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Wed Dec 5, 2012, 06:08 PM

We have 2 years.. Which representatives are the weakest 34 republicans

234-201 currently

Bachmann almost lost this time.. that leaves 33

(assuming we can hold our own)

Axelrod & Co need to pour their efforts into this so we can re-take the house in '14

The senate will be a tough slog without Obama at the top of the ticket

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Reply We have 2 years.. Which representatives are the weakest 34 republicans (Original post)
SoCalDem Dec 2012 OP
elleng Dec 2012 #1
maxsolomon Dec 2012 #2
bluestate10 Dec 2012 #12
rucky Dec 2012 #13
proud2BlibKansan Dec 2012 #3
Panasonic Dec 2012 #6
Chan790 Dec 2012 #4
SoCalDem Dec 2012 #7
Panasonic Dec 2012 #5
Sinistrous Dec 2012 #8
joeybee12 Dec 2012 #9
SoCalDem Dec 2012 #10
Staph Dec 2012 #11
Sen. Walter Sobchak Dec 2012 #14
former9thward Dec 2012 #15
Dark n Stormy Knight Dec 2012 #16
davidn3600 Dec 2012 #17
kentuck Dec 2012 #18
RomneyLies Dec 2012 #19
muriel_volestrangler Dec 2012 #20

Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 06:12 PM

1. More than Axelrod,

DCCC must be willing to support, financially and otherwise, challengers to sitting repugs, whether the challengers are 'favorites,' or already have a lot of cash. Unfortunately money is the name of the game, to provide exposure to those who dare challenge tptb.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 06:17 PM

2. We could start by actually running somone against Boehner

he ran unopposed in 2012.

i know that district is filled with angry white knuckleheaded suburbanites, but there's got to be a way to dislodge Boehner.

i suggest an attractive, articulate woman - perhaps a Miami of Ohio prof.?

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Response to maxsolomon (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 07:49 PM

12. I would throw the young Veteran that ran against him during the 2010 midterms

into the ring again. He has been through a campaign once and didn't lose badly during a big year for republicans.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #12)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 08:13 PM

13. Justin Coussoule

I liked him a lot, but Bohner wins 60/40 no matter who's running against him.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 06:17 PM

3. Mine is an idiot who ran unopposed.

Skinny dipped in the Sea of Galilee. It would have been easy to beat him.

Kevin Yoder. KS 3rd district.

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Response to proud2BlibKansan (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 06:33 PM

6. Have your local party come up with a decent candidate to kick Yoder's ass in '14.

 

And he can use the footage of Yoder skinnydipping at Sea of Gaililee.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 06:18 PM

4. While I think targeting twice what we need is a good idea...

I want to make sure you know we only need 17 seats to a majority 218-217.

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Response to Chan790 (Reply #4)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 07:02 PM

7. I'd like to see US having their "edge"

razor-thin is always dicey

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 06:32 PM

5. Republicans should NOT be allowed to run unopposed.

 

They need a Democratic challenger or third party challenger. I don't care. I just want the Republicans to face challenges and have to pay millions out of their warchest to defend their seat.

Boehner happens to be one of them - there ought to be a strong Democratic challenger for his district. I dont care if it's Mickey Mouse, Judas Priest, or Tom Jones, just need someone to run the damn district as long as they challenge that person.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 07:03 PM

8. Mathematically, if we hold all our current seats, we need to turn out only 17 rethugs.

201 + 17 = 218

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 07:05 PM

9. Actually, I think the Senate is in our favor this time...

Think more Repukes up than Dems.

Also, Obama didn't have coattails...Akin and Mourdoch would have lost even with a Rmoney victory.

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Response to joeybee12 (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 07:20 PM

10. They may have more "at risk, but

I don;t see us taking any of theirs away.

We will probably lose Johnson and we have others who will probably lose as well..

I can see us in danger of losing LA, SD, UT, CO, MT. AR, WV, and AK

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 07:42 PM

11. My Republican rep is running for the Senate.

I would love to see a Democratic replacement for Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia. She's not just a worthless Republican, she's a worthless rep in general. In her 12 years in Congress, she has sponsored very few pieces of legislation, but rather she co-signs after someone else does the heavy lifting.

I'm afraid that she views public service as a personal right and a part of her family heritage. Her father was a former governor of West Virginia who ended up in federal prison after pleading guilty to five felony counts of bribery and extortion. In Shelley's case, I wonder how far the apple fell from this particular tree.

She announced a few weeks ago that she would be running for the Republican nomination to replace Jay Rockefeller in the US Senate.



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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 08:34 PM

14. Dana Tyrone Rohrabacher

The Republicans have left this guy for roadkill half a dozen times, yet we always find a more severely unelectable candidate than before to run against him. Bored millionaires "taking one for the team" rather than vicious partisans in it to win.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 08:44 PM

15. Axelrod does not do House races.

Not enough money. In 2014 he will be working for one of the people running for President in 2016.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 09:29 PM

16. Joe Pitts, Rep from PA. He is one of the worst and he only lost by .7 percent.

PITTS, JOSEPH R. (REP) 19,662 47.7%

STRADER, ARYANNA C. (DEM) 19,377 47.0%

It was one more rural county that did it: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1907856

This one has got to go.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 09:48 PM

17. It's very difficult to go against the political cycle

A lot of these districts are gerrymandered. We're simply outnumbered in many of them. And we can't change that until after the next census in 2020.

That 2010 election is going to haunt us for a decade.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 09:58 PM

18. We would only need to win 17 to have the majority.

So if we could defeat half of those 34, we would have the House.

Thanks for this post. This is where we should all be focusing.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 09:59 PM

19. We only need 17.

 

They go down 17 to 217, we go up 17 to 218.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 06:48 AM

20. From a public spreadsheet of all the House results

(which is still not final - the 'X' in a column at the right indicates if a result is complete), the 34 Republicans with the smallest percentage margin over a Democrat:


State CD# PVI Winner Party Dem Vte GOP Vte Other V Dem % GOP % Other % Dem Mar Final? Prez W Dem % over GOP

Indiana 9 R+9 Todd Young R* 132,848 165,332 - 44.55% 55.45% 0.00% -32,484 x Romney -10.89%
Montana AL R+7 Steve Daines R 204,939 255,468 19,333 42.72% 53.25% 4.03% -50,529 x Romney -10.53%
Michigan 7 R+3 Tim Walberg R* 136,849 169,668 11,552 43.02% 53.34% 3.63% -32,819 x Romney -10.32%
Indiana 8 R+8 Larry Bucshon R* 122,325 151,533 10,134 43.07% 53.36% 3.57% -29,208 x Romney -10.28%
California 25 R+5 Buck McKeon R* 106,982 129,593 - 45.22% 54.78% 0.00% -22,611 TBD -9.56%
New Jersey 3 R+2 Jon Runyan R* 145,509 174,257 4,124 44.93% 53.80% 1.27% -28,748 TBD -8.88%
Texas 14 R+8 Randy Weber R 109,264 130,937 4,647 44.63% 53.48% 1.90% -21,673 Romney -8.85%
Iowa 3 R+1 Tom Latham R* 168,632 202,000 16,210 43.59% 52.22% 4.19% -33,368 x Obama -8.63%
Michigan 3 R+5 Justin Amash R* 144,108 171,675 10,500 44.17% 52.62% 3.22% -27,567 x Romney -8.45%
Minnesota 2 R+2 John Kline R* 164,338 193,587 521 45.85% 54.01% 0.15% -29,249 x Obama -8.16%
Iowa 4 R+4 Steve King R* 169,470 200,063 8,350 44.85% 52.94% 2.21% -30,593 x Romney -8.10%
North Carolina 8 R+12 Richard Hudson R 137,139 160,695 4,446 45.37% 53.16% 1.47% -23,556 Romney -7.79%
Virginia 2 R+5 Scott Rigell R* 142,548 166,231 443 46.10% 53.76% 0.14% -23,683 Obama -7.66%
Nevada 3 EVEN Joe Heck R* 116,823 137,244 18,456 42.87% 50.36% 6.77% -20,421 x TBD -7.49%
Florida 16 R+5 Vern Buchanan R* 161,929 187,147 - 46.39% 53.61% 0.00% -25,218 x Romney -7.22%
New York 19 EVEN Chris Gibson R* 120,661 138,657 - 46.53% 53.47% 0.00% -17,996 Obama -6.94%
New York 11 R+4 Mike Grimm R* 82,401 94,102 1,782 46.22% 52.78% 1.00% -11,701 TBD -6.56%
Ohio 6 R+5 Bill Johnson R* 144,444 164,536 - 46.75% 53.25% 0.00% -20,092 x Romney -6.50%
Michigan 11 R+4 K Bentivolio R 158,879 181,788 17,472 44.36% 50.76% 4.88% -22,909 x Romney -6.40%
North Carolina 9 R+10 Rob Pittenger R 171,503 194,537 9,650 45.65% 51.78% 2.57% -23,034 Romney -6.13%
Florida 2 R+3 S Southerland R* 157,634 175,856 228 47.24% 52.70% 0.07% -18,222 x Romney -5.46%
California 10 R+5 Jeff Denham R* 98,934 110,265 - 47.29% 52.71% 0.00% -11,331 TBD -5.42%
Ohio 16 R+5 Jim Renacci R* 170,600 185,165 - 47.95% 52.05% 0.00% -14,565 x Romney -4.09%
Kentucky 6 R+7 Andy Barr R 141,438 153,223 8,340 46.68% 50.57% 2.75% -11,785 x Romney -3.89%
Pennsylvania 12 R+6 Keith Rothfus R 161,397 173,340 - 48.22% 51.78% 0.00% -11,943 Romney -3.57%
New York 23 R+3 Thomas Reed R* 124,527 133,697 - 48.22% 51.78% 0.00% -9,170 Romney -3.55%
Florida 10 R+7 Daniel Webster R* 153,574 164,649 46 48.25% 51.73% 0.01% -11,075 x Romney -3.48%
Colorado 6 R+1 Mike Coffman R* 156,929 163,922 22,039 45.77% 47.81% 6.43% -6,993 TBD -2.04%
Nebraska 2 R+6 Lee Terry R* 129,767 133,964 - 49.20% 50.80% 0.00% -4,197 x Romney -1.59%
New York 27 R+7 Chris Collins R 154,898 159,773 - 49.23% 50.77% 0.00% -4,875 Romney -1.55%
Indiana 2 R+7 Jackie Walorski R 130,113 134,033 9,329 47.58% 49.01% 3.41% -3,920 x Romney -1.43%
Minnesota 6 R+8 Michele Bachman R* 174,944 179,240 969 49.26% 50.47% 0.27% -4,296 x Romney -1.21%
Michigan 1 R+4 Dan Benishek R* 165,179 167,060 14,798 47.60% 48.14% 4.26% -1,881 x Romney -0.54%
Illinois 13 D+1 Rodney Davis R 136,032 137,034 21,319 46.21% 46.55% 7.24% -1,002 x TBD -0.34%


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdHZCbzJocGtxYkR6OTdZbzZwRUFvS3c#gid=0

As others have pointed out, you only actually need to flip half of those. So that would mean winning all of them with a Republican margin of 6.5% or less.

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