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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 03:44 PM

Russia, Iran Lose When Assad Falls, But Who Wins?

There is not much doubt that the Syrian regime headed by Bashar Al-Assad will collapse soon and the dictator will flee to Moscow. In many ways that will be a welcome development, but the fall of Assad will raise new concerns for Israel, the United States and moderate Arab states.

--CLIP
The fall of Assad and his minority Alawite regime will be a net plus for many reasons. The big losers will be Iran, Russia and terrorist elements such as the Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Iran is a close ally of Syria and Assad, not just because the Alawites (only about 11 percent of Syriaís population) are a Shia sect, but as a key conduit for Tehranís shipments of weapons and supplies to Palestine and Lebanon. Syria is Russiaís only ally in the region, indeed Moscowís only foothold there, including most importantly its naval base at Latakia.

Given that the fall of Assad would be such a devastating loss for Iran, Russia and the Hezbollah, it would seem axiomatic that it would be a net plus for Israel. Maybe. While Syria under Assad has certainly been no friend to Israel, there have been no major conflicts between the two for more than 30 years. The Golan Heights has been quiet.

What is driving the ambivalence on Assadís fall is the uncertainty regarding what a follow-on regime might look like. Israel and the U.S. are worried about the increasing dominance in the rebel alliance by highly capable Sunni forces, including elements associated with al-Qaida in Iraq and the Nusra Front, which has been declared a terrorist organization by the United States. There is considerable sympathy for, if not direction from, the Muslim Brotherhood within the rebel coalition.

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http://www.rgj.com/article/20121223/OPED/312230022/Russia-Iran-lose-when-Assad-falls-who-wins-?nclick_check=1

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Reply Russia, Iran Lose When Assad Falls, But Who Wins? (Original post)
Purveyor Dec 2012 OP
Piazza Riforma Dec 2012 #1
AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #2
Puregonzo1188 Dec 2012 #3
pampango Dec 2012 #5
riderinthestorm Dec 2012 #4

Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 05:07 PM

1. Be careful what you wish for. . . . .

 

We supported the ouster of Mubarak, Saleh and Gaddhafi and in each of theirs places is an Islamist led government. There are troubling links between the "Free Syrian Army" and Al Qaeda.

I don't fear Iran, I fear yet another Al Qaeda safe haven.

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Response to Piazza Riforma (Reply #1)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 05:26 PM

2. Not in Libya, though. n/t

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 05:36 PM

3. Most likely the US and Israel. Which is a loss for the Syrian people.

Though Assad staying in power is also a loss for them as well. Assad was a tyrant and the Syrian people had a right to rid themselves of him. However, the situation in Syria is sadly no longer about the Syrian people--its about power plays by great powers and inter-imperialist rivalry. Nether the US, Russia, Israel, Iran, or Assad give a fuck about the Syrian people--they only care about holding onto and maximizing their influence.

It's a shame in 2012 humanity can't do better than this band of thugs.

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Response to Puregonzo1188 (Reply #3)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 07:41 PM

5. You are right. "Assad was a tyrant and the Syrian people had a right to rid

themselves of him."

Reminiscent of white rule in South Africa, the majority have a right to majority rule. Many whites expected a genocide if Black majority rule ever came about.

Fortunately events worked out differently.

"It's a shame in 2012 humanity can't do better than this band of thugs."

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 05:52 PM

4. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the rest of the Sunni states that will slaughter the Shia in a genocide

It won't look anything like what we might think of as a "win" but in their eyes, this will be a centuries long "victory" they've been salivating for since, well, forever.

They'll take down a whole bunch of other religious and cultural minorities as well - even better in their eyes.

Our part in this debacle is disgusting.



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