec 2012	#1
I suspect you're pretty close...	2naSalit	Dec 2012	#2
I can't predict that specific	louis c	Dec 2012	#3
Mirrors my guess	Moral Compass	Dec 2012	#4
I hope you are right about the payroll tax cut, I think it was a stupid	doc03	Dec 2012	#5
and those of us who can.......	Skittles	Dec 2012	#6

Response to louis c (Original post)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 04:49 PM

nadinbrzezinski (120,089 posts)

1. I made a similar prediction to mom

Who is deadly afraid of the curb.

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 04:55 PM

2naSalit (1,658 posts)

2. I suspect you're pretty close...

how do you speculate that it might impact DoD funding? I'd like to see a lot of it go away and redirect funding for implementing policies, education and modernizing infrastructure with sustainability in mind that we need really badly in the US of A. The infrastructure rebuild would create a lot of jobs right away.

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Response to 2naSalit (Reply #2)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 05:37 PM

louis c (4,595 posts)

3. I can't predict that specific

but I do think that the Defense spending will be tied to the Debt Ceiling extension.

The budget cuts may not be as attractive to us as the tax cuts.

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 05:53 PM

Moral Compass (106 posts)

4. Mirrors my guess

You are describing the politically possible which is also the most likely.

God, politics is a messy business!

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 06:04 PM

doc03 (13,838 posts)

5. I hope you are right about the payroll tax cut, I think it was a stupid

idea to start with. I wouldn't be really be surprised that the House doesn't vote for the tax cut under $250,000, I don't think the teabaggers care about the economy, they're nuts..

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Tue Dec 25, 2012, 12:30 AM

Skittles (86,204 posts)

6. and those of us who can.......

help those who may be impacted!

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