PPP: Newt leads final night of polling by a 40-26 margin

[RandySF]

NOTE: That 16% for Santorum could be another well of support for Gingrich if those people change their votes tomorrow.


Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich heads into South Carolina election day as the clear front runner in the state: he's now polling at 37% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Rick Santorum, and 14% for Ron Paul.

Gingrich's lead has actually increased in the wake of his ex-wife's controversial interview with ABC. Although one night poll results should always be interpreted with caution, he led the final night of the field period by a 40-26 margin. One thing that continues to work to his advantage are the debates. 60% of primary voters report having watched the onelast night, and Gingrich has a 46-23 lead with those folks.

The other reason his ex-wife's interview isn't causing him much trouble is that there's a lot of skepticism about it. Only 31% of voters say they think her accusations are truewhile 35% think they are false and 34% are unsure. 51% of voters say that they have 'no concerns' about what came out in the interview.




http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1201023.pdf

[DonCoquixote]

1. I would never root for newt, but

If Mitt loses this one, he is going to have to make a hard case for the egneral election. Of course, Florida is set to coronate him, both in their primary and in the convention, but it could make a fine opprintunity to do damage.

Of course, if Rick Scott decides to court Tea Party types, especially he he knows they are his only defense against Jeb Bush trying to take back the Governor's mansion, all bets are off. Jeb Bush still acts like Florida is his kingdom, and he felt quiote snubbed that Rock defeated Mccollum, Jeb's hand picked, hand puppet for governor. If Rick comes out for Newt, there will be an army of Dixie types and freepers that will gladly tapdance barefoot on broken Glass to support it.

[Obamacare]

11. I don't know

Florida isn't completely out of reach for Newt. Remember, Mittens had a huge lead in SC coming off the NH win. All Newt has to do now is keep the pressure on Mittens and release negative ads. At this point I would bring up the dog on top of car gate and sit back watch Mittens popularity plummet in FL. Newt, can definitely win FL.

[DonCoquixote]

13. save for one thing

Jeb Bush has crowned him, and what he wants, he gets.

The only wild card, is Rick Scott, who is more to Newt than the Jeb.

[Motown_Johnny]

44. Newt had a huge lead in FL until everyone thought Romney won both

Iowa and New Hampshire


If Newt wins SC then we have 3 different winners in the first 3 contests and FL is wide open for either Newt or Mitt.

ROBME does have more money and that is a huge advantage in those expensive media markets but that doesn't mean it is decisive.

I just want to see more blood. I think both are fatally flawed candidates and the longer this goes on the more evidence we have to support my hypothesis.

[joshcryer]

2. Wow, thanks for linking directly to the results. That's utterly fascinating.

[JDPriestly]

3. Interesting. When asked to choose between a tax cheat, a money-hungry cheat or a marriage-cheat, a

sex-hungry cheat, the Republicans in S. Carolina appear to prefer the marriage-cheat. In either case, they get a cheat.

[ZM90]

4. Good let the hate flow through you Newt. Now fufill your destiny and take Romney's place as the

frontrunner. *insert other Star Wars quotes by Darth Sidious here*

[pinboy3niner]

5. He won't become the frontrunner

But he will keep the infighting going, which is great for dems. I'm lovin' it!

[oh08dem]

6. Romney, Romney, Romney, can't you see

you'll never win the presidency, and they just hate your boring ways this is why Newt leads and you're so lame.

[hlthe2b]

7. Oh, Gawd, he'll be even more insufferable...

I can't stand Romney, but I detest Newt with a white hot intensity.

[pinboy3niner]

9. The more insufferable, the better

If he can deny Romney a victory in SC and keep the clown show going, it's win/win for dems.

[arely staircase]

12. yeah, this needs to drag out for a long nasty time. nt

[Art_from_Ark]

16. That makes two of us!

Romney is bad, but Newt? Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!

[TwilightGardener]

22. I agree with you on this. I don't think Romney is crazy, at any rate.

Squirm-inducingly weird and smarmy, but not nutz. Newt is nutz. The thought of him winning the nomination would keep me up at night.

[dimbear]

8. Seriously, folks, the biggest story of political redemption since Nixon.

That one worked out super.

[Raine]

10. As long as the keep the freak show going

I'm a happy camper.

[sellitman]

17. This GOP game show is the best thing to happen to Dems since the 2008 election

[Jackpine Radical]

45. And maybe the 1932 election, now that you mention it.

[City Lights]

18. Same here!

[DCBob]

14. amazing turn of events.

I didnt think this could have been possible. GOPer primary voters are sure an unpredictable bunch. Although this does allow the clown show to continue which is some ways is good, it also allows Gingrich and the others to have a free national platform to bash Obama and the Democrats. Im not sure on balance if this helps us or hurts us.

[The Wielding Truth]

39. We have to believe that there are more decent people who believe in the golden rule than brain wash-

ed cretins who boo it.

What we don't hear is that the republican party is like any national disaster. It's horrific, does a lot of damage and luckily usually involves less people when happening than the news coverage would lead you to believe. The rational people of our country are more like 75% and these weak minded fools are like 25%.
We have to get out the vote for sanity, national common good,civil liberties,and economic justice.

Sane voters realize that words and actions have meaning and consequence. All these wild nonsensical debates have shown the 75% what an incompetent lie spewing bunch of fascist glory seeking empty souled muck remains in the bucket bottom of the 25% Republican party.

Yes. I and many more are too disgusted by this party's words and actions to hold back and give them another pass.

[DCBob]

41. "Weak minded fools" appear to be the majority of the GOPer primary voters.

maybe the whole lot.

[The Wielding Truth]

42. I don't incude rational people in any group who would vote Republican in this Pres. race.

[quaker bill]

15. Perhaps we will see what kind of fight Romney has

Newt was the first Speaker censured and fined $300,000. There is plenty of very real and documented mud for slinging on both sides of this one. One of them will eventually win, but it could get really ugly from here, and it has already been nasty. If Newt wins SC, then "you ain't seen nothin' yet".

[spanone]

19. depends on the poll

Sampling of S.C. primary polls
Public Policy Polling

Gingrich 35%

Romney 29%

Santorum 15%

Paul 15%

Undecided 5%

NOTE: Survey of 836 likely GOP voters Wednesday and Thursday. Margin of error plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Clemson University poll

Gingrich 32%

Romney 26%

Paul 11%

Santorum 9%

NOTE: Survey of 429 likely GOP voters Wednesday and Thursday. Margin of error plus or minus 4.73 percentage points.


NBC/Marist

Romney 34%

Gingrich 24%

Paul 16%

Santorum 14%

Perry 4%

Undecided 8%

None of the above 1%

NOTE: Survey of 684 likely GOP voters Monday and Tuesday. Margin of error plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Compare that with this poll taken Sunday, before the debates in Myrtle Beach and North Charleston


Monmouth University Poll

Romney 33%

Gingrich 22%

Santorum 14%

Paul 12%

Rick Perry 6%

Jon Huntsman 4%

Undecided 7%

None of the above 2%

NOTE: Survey of 963 likely GOP voters from Jan. 12 to Sunday. Margin of error plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/2012/jan/21/who-will-it-beits-republican-primary-day-in-south/

[Bjorn Against]

21. All polls early in the week had Romney with a solid lead

All polls coming out late in the week show that Gingrich now has a solid lead and Romney has dropped a huge amount in just the last three days. I think Romney lost his inevitability when it was announced that he lost Iowa, he should have never declared victory over eight votes that he should have known could have been lost in the canvass. To try to spin a 34 vote loss as a tie when earlier he thought an eight vote victory was a clear win did not help him either, he would have been better off conceding than trying to call a loss a tie. All of the polls that showed him in the lead came out before his embarrassing loss in Iowa, I think that small shift in votes hurt him far more than many people realize.

[still_one]

31. except the ones giving it to romney are old polls, the newer ones show the shift to gingrich /nt

[B Calm]

20. Woohoo!! Go Newt Go

I love it when our vast liberal conspiracy plan is working!

I hope they continue to attack each other right up to the republican convention.

[Iliyah]

23. It seems like

PPP is in my opinion is the most accurate poll to date. That said, you still have Rove and his minions in the mist and anything can happen b/c they are your ultimate cheaters. If the race is close I wouldn't be surprised that they would pull another Iowa.

The higher ups of the gop party knows that Newt, Nationawide is not electable. Their best shot is Mittens or someone else like Christie. Even with that, Pres O will win.

[AlbertCat]

26. The higher ups of the gop party knows that Newt, Nationawide is not electable

Bingo!

Why would anybody think the GOP cares what its own "people" vote for?

[Renew Deal]

24. So much for that late night Steve Schmidt was talking about

I don't blame him though. I wouldn't have bet my ass on a blowout like this.

[AlbertCat]

25. 35% think they are false and 34% are unsure.

These must be the same people who think Adam & Eve road dinosaurs to church.

"51% of voters say that they have 'no concerns' about what came out in the interview. "

After all, she's only a woman! Besides, Newt didn't fly to Argentina to "hike the ol' Appalachian Trail".

[BumRushDaShow]

28. These are probably also the same people

who believe that President Obama was born in Kenya too!

They live in a universe that is parallel and opposite of the one that we inhabit, where their universe and ours have phased just enough for us to be infected with theirs!

[JJW]

27. Who cares which clown wins

Those three freaks are a nightmare. Only difference would be Paul and he's a bit crazy too.

[still_one]

30. paul is a racist who was and is oppossed to the Civil Rights Act /nt

[aaaaaa5a]

33. With his anti-civil rights record, I'm shocked he is not running stronger down there. nt

[still_one]

47. Because gingrich is a younger racist with more energy than Paul. / nt

[Mopar151]

40. Ron Paul is as crazy as the rest!

He's just had a lifetime of practice at looking sort of sane from a distance.

[still_one]

29. So you have gingrich playing the race card, romney saying corporations are people, paul against

civil rights, and santorum believing that we should be a theocracy

I think that pretty much encapsulates the republican party today

[marmar]

32. Wait a minute.....Three days ago I read that Mittens was going to run away with it.

[totodeinhere]

34. Bring it on Newt. I would love to see President Obama destroy you in the election. n/t

[Narkos]

35. I, for one, am ecstatic!!!

[madmax]

36. Bottom line who has the best chance

to beat Obama. That's all that concerns me regarding this freak show they call the Republican Primary. The top two contenders Willard and Newt scare the hell out of me.

I thought Newt would be the easiest to beat but, now it seems that the 'con'servatives really don't give a damn about family values after all.

[jmowreader]

46. The teabaggers don't care about family values, that's for sure

The only thing they seem to care about is that the candidate's a white non-Mormon.

Newt Gingrich is going straight to Hell on 7th, 9th and 10th Commandment violations, but that's okay just so long as he cuts their taxes and gets rid of the health care reform act.

[olegramps]

37. I am not surprised. The Southern hypocritical racists are voting their form of "Family Values."

They are defending long standing family traditions. Its an easy choice between some uppity Northern establishment candidate and a good ole Georgia boy whose blood runs deep with KKK genes. Hell, they think "Deliverance" was a Walt Disney family values movie. Surprised! Not in the least. I lived in the South.

[neverforget]

38. One week ago Reuters/Ipsos poll: Romney opens 21 pt lead in SC

Poor Mitt. What a difference a week makes! The Republican base doesn't like you.

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-opens-21-point-lead-south-carolina-reuters-230825329.html

Romney opens 21-point lead in South Carolina: Reuters/Ipsos poll
ReutersBy Jeff Mason | Reuters – Sat, Jan 14, 2012

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has opened a wide lead over his rivals in the South Carolina primary election race, trouncing Newt Gingrich and gaining momentum in his march toward the party's nomination, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.

--snip--
Voters in South Carolina - who have favored Republicans in nine of the last 10 presidential elections - appear to have shrugged off attacks on Romney by rivals who accuse him of killing jobs as a private equity executive for Bain Capital in the 1990s.

The poll showed 37 percent of South Carolina Republican voters back Romney. Congressman Ron Paul and former Senator Rick Santorum tied for second place with 16 percent support.

Gingrich, a former speaker of the House of Representatives, has fallen far back after holding a strong lead in South Carolina in December. He was in fourth place at 12 percent in the Reuters/Ipsos poll.
--snip--

[Liberal_in_LA]

43. omg.

[aaaaaa5a]

48. PPP is the best poll out there.

This isn't the first time this election cycle they have been very accurate. I view them as a very reliable pollster.


BTW... Nate Silver looked at their data and concluded they did not have a democratic lean (unlike a pollster like Rasmussen with a very heavy GOP lean). PPP is very accurate.