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Tue Dec 18, 2012, 02:33 PM

It's High Fructose Corn Syrup, damn it.

Last edited Tue Dec 18, 2012, 03:31 PM - Edit history (5)



This post is offered to say something about correlation.

I do not think that obesity causes shootings. It may, however, correlate slightly more with gun violence state-by-state, than gun sales. (It is close, either way.) A state voting for McCain in 2008 is the highest correlative factor for state gun violence. Obesity and gun violence both are red state pathologies.

There are a thousand factors in gun violence, of course. Aside from guns, the biggest would be alcohol and poverty for shootings in general. In terms of these mass-shootings, mental illness.

Since the link between guns and all shootings is direct, however, insofar as all shooters have access to guns, rather than merely most shooters, guns are a very good factor to consider. Better than obesity, surely.

That doesn't prove that guns are the problem, but it's a lot more to the point than mere correlation, like that shootings are more common since the development of SSRIs, or cell phones or video games... or since "Friends" went off the air.

On the other hand, video games or drugs or laws or cell phones could be factors. Certainly. Even prime movers. But it requires a darn good argument beyond correlation.

(And optimal policy may not be the same as obvious policy. For instance, I suspect that prohibition reduced alcoholism while increasing fatalities from alcoholism. Policy depends what specific result you're after.)



And a lot of correlations are really correlations with something else. The lowest state gun violence correlation is the percentage of college educated people in the state, but it does not follow that Pell grants would reduce gun violence more than background checks. Maybe they would, but the negative correlation doesn't mean that by itself.


21 replies, 1960 views

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Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 21 replies Author Time Post
Reply It's High Fructose Corn Syrup, damn it. (Original post)
cthulu2016 Dec 2012 OP
Uncle Joe Dec 2012 #1
SidDithers Dec 2012 #2
Panasonic Dec 2012 #4
SidDithers Dec 2012 #6
Panasonic Dec 2012 #10
SidDithers Dec 2012 #11
Panasonic Dec 2012 #12
muriel_volestrangler Dec 2012 #13
Panasonic Dec 2012 #17
SidDithers Dec 2012 #19
Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2012 #14
SidDithers Dec 2012 #16
unblock Dec 2012 #3
Berlum Dec 2012 #5
SidDithers Dec 2012 #7
dmr Dec 2012 #8
cthulu2016 Dec 2012 #9
dmr Dec 2012 #21
DisgustipatedinCA Dec 2012 #15
Marr Dec 2012 #18
XRubicon Dec 2012 #20

Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 02:35 PM

1. Whatever happened to Pronsyrup?

I haven't seen him in a while.

Thanks for the thread, cthulu.

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Response to Uncle Joe (Reply #1)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 02:37 PM

2. Tombstoned at DU2...

he should come back, though. There are quite a few posters who ate pizza at DU2 who are back under new names at DU3.

Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #2)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 02:45 PM

4. *peer*

 

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Response to Panasonic (Reply #4)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 02:46 PM

6. Something you'd like to get off your chest?...nt

Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #6)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 04:32 PM

10. Besides the obvious answer I have for you?

 

No.

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Response to Panasonic (Reply #10)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 06:30 PM

11. Look. It's common knowledge that you've been here before...

I've had the same DU identity for more than 10 years.

How many have you had in that time? He'll, how many different identities have you had since DU3 went live.

Personally, I don't think it's fair to the thousands of DUers who've never been tombstoned, that a poster like you can just start over again every time you get banned.

Do zombies deserve to have their previous identities kept secret? How about a zombie that ran another board where posters shat upon DU and DUers for years, with the ferocity of teabaggers? That's a question that I'm struggling with. My gut tells me no. Zombies don't deserve a fresh start. DU3 is all about transparency. IMO, they should be responsible for what they posted, regardless of when it was posted, or what name they were using at the time. But my gut hasn't convinced my head and fingers of that yet.



Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #11)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 07:37 PM

12. Three identities.

 

And you already know my original. All I ask you to do is leave me alone, and I'll leave you alone.

Now I gotta go pick up my son and give him an extra hug.

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Response to Panasonic (Reply #12)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 07:44 PM

13. Leave him alone? You replied to his post

when he had said nothing about you at all. I still can't work out what "*peer*" is supposed to mean, apart from "look at me".

I don't know what your original identity was; what was it, since you were keen to be part of the discussion about DU zombies?

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #13)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 07:59 PM

17. Sorry, I can't tell you that - that would be a PPR for me

 

and I am not quite ready to do that yet.

But Skinner and Sid pretty much nailed me as to my original identity.

If you want to know, ask them.

I have told very few DU'ers that I respect and love my original identity - and many know who I am via Facebook.

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Response to Panasonic (Reply #12)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 08:33 PM

19. Three? I think you're being less than honest...

There are 4 mentioned in this post, and that doesn't include your current one, or the one you were using right before this one.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1240&pid=87884

I stumbled on that one when I searched anti-alec in Meta as a keyword, instead of poster name, by accident.

I'm done. It's not my intention to hound you personally. But my point is that posters at DU should be responsible for all of the content they've put on DU, regardless of the account used to post it.

Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #2)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 07:48 PM

14. Doesn't look TS'd

IIRC, he was suspended but never came back after suspension.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=user_profiles&u_id=188165

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Reply #14)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 07:59 PM

16. Faulty memory, then...

I knew he hadn't posted at DU3, but I thought I had remembered pizza at DU2.

My apologies to HFPS for believing him dead.

Sid

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 02:42 PM

3. ah, so some correlations are not causal?

or few are?

correlations are indeed mere statistics, but they can hint at causality; and if supported by a hypothesis that provides some reason to believe there might actually be a causal relation, that is, as you indicate, a reasonable basis for further research.

i doubt very much that anyone is suggesting that ssris or video games or whatever has some relationship to mass shootings without having SOME intuitive reason for thinking that there's a causal relationship.

so far the only one i've seen that doesn't seem to have any basis for a causal relationship is that one post talking about obesity/hfcs....

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 02:45 PM

5. Eat all the GMO mutant HFCS crapola you want

It's your bod & brainpan. You have right to rot them.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 02:56 PM

7. DU rec...nt

Sid

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 03:18 PM

8. You forgot to add a link. It says to click on your state

for more information.

Thanks for posting this.

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Response to dmr (Reply #8)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 03:21 PM

9. I addd the gun one. The other

I don't have anymore. (Google image)

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #9)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 09:51 PM

21. Thanks!

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 07:49 PM

15. I believe statisticians have found a corollary you may be interested in

As it turns out, bullets fired from guns can kill innocent people, even very small children. While you're busy bathing John McCain in a vat of corn syrup or whatever, we should be looking at stricter gun control, since it's been proven over and over that this saves lives.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 08:02 PM

18. It's oversized portions and sedentary lifestyles.

The vast majority of the time, it really is a simple case of people eating too much easy, tasty food and moving way too little. Portions have grown larger and larger over time, junk food more and more accessible, and people less and less active.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 08:35 PM

20. Very interesting

I would like to see some data on the likelihood of deaths due to injury from fire arms in obese people who live in countries with automatic weapons vs obese people who live in countries without automatic weapons.

Hey, I think I am on to something here.... how about deaths due to injury from fire arms in video gamers who live in countries with automatic weapons vs video gamers who live in countries without automatic weapons.

Where can I find data like this?

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