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Wed Dec 5, 2012, 10:11 AM

FirstRead: Republicans Ready to Fold?

*** Know when to hold’em, know when to fold’em: More Republicans and conservatives are coming to the conclusion that they have a bad hand to play in the fiscal battle with Democrats and the Obama White House (see John Podhoretz in today’s New York Post and the Washington Examiner’s Conn Carroll). And what does a smart poker player usually do when holding a bad hand? You fold to live another day. It’s what Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) pushed for last week, which got universally poo-poo’d by the GOP leadership. Now? The New York Times reports that GOP members and leaders are considering extending the Bush-era tax cuts for the middle class -- but resuming the larger fight over the budget and spending when it’s time to raise the debt ceiling. “There’s always better ground, but you have to get there,” Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX) told the Times. The good news here: If you don’t want to go off the cliff, then it’s clear Republicans won’t dig in; they are talking about a way out. The bad news: Such a move only postpones the real fight. If Republicans do pursue this path, they’ll have a stronger hand to play politically than they currently do now (because the middle-class tax cuts would be off the table). But the White House would also still have some cards to play (over the eventual tax rates in any kind of tax reform, the estate tax, and a willingness to budge on entitlements). Remember, the debt ceiling standoff in July 2011 was bad of the president, but it was worse for the GOP’s brand.


http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/05/15698744-first-thoughts-know-when-to-holdem-know-when-to-foldem?lite

I am a little bit concerned (and please note my post count and length of membership here if you think I am a troll) that we could win the battle but lose the war here. If the president gets the middle class tax cut without the cut for the top 2%, what is to stop the Republicans from then extorting either the cut on the top 2% or big cuts to entitlements when the debt ceiling is due to be raised? I have been reading David Corn's book, and while the president's willingness to accept an eventually 2 year hike in the Medicare eligibility age and changes to the COLA format are disturbing, the Republicans wanted far larger and more fundamental cuts. What is to stop them from extorting either one?

I am starting to think that a deal to avert the "cliff" that includes raising the debt ceiling is a better option, since the president arguably has more leverage now, with the tax hikes and defense cuts scheduled to hit if he does nothing. If they send him a bill that cuts taxes for the middle class and restores the defense cuts, it kind of puts him in a box, because if he signs that he gives up a lot of leverage for the debt ceiling fight.

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Reply FirstRead: Republicans Ready to Fold? (Original post)
democrattotheend Dec 2012 OP
RomneyLies Dec 2012 #1
1StrongBlackMan Dec 2012 #5
RomneyLies Dec 2012 #9
1StrongBlackMan Dec 2012 #10
1StrongBlackMan Dec 2012 #12
Livluvgrow Dec 2012 #2
rhett o rick Dec 2012 #3
democrattotheend Dec 2012 #11
MannyGoldstein Dec 2012 #4
daa Dec 2012 #6
bemildred Dec 2012 #7
wandy Dec 2012 #8

Response to democrattotheend (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 10:15 AM

1. I think the hit the Republicans took during the last debt ceiling hostage crisis will belay that.

 

Just as the fiscal cliff will be blamed on them, failing to increase the debt ceiling will also be blamed on them.

If I'm Obama, I take a lesson from the last go around and continue in campaign mode regardless. Push people to force the GOP to increase the debt ceiling, pointing to the loss of AAA status on our debt the last time they did this.

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Response to RomneyLies (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 10:41 AM

5. I'm not so sure ...

Just as the fiscal cliff will be blamed on them, failing to increase the debt ceiling will also be blamed on them.


With the middleclass cuts off the table, the gop frame will be: "We gave you tax cuts; but we can't raise the debt ceiling without you making significant cuts to 'entitlements' ... It's all about the deficit, remember?"

And many on the right will fall in line.

I'm hoping, in the debt ceiling talks, the President Obama administration re-visits his Jobs Plan, as in "America needs the gop to raise the debt ceiling so that we can get people back to work."

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #5)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 12:31 PM

9. Obama said there will be no negotiations on the debt limit

 

Said so today, in fact.

So the fight is on.

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Response to RomneyLies (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 12:45 PM

10. I suspect that this ...

is a outcome of all the meetings with CEOs and romney folks.

It would make sense that President Obama would go to "the Markets" and tell them, "I anticipate a fight over raising the debt ceiling. We all remember the effect that the previous fight had on market certainty ... Well, I want to remove that uncertainty, and here's how you can help ..."

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #10)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 04:04 PM

12. Looks like ...

I may have called it!

The CEOs join other high-profile executives who are willing to chip in more. Following a meeting with President Barack Obama last week at the White House, executives emerged to endorse higher rates.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/05/top-two-percent-tax_n_2245596.html?utm_hp_ref=politics


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Response to democrattotheend (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 10:16 AM

2. For all the poker analagies

where is the word Bluff

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Response to democrattotheend (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 10:19 AM

3. You explained what you thought was a "better option", but not how we would get to it.

What would you suggest the president do? Tell the America people he changed his mind on supporting the current bill that Rep Pelosi is trying to force to the floor?

Also, giving up something today on the idea (or promise) that there is a better deal later has not work yet. The president is negotiating with terrorists.

I say take what you can get now and when they try to extort, force their hand and make it clear to the America people what's going on.

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Response to rhett o rick (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 01:07 PM

11. Of course he can't do that

But couldn't he refuse to cancel the defense cuts until they raise the debt ceiling? I am still a little murky on how this works.

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Response to democrattotheend (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 10:39 AM

4. The Republicans will implode soon, if we

hold tight. They know that they're in a death spiral, and the leadership will be deposed. The problem is we don't know what will come next.

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Response to democrattotheend (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 10:43 AM

6. Cut social security and Medicare and 2014 will be a blood bath.

I am 64 and my wife is almost 60. Where the fuck do we get another 2 years of money for health care? We paid, we earned, and planned retirement accordingly. Frozen pensions by corporations and now getting it stuck to us by dems is too much. So much for a mandate?

Compromise? Where was the compromise of the defense bill? To see who could raise it the most.

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Response to democrattotheend (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 10:46 AM

7. It's going to be every man for himself soon in Republican-land.

The question is will it happen soon enough to get Obama's offered deal passed before Xmas? Or do we go off the "cliff"? I don't think there is any chance at all that the Republicans will get themselves together enough to come up with a real alternative bill.

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Response to democrattotheend (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 10:58 AM

8. What does a smart poker player usually do when holding a bad hand?

But you see Teapublicans are not smart poker players. They will look at that 'vegetable soup' hand, look at their corporate masters and convince themselves that the Democratic party can't possibly have a better hand.
They will just double down.
Sure it might cause them some trouble. It might even cost them the next election. Still, disobeying their masters WILL cost them their next election.
To their pimps, one empty Teapublican suit is as good as any other. As long as their bidding is done.
What was it lord Grover said. Just needs five fingers and can work a pin.

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