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Thu Dec 6, 2012, 02:46 PM

Just curious - what were your thoughts about Obama's win vs. Romney's chances

Personally I think it was the media and especially Faux News who tried their hardest to make the election look close. After the conventions it seemed just about everyday there was a new poll out there that said 'Romney is close' and 'it's a tight race'. Yet everyday I looked at Electoral Vote.com and not once did Obama ever go below 270 Electoral votes. I mean just because it's 47%-45% in a national poll that doesn't mean it's a close race. It's all down to the electoral votes and those pesky swing states.

So be honest, did you think Obama was a sure win or did you have doubts. Just interested in how people perceived this election. I remember in 2008 after the VP debates that it was pretty much in the bag for Obama but honestly, I don't think I ever doubted one day that Obama could lose this. Maybe be a bit closer in the votes but I always felt Obama had what it takes to win. And mind you I'm no Nate Silvers, just someone who has watched years of election returns.

So vote her for your thoughts on the past election.
24 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
I was absolutely shocked Obama won at all
0 (0%)
I think if it was one of the other known GOP contenders that Obama could have lost (ie Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich, Santorum, Cain, Huntsman, Paul)
1 (4%)
I think if one of the GOPers who sat out this election had run, Obama could have lost (ie Jeb Bush, Christie, Rubio)
1 (4%)
I was a bit nervous leading up to the convention but afterwards felt Obama had it in the bag.
0 (0%)
I had some doubts after the first debate and Obama's poor performance.
6 (25%)
I thought the race was going to be close but that Obama would win in the end.
6 (25%)
I wasn't sure until after Hurricane Sandy when Obama came out looking Presidential
0 (0%)
I had no doubts whatsoever that Obama would win.
8 (33%)
Other (please post and let us know)
2 (8%)
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

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Reply Just curious - what were your thoughts about Obama's win vs. Romney's chances (Original post)
LynneSin Dec 2012 OP
Ohio Joe Dec 2012 #1
LynneSin Dec 2012 #3
uponit7771 Dec 2012 #2
LynneSin Dec 2012 #6
Scuba Dec 2012 #20
frogmarch Dec 2012 #21
CJCRANE Dec 2012 #4
The Velveteen Ocelot Dec 2012 #5
renate Dec 2012 #17
AndyTiedye Dec 2012 #7
LynneSin Dec 2012 #8
Journeyman Dec 2012 #9
LynneSin Dec 2012 #11
Journeyman Dec 2012 #18
warrior1 Dec 2012 #10
TrogL Dec 2012 #12
LynneSin Dec 2012 #15
democrattotheend Dec 2012 #13
Uncle Joe Dec 2012 #14
GoCubsGo Dec 2012 #16
sufrommich Dec 2012 #19

Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 02:49 PM

1. Other

I felt certain President Obam would win but was surprised at how many voted for rmoney. Far closer then I expected.

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Response to Ohio Joe (Reply #1)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 02:51 PM

3. I still believe that Romney really only got about 43-45% of the votes

and that the election theft in states like Ohio, Florida and a few others probably shaved off a few million votes. However thanks to high voter turnout we still managed to win states like Ohio & Florida.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 02:49 PM

2. Other: I never ever trusted the people who lied us into a war, they do that shit they'll do anything

...so I was always nervus of an overt theft with suppression of minorit votes for justification

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 02:52 PM

6. To be honest if we lost it would have been for just that reason

and that if all the votes were counted properly we'd find that Obama won by a much larger percentage.

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:59 PM

20. +1

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 04:03 PM

21. That's my Other too. nt

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 02:51 PM

4. When an Irish betting firm paid out two days early...

on an Obama win, that was a sign that things would probably turn out okay.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 02:51 PM

5. I was nervously hopeful.

I'd been following Nate Silver and Intrade, and things looked good, but 2004 taught me that it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings and she was just warming up. I thought he'd win but I was also worried about what effect all the voter suppression shenanigans might have. So, unlike the Romney entourage, I was biting my fingernails a bit until about 9:00 CST when the blue tsunami started rolling in. And I'm still just gobsmacked that the GOPers were so tightly sealed in their bubble of epistemic closure (as Krugman put it) that they truly didn't see it coming. When Karl Rove's brain shorted out on live TV - that was priceless.

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #5)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:35 PM

17. yup, I kept thinking of 2004 as well

Like others (almost all? everyone?) here, I was 99.9% sure that Obama would win an honest and fair election. What I wasn't sure about was whether the election would be honest and fair.

So I didn't start to relax until it became evident that the GOP hadn't done enough dirty work in the swing states and that the west coast would put Obama over the top.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:03 PM

7. I Was Sure Obama Would Win an Honest Election

I was not at all sure what would happen in Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin.

Obviously some kind of fix was planned (see KKKarl Rove's Election Night performance on Faux), but it didn't say fixed.

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Response to AndyTiedye (Reply #7)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:04 PM

8. Agree 100%

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:04 PM

9. I stated often during the campaign that no amount of money would help Romney market a bad productů

I knew Obama had a number of negatives to work through (the economy, for one), but Romney had more and greater negatives, and I believed those would eventually prove fatal to his chances. And I never thought money would help Romney. All the money thrown into marketing "New Coke" made no dent whatsoever in people's perceptions. Same with Romney. Bad ideas cannot be made more palatable by simply saturating the airwaves with their repetition.

I never had a doubt Obama would win. The Republican 'Clown College' selection impelled his victory; Romney/Ryan's piss-poor performance ensured it.

And as an added bonus, I believe the 2012 election has put an end to any further "serious" consideration of Paul Ryan as a national leader.

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Response to Journeyman (Reply #9)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:06 PM

11. Karl Rove and $300 million

nuff said!

I could spend all the money in the world trying to convince you that I could fry up cow dung and serve it as food. But in the end you'd still realize that it was cow shit and still wouldn't try it.

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Response to LynneSin (Reply #11)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:46 PM

18. John Connally outspent all other candidates in 1980 and garnered only 1 delegate . . .

the "$11M delegate," Ada Mills of Arkansas.

Cow pies is cow pies, even when festooned with expensive ribbons and bows.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:08 PM

12. If a reasonable republican (eg. Jeb Bush) had wanted to run and survived the primaries...

...he might have had a chance.

None of them wanted to run and the Tea Partiers would have called them RINO's and shut them down.

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Response to TrogL (Reply #12)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:15 PM

15. I keep wondering about that

Last edited Thu Dec 6, 2012, 04:14 PM - Edit history (1)

I think it would have been a closer race with someone like Christie, Jeb Bush or even Rubio but that there were 2 reasons why these people waited.

First, even with the economy hurting, Obama was still a force to be reckoned with that would bring very large voter turnout and would keep it an extremely tough race. Plus no one wants to be a 'loser presidential candidate' running again a second time. Lately it seems candidates have one shot of running for president as the party nominee and if they lose they are done.

Second is that the Tea Party still had alot of sway in the party. I think if Romney ran his race as a moderate he might have had a chance beating Obama; however, a moderate would have never gotten past the primaries. But after this election the Tea Party power has been greatly weakened. Extremist candidates like Akin and Mourdock lost their race especially painful knowing that Mourdock ousted a long-serving GOP senator in the primaries. Many Tea PArty representatives who won in 2010 house races lost in 2012. And the Tea Party had no sway on the presidential election whatsoever. In fact they probably ended up hurting Romney more because he had to be 2 different types of candidate - one to appease the tea party and another to appeal to the moderates & undecideds.

If the GOP continues to sink in 2014 the I think we'll start seeing the Tea Party go belly up which will allow more moderate candidates to do well in the GOP primaries.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:11 PM

13. I got nervous after the first debate

But by Election Day I felt pretty confident that he was going to win.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:15 PM

14. I voted "no doubt" but it was more like "very little doubt."

Thanks for the thread, LynneSin.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:29 PM

16. I knew the President would win, especially after the 47% comment.

That was kind of the straw that broke the camel's back for Romney. He had been saying so many stupid things all along, and I don't think his refusal to release his taxes helped, either. Nor, did Akin, Mourdock, and all the other sexist assholes.

I expected it to be closer. I even expected there might be an attempted theft, although I think the fact that the Obama campaign lawyered up so heavily gave the repugs cold feet. So did the fact that people, especially in the electronic media, were pointing out the possibility that such thing could happen. That video of the electronic voting machine giving Obama votes to Romney also helped stifle it.

What surprised me was how quickly the whole night ended. I figured I would be up all night. like 2000. But, around 11:00 it was over, just like that. It seemed like the announcement of the winner came out of the blue, almost an afterthought. It was kind of weird.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 03:49 PM

19. I was nervous after the first debate,but

Nate Silver kept me sane and relatively calm.

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